Sometimes I wish there was relegation in American sports a la English soccer.  If not that, maybe a playoff between the 2005 USC and Texas teams versus the two worst teams from the NFC North...
Bears: In 2005, Chicago had two unproven QBs, no receivers, an aging O-line, a defense coming off a subpar year...and still were never seriously challenged for the division title.  Such is life in this division.  If Rex Grossman can stay healthy, the Bears will be favored to win again, as Grossman showed enough down the stretch to prove he's the man.  Brian Griese is a solid backup, and the O-line has held up remarkably well.  Their young and rapidly improving defense could be headed for a record-breaking season, anchored by Adewale Ogunleye and future Cantonian Brian Urlacher.  The running game is deep and first-rate, and if WR Mushin Muhammad can bounce back to his 2004 form, watch out.
Vikings: People have the Vikes tabbed as Super Bowl contenders.  Why?  I realize they're talented, but not nearly as much so as in previous years.  Brad Johnson is good but 38, the backs and receivers are unproven, and Pat Williams, Fred Smoot and Darren Sharper are being asked to carry a talented but very young defense.  Then there's the whole new coaching staff to deal with.  But they have strong special teams, and if Brad Childress can get the team to buy into a team concept of football (something that's eluded the Vikes thus far), they have a chance to equal 2005's 9-7 record, which might get them in the playoffs.
Lions: The hangover of Bobby Layne continues for a 55th season.  After going with an experienced coach for three years, they're going the opposite way with new coach Rod Marinelli.  Also, Jon Kitna comes aboard as the likely starting QB.  They'll be asked to get more out of a talented but underachieving group of backs and wideouts (2006 football resolution: no gratuitous hating on new OC Mike Martz).  Defensively, the talent is there, but the question is whether former stars CB Fernando Bryant and OLB Boss Bailey can stay healthy.  If they Lions can score, their superior special teams could be difference-makers.  But another losing season seems much more likely.
Packers: Bret Fa-fa-favre decided to come back for another year.  I realize he wants to go out a winner, but he won't do it with this team.  RB Ahman Green is injury prone, and there's no reliable backup.  With Javon Walker now catching passes in Denver, Donald Driver will now be facing constant double-teams.  The offensive line is good, but not good enough to cover up offensive ineptitude.  The defense made great strides under Jim Bates last year (and the Packers' brass rewarded Bates by passing on him for the head-coaching job.  Passing on a guy who, in addition to his work in Green Bay, more than acquitted himself as interim coach in Miami in 2004?  Great going, guys), but I don't see how they can take the unit to an elite level.  LB AJ Hawk may have been the most NFL-ready player in the draft, but the defense is terribly short on difference makers (the loss of CB Mike McKenzie is still being felt.  Lucky for the Packers, the NFC North is shite.  Unluckily, they may be the worst team in said division.

I realize I haven't been posting a lot recently, but having just watched the World Cup final...

I wasn't alive when Giants pitcher Juan Marichal started beating Dodgers catcher John Roseboro over the head with a baseball bat (in the days before catchers wore helmets).  But that's the only incident I think could come close to what French soccer legend Zinedine Zidane did.  To briefly summarize, he was having a heated argument with an Italian player, Zidane began to run away, then turned around and headbutted the Italian player in the sternum.  Zidane gets ejected, is unavailable for the shootout, and Italy wins the Cup.  It's a sad ending for a man who, no matter which country won the Cup, likely would have been named Most Outstanding Player.  As captain, how do you let your emotions get the best of you like that, in overtime no less?

Welcome to the NFL team-by-team rundowns (much more sporadic since I'm busy all the time in PA).  Also, I drove to Wegmans last night before realizing you can't buy beer at groceries here.  Who designed the blue laws here?

Hey, football is more fun with the Redskins winning, and Joe Gibbs worked his magic again in '05 (what, you were doubting him?).  For 2006?  It's tough to say.  They look formidable on paper, but they alwas seem to.  Overpaying for Antwaan Randle El will help the return game and give Mark Brunell a second option.  Clinton Portis is eccentric to say the least, but he gets results so you can't really complain too much.  The defensive front sevn is what scares me.  Losing Lavar Arrington to the Giants, even as a bench player, will hurt more than they think; I don't really see a "motor" guy among them the same way Arrington was when he put his mind to it.  The secondary, anchored by rising star Carlos Rogers, will be tested early and often, but should prove to be the strength of the defense.
The surprise 2005 NFC East Champ New York Football Giants will be right in the thick of things again, provided Eli Manning continues to improve and the players don't revolt against head coach Tom Coughlin--neither of which are guarantees.  RB Tiki Barber has to have another great year, or else Manning may collapse under the pressure of a subpar O-line and enigmatic receiving corps (Plaxico Burress Jeremy Shockey= prima donna central).  Arrington will combine with Michael Strahan to form a potent front seven, a necessity in such a run-happy division.
Eagles: It looks like another rebuilding year for Andy, Donovan, and T.O. (kidding, of course).  Seriously, this team got old in a hurry last year, and injuries to every running back on the team (notably star Brian Westbrook) probably doomed the season with or without Owens.  Can Westbrook return healthy this year to take the pressure off McNabb?  If not, he'll be in for another rough year, and despite being a star with and without T.O., will face more criticism from Eagles fans.  Defensively, they're asking a lot of some overy young players to revitalize a pass rush that recorded only 29 sacks last year.  Whether the young but talented secondary can bounce back after a subpar season will determine whether 2005 was an aberration (my gut feeling: it wasn't).
Armed with ample cap room and the sense that it may be Coach Parcells' last go-round, the Cowboys signed T.O. and kicker Mike Vanderjagt.  At first glance it seems unlikely that two headcases could put Dallas over the top, but the team was close last year (9-7), has a proven QB in Bledsoe, a strong running game provided Julius Jones is healthy, and top-notch personnel to run the trademark 3-4 defense.  The big question--will DE Greg Ellis' contract dispute be a distraction?  If they can keep the dispute from affecting team chemistry, and Vanderjagt can provide the extra push in the kicking game to win the close games, the 'Boys have a very good shot to win a division title to send Parcells out on a winning note.

1. Oklahoma: Much like college basketball this past year, parity will reign supreme in the 2006 college football season.  Every major contending team has serious weaknesses.  Which is why Oklahoma is #1 this year.  Whereas oft-mentioned title contenders Notre Dame and Ohio State are rebuilding their defenses, and perennial powers Texas and USC are reloading at skill positions, these are taken care of at Oklahoma.  Adrian Peterson is finally healthy, and QB Rhett Bomar showed incedible poise during the Sooners' 6-1 finish, including a win at Nebraska and whipping Oklahoma State in Norman.  Bob Stoops says this is the best defense in his tenure at OU--and as Mack Brown knows, that's a scary thing.  The schedule is reasonable, and if they can get out of the Red River Shootout 5-0, it could be another special year.
2. Auburn: So how did that "not firing Tommy Tuberville" work out for the Tigers?  Over the past two years, they're 22-3 and have great potential for this year.  Tuberville did a great job replacing all the departing talent from the undefeated 2004 team (Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, Carlos Rogers, Jason Campbell) and now the new stars have a year of leadership under their belts.  The SEC is never easy, but the schedule is favorable, with eight home games.  It gets tough down the stretch, with the regular-season finale against Alabama in Tuscaloosa and then the SEC title game.  But make it through that gauntlet, and they'll be in position to play for the national title.
3. Notre Dame: Apparently, I'm the only person who has the Irish rated lower than #2.  The defense is just too worrisome for me to put them higher than #3, and Charlie Weis hasn't proven he can coach defense.  But the offense, led by Heisman favorite Brady Quinn and All-America wideout Jeff Samarzdija, should be good enough to keep them on the winning end of a lot of 35-28 games.  The big question: can the Irish beat USC at the LA Coliseum, something they haven't done since 2000?  The Trojans were upset at how long the grass was at ND Stadium last October, and will have the Coliseum grass cut very short for maximum speed.  Whether the Irish can overcome the Trojans' inherent speed advantage will determine whether they'll head back to Arizona for the Fiesta Bowl or Jacksonville for the Gator.
4. California: This is the surprise pick, I realize.  But the last time the Trojans had to rebuild (or reload, more accurately) was 2003, and the result was Cal beating them in triple-overtime.  Like that game led by QB Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Longshore is inexperienced but the real deal, and will be able to effectively run the new option elements within the traditional Cal spread offense.  Tedford has coached big-time football before (leading Oregon to a #2 ranking in 2001), and the big-play offense combined with a solid defense could bring the Pac-10 title to Berkeley for the first time in 30 years.
5. Ohio State: Before you start, this seemingly low ranking is not due to my undying hatred of the Buckeyes.  Rather, it's the fact that they have to replace 9 starters--including all-everything MLB AJ Hawk--from last year's amazing defense.  Plus, the schedule is brutal: at Texas, at Iowa, home against Penn St. and Michigan.  But you can't count out a team with Troy Smith and Ted Ginn Jr, and they'll be good for at least 10 wins and maybe 2-3 in the Heisman balloting, but asking even them to outscore teams taht good (and overcome Jim Tressel's tendency to micromanage big games) is too much to ask.

National Title Game: Oklahoma (Big 12/BCS #1) vs. Auburn (SEC/BCS #2)
Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame (at-large) vs. TCU (Mtn. West/mid-major at large)
Sugar:  USC (at-large) vs. Texas (at-large)
Orange: Miami (ACC) vs. Louisville (Big East)
Rose: Ohio St. (Big Ten) vs. Cal (Pac-10)
Capital One: Florida (SEC #2) vs. Michigan (Big Ten #2)
Cotton: LSU (SEC #3) vs. Nebraska (Big 12 #2)
Gator: Clemson (ACC #2) vs. West Virginia (Big East #2)
Outback: Iowa (Big Ten #3) vs. Georgia (SEC #4)
Holiday: Oregon (Pac-10 #2) vs. Nebraska (Big 12 #3)

Let's be absolutely clear what transpired last night: Dwayne Wade saved Pat Riley from himself.  Yes, perhaps only Riley could have won with the motley crew he put together, and winning the title shows he still has the touch (will he stick around when the rebuilding process starts?  Ha!).  Yes, it was nice to see veterans like Gary Payton and Alonzo Mourning get rings, and to see Shaq be able to win without Kobe.  And I don't think anyone thought D-Wade would carry a team of aging superstars on his back for a whole series, but he did and is truly the prize catch of the 2003 draft class (sorry Lebron).
So what do I mean by what I said in the first sentence?  Wade was around last year.   So was Shaq, and so was a supporting cast at least the equal of the one that won.  Had Wade not been hurt for Game 7 of the '05 Eastern Conference Finals, they may have won the title last year.  Who's to say that Stan Van Gundy couldn't have coached this team during the playoffs?  I know it's arguing a counterfactual, but he presided over one of the greatest two-year turnarounds in league history, taking a shite team that Riley washed his hands of in 2003 to being 57-25 in 2004-05, and he should have had the full year to try to make a title winner out of the Heat.  He successfully got Shaq and D-Wade to coexist; he never got the chance to show whether he could have wored the same magic with the new Heat.  But Riley had to prove he still had it, and he not-so-subtly pushed aside a good man, one who will land a new job and make a team, perhaps a Heat rival, very successful.
Now that the Heat have won the title, people will remember Riley as some sort of hero, coming in to save the day in South Beach.  In reality, I'm much less impressed.

The last part will have teams 1-5 and my picks on most major and mid-major bowls
6. Ohio State: Had Vince Young stayed, the 'Horns would have been a strong favorite to repeat.  But a talent like Young doesn't materialize overnight (hell, it took Young 1 1/2 seasons to become a star).  Nonetheless, the cupboard is far from bare for the 'Horns.  They have seven starters returning on a tough defense that ranked 8th in scoring and 10th overall.  The schedule is reasonable, with their toughest foes either visiting Austin (Ohio State and Texas A&M) or Dallas (Oklahoma).  If they can beat the Buckeyes and Sooners, a national title run is not out of the question.
7. Louisville: I'm not going to go crazy a la ABC football meathead Aaron Taylor and pick them to go to the BCS title game as he did last year.  But the offense and special teams are strong, and 17 of 22 starters return f rom last year's team, which was good enough to go to a New Year's Day bowl.  The only question is the offensive line, which has to replace three starters.  Local boy Brian Brohm is the best QB to play for the Cardinals since Johnny Unitas.  The defense has been rapidly improving, and the entire back seven returns.  Like so many other teams in the top 10, they have a favorable schedule, with Miami and WVU coming to Lawvul.  This should help bring the Cards to a BCS game for the first time.
8. USC: Despite only one undisputed national crown (2004), the Trojans' 52-5 run over the last 4 1/2 years has been crazy, coming close to Nebraska's run from 1993-97 (when the 'Huskers went 59-3).  But two Heisman winners and five of the first 45 NFL draft picks are gone.  That's a tall order, even with two potential All-America wideouts in Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett, plus three consecutive #1 recruiting classes and tons of young talent on the defensive front seven.  The schedule is absolutely brutal, although Nebraska, Cal and Notre Dame allcome to Los Angeles, and starting QB John David Booty has never seen more than mop-up duty.  Stranger things have happened--and Pete Carroll is certainly capable of making magic--but it looks more and more that USC's run as the nation's best team has come to an end.
9. Florida: You gotta feel bad for the SEC.  The conference is so strong top-to-bottom that they just knock each other out of national title contention.  This appears to be the case Florida, as they have to play both Tennessee and Auburn on the road.  They have talent, to be sure, but it's unclear taht enough players are equipped to play the spread option, most notably pro-style, pocket QB Chris Leak, who will be a very good, if undersized, pro QB but can't handle the quick releases and beatings a spread requires.  A rebuilt secondary won't help matters either.  Look ahead, Gator fans, to 2007, which should be much brighter.
10. Miami: This is more a pick that Florida will beat Florida St. in their season-ending rivalry game than of Miami's prowess.  Also, the Coastal division of the ACC is much weaker this year than the Atlantic (the latter featuring FSU, BC, and Clemson).  However, Larry Coker is fighting for his job, and that should provide extra motivation.  QB Kyle Wright appears to have everything necessary to join the long ranks of great Miami QBs who subsequently flop in the pros.  The defense ranked fourth nationally, and may only be better this year.  It had better be, or else an ACC title will continue to remain elusive (funny how Miami's failure to dominate the ACC seems strangely reminiscent of how Penn State failed to dominate the Big Ten in the early '90s).

Welcome to Jim's college football preview, this will be done in 3 parts.  Given how many problems and shortcomings every team has, this was particularly difficult.  Today, I give teams 11-25.
11. Michigan: On paper, this team is the most talented of any in the country.  QB Chad Henne is a Heisman darkhorse, as is RB Mike Hart.  The special teams, anchored by Steve Breaston, are the best in the nation.  But it's Michigan, and ever since their 1997 national title run things seem to fall apart for the Maize and Blue every year.  Can new coordinators make the offense and defense live up to their potential?  Has Lloyd Carr lost his touch?  Can they survive a brutal schedule (Notre Dame, Penn State, and Ohio State all on the road)?  If they can prevent the big plays that burned them so badly, a Big Ten title isn't out of the question.  If not, 8-4 is a very real possibility.
12. Texas Christian: The Horned Frogs were an inexcusable loss against Southern Methodist from going to the BCS last year.  Most of the talent on both sides of the ball, led by QB Jeff Ballard, returns and there is enviable depth to run Gary Patterson's spread offense.  The defense needs some rebuilding, especially in the secondary (which was only mediocre to begin with), but keeping teams at bay, even in the high-octane Mountain West, has never been a problem for TCU.  The first four games--at Baylor, home against Texas Tech and BYU, at Utah--are brutal, but survive those and they could be heading for a big payday come January.
13. West Virginia: I know people are touting the Mountaineers as a nationl title contender, and I just don't see it.  Despite the obvious explosive offense, led by QB Pat White and super RB Steve Slaton--not to mention Rich Rodriguez's offensive genius--the defense simply has too many questions, with only one starter returning in the secondary--not a good sign when your team runs a 3-3-5 defense.  Four of their last five games are against pass-happy Big East foes.  And their Sugar Bowl victory over Georgia ensures they'll have an "X" on their back all season.  10-2 is defnitely possible, but beyond that is probably too much to ask.
14. LSU: Again, like Michigan, the team's talent is among the best in the country.  QB JaMarcus Russell is arguably the best in the SEC, and he has talent returning at all the skill positions, not to mention a massive offensive line.  But can the nation's 3rd-ranked defense hold up depsite losing two All-America lineman?  The secondary should be excellent, as both safeties are among the best in the nation.  Stopping the pass should be easy, but what about the run?  Potential springs eternal, given 2005's top 5 recruiting class, but only player on the front seven (DE Chase Pittman) has proven anything.  In the rugged SEC, that won't be enough.
15. Clemson: As prolific as he was, QB Charlie Whitehurst couldn't pull off the close games.  This proved devastating last year, as their four losses were by a mere 14 points.  In steps Will Proctor, who takes over a very talented, experienced Clemson offense in the hopes of getting them over the hump.  He has the luxury of all five O-linemen returning along with two running backs and a wideout.  The defense improved markedly as the season progressed.  All three linebackers return, and tehy'll be needed to support a very young secondary.  The schedule is brutal early on, with September road trips to Boston College and Florida State on consecutive Saturdays.  But the team is tough and the league is down; an ACC title or BCS berth is not at all out of the question.

Teams #16-25:
16. Georgia
17. Oregon
18. Nebraska
19. Iowa
20. Utah
21. Florida State
22. Penn State
23. Boston College
24. Texas Tech
25. Tulsa

Only two teams have made the playoffs every year since the strike ended--the Yankees and the Braves.  Every year, especially with the Braves, people think that the party will finally end, and every year they're back atop their division, and 2005 saw managers Joe Torre and Bobby Cox do the best jobs of their careers.  But this year, it looks like it really might be the end game.  For the Braves, it's 2/5ths of the way thru the season, but they're already 10 games behind a Mets team that appears to be the real deal (they're also 6 1/2 behind the Phillies, but you can always count on the Phils to collapse at some point).  The pitching just isn't there, and unless Glavine and Pedro get hurt or get old in a hurry, the Mets may finally break the Braves decade-and-a-half stranglehold on their division (NL West 1991-93, East 1995-2005).  The Yankees are 9 games above .500, but with long-term injuries to Sheffield and Matsui, along with Mussina being the only consistent battle-tested pitcher to go for them down the stretch, and the Blue Jays getting AJ Burnett back, and the Red Sox hanging on them even with Papi struggling, the Yanks may actually finish out of the postseason, something unfathomable to most people in spring training.

On the other hand, the Tigers, after 63 games, still have baseball's best record, and they have the pitching depth to contend down the stretch, even in a division as defiantly rugged as the AL Central (no matter what their records, playing one-third of your games against the ChiSox, Tribe, and Twins is brutal).  The only mark of concern is their poor record against Boston, NY, and Chicago, but chalk that up to inexperience playing in big-time situations (Kenny Rogers and Ivan Rodriguez excepted).  The Tigers also don't have huge expectations, having not had a winning season since 1993.  Their fans would be disappointed, but still happy, with a 90-72 season if that's how it happened.  The Reds, despite losing three straight, are still very much in the mix.  Pujols' injury puts the Cardinals' status very much in jeopardy and if not the Cards, is any team worthy of winning that division?  No, so why not the Reds' lineup of big bashers and a suddenly solid rotation (that bullpen is still very much a concern).  If Pujols is out for another couple months, don't be surprised if 87-89 wins is enough to win the division, and don't be surprised if it's the Reds who do it.

So Steve McNair officially became a Baltimore Raven yesterday.  I'm not looking forward to the Steelers having to face him twice.  He did, after all, take a moribund, faceless Oilers/Titans team to the franchise's only Super Bowl and two division titles, winning with such class and dignity that even I professed a grudging admiration for him.  In Baltimore, he's reunited with star wideout Derrick Mason, and potentially Jeff Fisher in 2007 if the Titans continue to screw up and fire the most underrated coach of the past 10 years.  His addition suddenly makes the Ravens challenging the Bengals and Steelers slightly more than the pipe dream it was.
But the real story is about how, in today's NFL, a player can be the face of a franchise, guiding them through tough times, and still get thrown under the bus.  He did absolutely nothing wrong, and yet the Titans embarassed him by not allowing him to work out at their facilities with his (at the time) teammates.  This was after they drafted Vince Young, who with the proper tutoring has the potential to be the next McNair rather than the next Mike Vick.  McNair has a friendship with Young and would have been happy to provide that tutoring.  Now, Billy Volek is the most accomplished QB on the roster, and Fisher is a defensive specialist.  Norm Chow?  We'll see how he does, but it would have been easier for him with a QB who teamed with him for two national titles (Leinart).  Bottom line: this looks bad for the Titans, and their fanbase (which has proved to be quickly rabid) may turn away to some extent.  But the only good that can come out of this is that the McNair incident may be the line; teams may only be able to do so much in terms of crappy treatment of players.