Metaverse = Web 3.0

Why read this post? The new argument here is that Web 3.0 will continue to evolve off of Web 1.0 and 2.0 into an even more integrated platform.  As markets, communication, information, technology, and interface evolve and exert pressure and influence on the broader web, Web 3.0 will evolve to "feel" like one seamless integrated 3D world rather than a diverse set of websites.

Points Discussed: 

• What is Web 2.0?
• What is Web 3.0?
• Web 3.0 is a new ICT.
• Why will Web 3.0 feel more like one integrated experience than many different experiences?  

To understand what Web 3.0 is, we must first understand Web 2.0. 

Wikipedia says, "Web 2.0, a phrase coined by O'Reilly Media in 2004, refers to a supposed second-generation of Internet-based services — such as social networking sites, wikis, communication tools, and folksonomies — that let people collaborate and share information online in previously unavailable ways."

Web 2.0 has facilitated the evolution and development of highly efficient and financially/socially lucrative new structures like Facebook, MySpace, Friendster, YouTube, ITunes, Hollywood Stock Exchange, Digg, Public Insight Journalism, EBay, Monster, Lulu, and many more.

Given that the evolution of Communication, Information and Technology is accelerating, we should expect Web 3.0 to emerge faster than we might expect or feel that it will happen.

So then, how do we define Web 3.0?  While there has been a great deal of debate about this term, I tend to agree with the assessment of Tim Berners Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web that "I think maybe when you've got an overlay of scalable vector graphics - everything rippling and folding and looking misty - on Web 2.0 and access to a semantic Web integrated across a huge space of data, you'll have access to an unbelievable data resource."  That being Web 3.0. 

I think the first part, "an overlay of scalable vector graphics - everything rippling and folding and looking misty", is synonymous with 3D virtual worlds like Everquest, IMVU, There, & SecondLife. 

Part Two, "on Web 2.0 and access to a semantic Web integrated across a huge space of data", makes a lot of sense to me because it fits with the notion that Virtual Worlds are fundamentally a new Interactive Communication Technology (ICTs) that has the ability to integrate all previous ICTs.  (See this earlier post)

Already, virtual worlds are allowing this to occur.  My experiences in the rapidly exploding virtual world Second Life (SL) have convinced me that Web 2.0 will soon be fully useable via the SL platform.  When that occurs, as Berners Lee puts it, "you'll have access to an unbelievable data resource."

But the question remains whether there will be many different virtual worlds, just as there are many different websites out there, or if all of these worlds will evolve into one super Metaverse.

The answer, I think, is both A and B.

While there will be multiple competing platforms, (there already are), my imagination suggests to me that in the end, regardless of whether or not these virtual worlds are fundamentally designed to be compatible with one another, they will "feel" like one giant world to the end user.  Already, the World Wide Web is beginning to feel more like a single location than a set of multiple locations.  When I use Google, it feels as though I am using one huge website rather than accessing lots of individual parts.  I believe that a few years form now the perception of seamlessness of the 3D web will put this current feeling to shame.  The 3D web will feel like one gigantic world we can all fly through. For a variety of reasons, the web will evolve to feel more like the real world.  New software that allows for seamless transfer of POV from one virtual world to another will end up being the dominant new internet browser.  People will perceive that they are teleporting from one location to another, rather than starting up a brand new experience.  While this may seem like an overly-technical distinction, I think it is an important one because it will greatly affect the design of new virtual worlds.

By designing virtual worlds that are designed to function as part of the broader Metaverse, world builders will appease coveted surfers by reducing the amount of time and effort required to get to the information and experiences they seek.  Those sites that do not integrate will ultimately lose out on human traffic. 

In the end, the benefits of network effects and the desire to attract human surfers, on a local level, will force/condition the development of a single broader Metaverse. 

And so Web 3.0 will be viewed as one broad interoperable world rather than an assortment of many little worlds.

Hence, The Metaverse = Web 3.0

IS TOTAL HUMAN KNOWLEDGE INCREASING EXPONENTIALLY?

I found very poignant this reply to my Convergent Exponential Curves post: 

"Information includes words, phrases and new ways of describing things. To truly state that information is exponentially increasing would be to say that we are finding new facts about the universe at an exponential rate. … Is information knowledge?" 

It would not surprise me to learn that we are in fact discovering new facts about the universe at an exponential rate.  It is fundamentally in our interests to do so and seems to be happening automatically.  If we are getting smarter and generating more and better tools then it follows that we can unlock the secrets of life and the cosmos at an accelerating rate.  This seems to be happening bottom-up, in a broadly distributed manner as scientists, scholars, business folks, inventors etc. all strive to do more with less.  As they reduce the amount of Matter Energy Space and Time required for a process (see Buckminster Fuller and John Smart), and essentially MEST Compress, this allows them to behave in a more complex manner, perform more operations per MEST unit, combine technologies and forms in new ways, etc.  MEST Compression lets us create new tools for quantifying the universe, allows us to continue MEST Compression, and allows us to extrapolate physical laws and information by enabling complex new behavior.  It seems that the compulsive human instinct to MEST Compress is a primary driver of broader accelerating change.  (Check out John Smart's Laws of Complex Systems for more on this http://www.accelerationwatch.com/laws.html.)  

Is information knowledge?  I think not completely.  I believe that knowledge requires context and a consciousness component.  Information is knowledge if it is useful to a human, organism or agent that can then apply it.  Interestingly, if Comm, Tech, and IQ are also on exponential curves, then it follows that our collective human Knowledge too is evolving at an exponential rate. 

As we MEANINGFULLY QUANTIFY our system at an accelerating rate, it would make sense that Knowledge is also accelerating.

4) Why is the Metaverse so Important?

When I first posted about the Millennial Toolkit on slfuturesalon.blogs.com I received the critique that the toolkit is overly communications-centric and discounts other evolving technologies.  Being that this was a solid and valid point, I then acknowledged my bias toward communications, which is due to the fact that I regularly work in the communications field.  Of course other harder technologies will play a huge role in the ongoing development of the species.  But nevertheless I find myself sticking to the belief that communications technology, particularly the emerging ICT called the Metaverse or 3D/4D web, will be the most important driver of change in the near-term (say 5-10 years). 

While all technology interdependently co-evolves, ICTs (technologies like cave paintings, chants, whistling, songs, money, language, books, the telegraph, radio, television, the world wide web) have historically caused/allowed humans to broadly change their socio-economic behavior.  The Metaverse is a technology that 1) for the first time in human history can incorporate all previous ICTs, 2) has the power to dramatically affect/empower Communication (superior comm. Platform, allows arrays and recombination of all previous ICTs), Human Neurons (allows news styles of and ultimately quicker learning), Information (allows for new dynamic and contextual information storage), Technology (many new soft and hard technologies will evolve and be developed in virtual worlds, the Metaverse is a new hyper-fluid prototyping substrate, it also allows for the faster development technologies externally by enabling quicker economic behavior and communication), and 3) it is being developed and is diffusing at lightning speed, FASTER THAN ANY PREVIOUS ICT, which proves its utility to the economy and the species. 

Yes, the evolution of the metaverse depends on the evolution of many other technologies, and yet it can be viewed as a technology or domain in and of itself.  Therefore, I think it's okay to view it as the primary driver of change that will probably play an integral role in the next American Fourth Turning (Strauss and Howe) and a much broader planetary shift into the Information Age.

2) WHAT IS A HUMAN?

We need to more systematically define the term humanity.  My hypothesis is that humans should be defined as an evolutionary system that consists of Communication (C), Human Brains (H), Information (I), Technology (T), and physical Environment (E).  I cannot think of any othe quantifiable domains that are not included in the above list.

By disregarding any one of these domains, one fundamentally leaves out an essential component of humanity.    By quantifying humans based on these domain areas, we can refine our view of what it means to be human and better forecast human behavior.  Just to name a few, the fields of Psychology, Human Resources and Career Counseling could benefit from such a systematic approach to defining humans.  (We can already see that these fields are naturally evolving toward such a systematic view.)  While such an approach may at first seem cold, it would not appear that way if it resulted in more successful self-actualization for many of us.

3) Are Humans Changing Exponentially?

If A) humans arise from a combination of C,H,I,T & E (see #2 below) and B) C,H,I & T are co-evolving at an exponential rate (see #1 below), then is it possible that humanity itself changing at an exponential rate?   

Thoughts:

1)   The one domain that is clearly not changing at an exponential rate is Environment, which can ultimately trump the evolution of C,H,I, & T.  An atomic bomb, global warming, a sudden shift in the behavior of other species, a mass phytoplankton death, or a mantle plume could all quickly put a stop to exponential human-centric growth.  Or through some other mechanism(s) that we do not yet understand, the environment could put the brakes on human evolution.  Or perhaps we will run out of computational phase space and everything will rapidly decelerate.  The later does not seem likely considering the vast amount of math and operational possibilities yet to be uncovered. 

2)   If CHIT is evolving at an exponential rate then we can expect a corresponding shift in human form.  This notion seems to be supported by many futurists, sci-fi prognosticators, transhumanists, and by rapid developments in fields like robotics, neurology, and computation.  Check out this interactive Wired diagram of the evolving human http://blog.wired.com/images/bionicanimation.html.

3)   The Futurist/Transhumanist Ego Bias:  Many of the future scenarios that people have speculated fail to take into account the recursive evolution of Human Brains with Comm, Information and Technology.  It is natural that folks tend to project a current image of the self into a complex future environment without adjusting the fundamental nature of the self.  This is a perspective based Ego Bias that we must get past when speculating about the future.  If C, H, I & T are co-evolving then we must take care to adjust H proportionately to C, I & T progress.  We can't have a crazy sci-fi future and continue to exist in our current state.  As we fundamentally change the world we are fundamentally changed.

 :)