Folks,
FYI, the WMD Commission's report (below) will be released later this week online at:
http://www.preventwmd.orgJames
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New York Times
December 1, 2008
Panel Fears Use of Unconventional Weapon
By ERIC SCHMITT
WASHINGTON — An independent commission has concluded that terrorists will most likely carry out an attack with biological, nuclear or other unconventional weapons somewhere in the world in the next five years unless the United States and its allies act urgently to prevent that.
In a report to be released this week, the Congressionally mandated panel found that with countries like Iran and North Korea pursuing nuclear weapons programs, and with the risk of poorly secured biological pathogens growing, unconventional threats are fast outpacing the defenses arrayed to confront them.
"America's margin of safety is shrinking, not growing," the bipartisan panel concluded.
Prepared before last week's deadly terrorist attacks in Mumbai — which American officials say were most likely carried out by Pakistani militant groups based in Kashmir — the report also singled out Pakistan as a top security priority for the coming Obama administration.
"Were one to map terrorism and weapons of mass destruction today, all roads would intersect in Pakistan," the report states, citing the country's terrorist haven along the border with Afghanistan and its tense relations with nuclear rival India.
"Pakistan is an ally, but there is a grave danger it could also be an unwitting source of a terrorist attack on the United States — possibly with weapons of mass destruction," the report said.
The report is the result of a six-month study by the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, which Congress created last spring in keeping with one of the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission.
The nine-member panel received classified briefings, conducted several site visits, including meetings in Russia, and interviewed more than 250 government and independent experts in several countries.
The New York Times obtained a copy of the report's 18-page executive summary. Details from draft chapters of the report on the threat of bioterrorism were published Sunday by The Washington Post.
The panel's 13 recommendations focus on fighting the threat of bioterrorism, including improved bioforensic capabilities, and strengthening international organizations, like the International Atomic Energy Agency, to address the nuclear threat. It also calls for a comprehensive approach for dealing with Pakistan.
Over all, the findings and recommendations seek to serve as a road map for the Obama administration.
"Unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency, it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013," the report states in the opening sentence of the executive summary.
Commission officials said that date is a judgment based on scores of interviews and classified briefings conducted by members of the panel — led by former Senators Bob Graham, Democrat of Florida, and Jim Talent, Republican of Missouri — but does not represent a new formal assessment by the United States intelligence agencies.
Several of the recommendations are not new and have been pursued with varying degrees of success by the Bush administration. On Pakistan, for example, the panel urges the Obama administration to work with Pakistan to eliminate that country's terrorist havens, secure its nuclear and biological materials, counter extremist ideologies and constrain a "nascent nuclear arms race in Asia."
But the panel is banking on the fact that some of its Democratic members — including Wendy Sherman, Graham Allison and Tim Roemer — have advised President-elect Barack Obama on national security issues, and could serve in senior positions in his administration.
Ms. Sherman, for instance, is one of two former Clinton administration officials leading the transition team at the State Department for Mr. Obama.
In its wide-ranging findings, the panel faulted the Bush administration for failing to devote the same degree of high-level attention and resources to the threat of a bioterrorist attack as it has to prevent nuclear proliferation and a nuclear attack.
The report calls for conducting a major review of the program to secure dangerous pathogens and tighten oversight of high-containment laboratories.
The commission urges the Obama administration to work to halt the Iranian and North Korean nuclear weapons programs, backing up any diplomatic initiatives with "the credible threat of direct action" — code for military action, a commission official said.
Two weeks ago, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran had produced roughly enough nuclear material to make, with added purification, a single atom bomb.
The commission also criticized the administration and Congress for not organizing themselves more effectively to combat the threat of unconventional weapons. The report recommended a single White House-level office or individual responsible for directing the nation's policy to prevent the spread of unconventional weapons and their possible use by terrorists.
Like the 9/11 Commission, this panel called for overhauling the jurisdiction of the Congressional committee that reviews the proliferation of unconventional weapons. "Congressional oversight is dysfunctional," the report concluded.