Thank you to everyone who tuned in to the Oscar Oscar program on Blog Talk Radio for last night's Prediction Special.  If you weren't able to listen live you can still check it out using the following link:

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/oscaroscar/2009/02/20/The-81st-Annual-Oscar-Prediction-Special

At least take a few minutes to listen to the very beginning when I perform a song parody medley in the style of Billy Crystal when he hosted the Oscars in the 90's.  There's also another special song parody number immediately preceding our discussion of the Best Director category in the final hour of the broadcast.

MY PREDICTIONS

Last year I correctly predicted 15 awards including every major category.  Here's what I'm thinking will win this year:

PICTURE: Slumdog Millionaire
DIRECTOR: Danny Boyle "Slumdog Millionaire"
ACTOR: Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"
ACTRESS: Kate Winslet "The Reader"
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Penelope Cruz "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Dustin Lance Black "Milk"
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Simon Beaufoy "Slumdog Millionaire"
ANIMATED FEATURE: WALL-E
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Man On Wire
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Waltz With Bashir (Israel)
ORIGINAL SONG: Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman "Down To Earth" - "WALL-E"
MUSIC SCORE: A.R. Rahman "Slumdog Millionaire"
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Anthony Dod Mantle "Slumdog Millionaire"
FILM EDITING: Chris Dickens "Slumdog Millionaire"
ART DIRECTION: Donald Graham Burt and Victor J. Zolfo "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
COSTUME DESIGN: Michael O'Connor "The Duchess"
MAKEUP: J. Greg Cannom "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
SOUND MIXING: Tom Myers, Michael Semanick and Ben Burtt "WALL-E"
SOUND EDITING: Richard King "The Dark Knight"
VISUAL EFFECTS: Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT: The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306
ANIMATED SHORT FILM: This Way Up
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM: Spielzeugland (Toyland)


HOW I WOULD VOTE

PICTURE: Milk
DIRECTOR: David Fincher "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
ACTOR: Richard Jenkins "The Visitor"
ACTRESS: Kate Winslet "The Reader"
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Penelope Cruz "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Martin McDonagh "In Bruges"
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Eric Roth and Robin Swicord "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
ANIMATED FEATURE: WALL-E
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Man On Wire
ORIGINAL SONG: A.R. Rahman "Jaiho" - "Slumdog Millionaire"
MUSIC SCORE: Alexandre Desplat "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Claudio Miranda "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
FILM EDITING: Elliot Graham "Milk"
ART DIRECTION: Donald Graham Burt and Victor J. Zolfo "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
COSTUME DESIGN: Michael O'Connor "The Duchess"
MAKEUP: Mike Elizalde and Thom Floutz "Hellboy 2: The Golden Army"
SOUND MIXING: Tom Myers, Michael Semanick and Ben Burtt "WALL-E"
SOUND EDITING: Richard King "The Dark Knight"
VISUAL EFFECTS: Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
ANIMATED SHORT FILM: Oktapodi

*********
UPDATE: I improved on last year's total tally by correctly predicting 18 Oscar winners this year, but unfortunately one of the six that I missed was a major award (Best Actor, but I was glad to see Sean Penn win since I would have voted for his performance in Milk before Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler)..

Thank you to everyone who responded with comforting words to my previous entry.  If I could give each of you a tiny carrot to munch on, I totally would.

The Grammy Awards are this weekend and it occurred to me that I never posted my favorite music albums of 2008.  Though 2008 may have been a lackluster year for film, I can't say the same for music.  I could have easily done a list of my 20 favorite albums and still had a few great ones left over.

If you want to check out my favorite albums from the past few years, here are the links to those entries:

2007: There's more to life than movies
2006: The 12 Albums on My Top 10 List
2005: Anal Bum Cover!

And like those prior entries, I'm going to start out with listing a few albums from 2007 that I certainly would have included if I had the opportunity to have listened to them before writing last year's blog.  Throughout the blog you can click on the band names to be directed to their profile page here on MySpace, and also click on the song titles to view the music video or hear streaming audio.

Bishop Allen The Broken String

I only recently discovered Bishop Allen, an indie rock band from Brooklyn consisting of Justin Rice and Christian Rudder who lived together on Bishop Allen Drive (hence the name) in Cambridge, Massachusetts after attending Harvard University where they were DJs on WHRB's punk/indie program Record Hospital before forming a hardcore punk band called The Pissed Officers.  They later formed Bishop Allen when they moved to Virginia (where I currently reside) five years later.  Bishop Allen is far from hardcore punk, and should be enjoyed by anyone who prefers their alternative music with a more natural acoustic rhythm.  Their song Click Click Click Click has been on my profile playlist for the past couple days.

The Feeling Twelve Stops and Home

This British pop band earned some recognition on American airwaves for their hit single Sewn, but this freshman effort is full of equally great songs.  The album was actually released in the summer of 2006 in the UK, but didn't get a US release until February of 2007.  Their sound makes me think of what Electric Light Orchestra might have sounded like if they were more in tune with the influence of The Beatles.  I haven't had a chance to listen to all of their followup album Join With Us that was released in the UK last February and reached #1 on the UK charts, but I did notice the title track playing during a recent visit to Old Navy so a stateside release should be eminent.

Pinback Autumn of the Seraphs

There isn't any band I've seen live more often than San Diego alternative band Pinback.  I even went to their album release appearance at Lou's Records on 9/11/07 but didn't take the time to stand in line to buy the album because I didn't want to lose my prime spot in the outdoor performing area.  It took a while for things to get started and there were some technical difficulties that caused an even longer delay when it interrupted their second song, but it was all worth it.  They've never rocked harder than on opening track From Nothing To Nowhere, but my favorite track on this album would have to be Good To Sea.

FAVORITE ALBUMS OF 2008

1. Dr. Dog Fate

I was not familiar with this indie band out of Philadelphia until a friend of mine passed me a copy of this, their fifth album, earlier this year and I immediately sought out the rest of their discography.  None of it is as good as Fate, but that's only because Fate is not only my favorite album from 2008 but I would include it among my favorie albums of the decade (see the complete list in the music section of my profile page).  Their psychedelic sound is reminiscent of the best music of the 60's and is something you should definitely take the time to check out starting with their recent video for Hang On and the video for My Old Ways from their previous album We All Belong.
FAVORITE TRACKS: The Breeze, The Old Days, From

2. TV on the Radio Dear Science

If you've checked out any other lists of the best albums of 2008, chances are this album was included.  This experimental rock band from New York was formed in 2001 by Tunde Adebimpe and David Andrew Sitek with the self-released EP titled OK Calculator.  They signed with Interscope two years ago with the album Return To Cookie Mountain featuring several guest appearances including Blonde Redhead (a group that was on this list last year) and David Bowie.  This album, however, is a much more monumental achievement that is equally artistic and lively.  Every track is distinguishable and nothing is too oddly experimental to seem convoluted.  Now five members strong, TV on the Radio have evolved into a music force to be reckoned with.  Just check out their videos for Dancing Choose and Golden Age if you don't believe me.
FAVORITE TRACKS: Halfway Home, Red Dress, Shout Me Out

3. Coldplay Viva la Vida / Prospekt's March

Coldplay will probably be the big winner on Sunday night and deservedly so.  While not as involving for me as their sophomore album A Rush of Blood to the Head, Viva La Vida is arguably the best work from this British music sensation.  Working with producer Brian Eno, the band managed to conjure up something reminiscent of U2's The Joshua Tree (also produced by Eno, and easily one of the best albums of the 80's if not all time) and make themselves cool again (no more 40 Year-Old Virgin punchlines).  It's great to hear Chris Martin sing like a man for once, and prove there's more to his vocal performance than his too heavily relied upon falsetto, and they get bonus points for an EP that's pretty close to being a great second album.
FAVORITE TRACKS: 42, Lovers in Japan, Viva la Vida

4. Goldfrapp Seventh Tree

Leaving the electronic techno dance beats behind, British group Goldfrapp turns to a more ambient sound for their fourth album, and the result is absolutely stunning.  Will Gregory finds the perfect blend of synth and string arrangements to compliment the light and breathy vocals of Alison Goldfrapp.  It may not be everyone's cup of tea, but for the listeners who like what they hear, it may end up being their favorite cup of tea.  Their song Happiness was probably my favorite feel good song of the year, and it has the perfect video to match (available for you to watch in the embedded player below).
FAVORITE TRACKS: Little Bird, A&E, Cologne Cerrone Houdini



5. Ben Folds Way to Normal

Whenever Ben Folds releases a new album, it's a pretty safe bet that it's going to be somewhere on my list for favorite albums of the year.  Having had the pleasure last year to catch him in concert for a third time (celebrating six months of marriage, it was Michele's first time seeing him live; click on the last song of my favorite tracks below for a video taken at that same concert) there are no signs of slowing in creative songwriting for this piano man.  While perhaps not as endearing as his first solo effort Rockin' the Suburbs (which I will always associate with 9/11/01 since I bought it that day when it was first released), this latest album is more accessible than his previous album Songs For Silverman.  The only complaint I have is that it feels short, like it needs one more great track to approrpriately close out the album.  It definitely deserved another single to follow You Don't Know Me (which has a great video for fans of Tim & Eric from Cartoon Network's Adult Swim).
FAVORITE TRACKS: Cologne, Errant Dog, Effington

6. Counting Crows Saturday Nights & Sunday Mornings

One of my all-time favorite albums is Recovering the Satellites from Counting Crows, but I was never that fond of anything else they released afterwards until this one came along.  A concept album in two halves, the Saturday Nights portion blasts off with 1492 followed by other up-tempo songs reminiscent of the band in their livelier days when everyone had a copy of August and Everything After, and were singing along to Mr. Jones on the radio.  But then the haunting Washington Square changes the mood and the listener is able to unwind with the more melancholy tones of Adam Duritz during the Sunday Mornings portion.  A perfect album for the fan that has been waiting for Counting Crows to come Round Here with some more Angels of the Silences.
FAVORITE TRACKS: Los Angeles, Insignificant, Anyone But You

7. Cold War Kids Loyalty to Loyalty

This indie band from Fullerton, CA was one of my late entries in last year's blog of albums I had missed from the previous year with their freshman effort Robbers & Cowards.  While this followup album didn't grow on me quite as much as that one did, there are still some great tracks here to show the potential of this energetic band.  Frontman Nathan Willett is second only to Ben Folds when it comes to pounding on the piano.
FAVORITE TRACKS: Mexican Dogs, Something Is Not Right With Me, Welcome to the Occupation

8. Beck Modern Guilt

For his tenth studio album, Beck teamed up with producer Danger Mouse to create ten distinguishable alternative tracks.  While it doesn't stand out from the rest of his work, it's still a solid album that deserves recognition for its own merit, and serves as further proof that Beck Hansen is the hippest white dude on the planet.
FAVORITE TRACKS: Orphans, Modern Guilt, Volcano

8½. Manchild Manchild Zone

This band from Jersey City almost defies explanation.  I can't think of anyone else who would come up with the notion to distort the lyrics of an Elton John tune to make it a ballad sung to a smiley faced condom inflated by a fan mounted on a rear-view mirror.  Check out their MySpace page and consider buying their CD of sometimes funny sometimes groovy but always intriguing musical concoctions.
FAVORITE TRACKS: Normal Home, Fallen Planet Var 1, Prince Harry the Nazi

9. Okkervil River The Stand Ins

This indie band from Austin, TX has hit a nice one-two punch with this album (their fifth) and its predecessor The Stage Names (a 2007 release) following the success of Black Sheep Boy, their 2005 concept album that spawned the followup EP Black Sheep Boy Appendix.  Having gone through some band member changes since they first formed ten years ago, the current lineup produces a polished sound that is both authentic and engaging.
FAVORITE TRACKS: Lost Coastliners, Pop Lie, Calling and Not Callng My Ex

10. Wolf Parade At Mount Zoomer

Yet another indie band, this rock group from Quebec is a collective of musicians from other independent projects including Frog Eyes (Spencer Krug on vocals and keyboards) and Atlas Strategic (Dan Boeckner on vocals and guitar), as well as the more popular group Hot Hot Heat (Dante DeCaro on guitar, bass and percussion).  Produced by Isaac Brock (of Modest Mouse) this sophomore album is consistently listenable and full of interesting progressions that keeps its audience keenly anticipating each movement.
FAVORITE TRACKS: Call It a Ritual, California Dreamer, An Animal in Your Care

There were several other albums I was planning on writing about in a section I would have called "Worth Mentioning" (like the latest from Al Green, Death Cab for Cutie, R.E.M. and Weezer as well as a few other newer artists you might not be familiar with like Jon McLaughlin, Los Campesinos!, She & Him and White Rabbits) but I feel like I've already spent too much time on this blog that perhaps only a handful of people will read in its entirety anyway,.

But I will wrap things up by saying that one album from last year that I haven't had the pleasure of delving into yet, but am sure it deserves a spot on this list is Near or Far from the band Filligar who appeared on my list last year with their second album The City Tree.  Be sure and visit their page to check out their latest, or visit my profile page to hear their song No I Won't currently on my playlist, which is a track off of Near or Far.

Please leave a comment telling me about some of your favorite albums from last year.

You can view the full list of Oscar nominations here.

If you compare it to my list of predictions you'll see that I correctly predicted 72 out 97 nominations which is an improvement from last year's results (66 out of 99).

You can listen to the live thirty minute Oscar, Oscar! broadcast that aired this morning on Blog Talk Radio to hear the announcement of the nominations followed by a brief discussion of inital reactions between myself and host Jason O'Brien. 

He and I had discussed nomination predictions as early as a broadcast in July at which time I had predicted The Reader being nominated for Best Picture, and even reiterated that The Reader would be a surprise Best Picure nominee when we shared early predictions in our pre-Thanksgiving broadcast.  Then something happened in December: I saw the movie and was underwhelmed.  I should have realized that if the Academy can nominate a film that deals with the holocaust for best picture, chances are they will.

Slumdog Millionaire

Even though Benjamin Button got the most nominations I think you can bank on Slumdog Millionaire winning the most awards, but I can still see it losing Best Picture to Milk as it may be considered the "more important" film nominated.  I think it's definitely a race between those two films.

I'm most happy about In Bruges getting an original screenplay nomination for Martin McDonagh, who I think deserves to win but will most likely lose to Dustin Lance Black's screenplay for Milk.  I'm also really happy that I was right about Richard Jenkins getting a best actor nomination for The Visitor, even if Mickey Rourke winning that award is one of the easiest calls to make (along with Wall-E winning animated feature and Heath Ledger winning supporting actor).

BEST OF THE OVERLOOKED
Picture - In Bruges and The Vistor
Director - Christopher Nolan The Dark Knight and Martin McDonagh In Bruges
Actor - Colin Farrell In Bruges and Clint Eastwood Gran Torino
Actress - Emily Mortimer Transsiberian and Rebecca Hall Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Supporting Actor - Liev Schreiber Defiance and Colin Farrell Cassandra's Dream
Supporting Actress - Rosemarie DeWitt Rachel Getting Married and Michelle Williams Synecdoche, New York
Original Screenplay - Tom McCarthy The Visitor and Charlie Kaufman Synecdoche, New York
Adapted Screenplay - David S. Goyer and the Nolan brothers The Dark Knight and Clark Gregg Choke

I'll be posting my analysis of what I expect to win in every category sometime next month before they hand out the awards. In the meantime if you have any questions or feedback, please leave a comment below.

For those who just like looking at lists here are all my predictions for what will be nominated tomorrow morning for the 81st Annual Academy Awards.  If you want to read my in depth analysis complete with photos and links check the four immediately previous entries.

OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky "The Wrestler"
Danny Boyle "Slumdog Millionaire"
David Fincher "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Christopher Nolan "The Dark Knight"
Gus Van Sant "Milk"

ACTOR
Clint Eastwood "Gran Torino"
Richard Jenkins "The Visitor"
Frank Langella "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn "Milk"
Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"

ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway "Rachel Getting Married"
Sally Hawkins "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Angelina Jolie "Changeling"
Meryl Streep "Doubt"
Kate Winslet "Revolutionary Road"

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin "Milk"
Robert Downey Jr. "Tropic Thunder"
Philip Seymour Hoffman "Doubt"
Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"
Dev Patel "Slumdog Millionaire"

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Viola Davis "Doubt"
Marisa Tomei "The Wrestler"
Kate Winslet "The Reader"

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Doubt - John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon - Peter Morgan
The Reader - David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire - Simon Beaufoy

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Happy-Go-Lucky - Mike Leigh
Milk - Dustin Lance Black
Vicky Cristina Barcelona - Woody Allen
The Visitor - Tom McCarthy
WALL-E - Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon

ANIMATED FEATURE
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Encounters At the End of the World
I.O.U.S.A.
Man On Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
3 Monkeys (Turkey)
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Everlasting Moments (Sweden)
Waltz With Bashir (Israel)

ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Alexandre Desplat
Defiance - James Newton Howard
Revolutionary Road - Thomas Newman
Slumdog Millionaire - A.R. Rahman
WALL-E - Thomas Newman

ORIGINAL SONG
Down To Earth "WALL-E" - Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman
Gran Torino "Gran Torino" - Jamie Cullum, Michael Stevens, and Clint and Kyle Eastwood
I Thought I Lost You "Bolt" - Miley Cyrus and Jeffrey Steele
Jaiho "Slumdog Millionaire" - A.R. Rahman
The Wrestler "The Wrestler" - Bruce Springsteen

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Claudio Miranda
The Dark Knight - Wally Pfister
Defiance - Eduardo Serra
Revolutionary Road - Roger Deakins
Slumdog Millionaire - Anthony Dod Mantle

FILM EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
The Dark Knight - Lee Smith
Frost/Nixon - Daniel P. Hanley and Mike Hill
Milk - Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire - Chris Dickens

ART DIRECTION
Changeling - James J. Murakami and Gary Fettis
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Donald Graham Burt and Victor J. Zolto
The Dark Knight - Nathan Crowley and Peter Lando
Revolutionary Road - Kristi Zea and Debra Schutt
Slumdog Millionaire - Mark Digby and Michelle Day

COSTUME DESIGN
Changeling - Deborah Hopper
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Jacqueline West
The Duchess - Michael O'Connor
Revolutionary Road - Albert Wolsky
Slumdog Millionaire - Suttirat Larlarb

MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Synecdoche, New York

SOUND MIXING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

SOUND EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Iron Man
WALL-E

VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

MY PICKS FOR THE BEST OF 2008

TOP 25 FILMS OF 2008
1. WALL-E
2. In Bruges
3. Milk
4. The Visitor
5. The Dark Knight
6. Synecdoche, New York
7. Defiance
8. Changeling
9. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
10. Slumdog Millionaire
11. Transsiberian
12. Frost/Nixon
13. Gran Torino
14. Bolt
15. Young @ Heart
16. Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist
17. The Wrestler
18. Kung Fu Panda
19. Tropic Thunder
20. Frozen River
21. The Lucky Ones
22. Let the Right One In
23. The Bank Job
24. Revolutionary Road
25. Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Runners-Up: Che, Choke, Son of Rambow, Step Brothers, Iron Man

DIRECTOR
1. Christopher Nolan "The Dark Knight"
2. Martin McDonagh "In Bruges"
3. David Fincher "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
4. Gus Van Sant "Milk"
5. Charlie Kaufman "Synecdoche, New York"

ACTOR
1. Richard Jenkins "The Visitor"
2. Sean Penn "Milk"
3. Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"
4. Colin Farrell "In Bruges"
5. Frank Langella "Frost/Nixon"

ACTRESS
1. Kate Winslet "Revolutionary Road"
2. Anne Hathaway "Rachel Getting Married"
3. Angelina Jolie "Changeling"
4. Meryl Streep "Doubt"
5. Emily Mortimer "Transsiberian"

SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"
2. Robert Downey Jr. "Tropic Thunder"
3. Josh Brolin "Milk"
4. Phillip Seymour Hoffman "Doubt"
5. Liev Schreiber "Defiance"

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Penelope Cruz "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
2. Kate Winslet "The Reader"
3. Rosemarie DeWitt "Rachel Gettng Married"
4. Michelle Williams "Synecdoche, New York"
5. Amy Adams "Doubt"

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
2. Slumdog Millionaire - Simon Beaufoy
3. Frost/Nixon - Peter Morgan
4. The Dark Knight - David S. Goyer, and Christopher and Jonathan Nolan
5. Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist - Lorene Scafaria

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. In Bruges - Martin McDonagh
2. Milk - Dustin Lance Black
3. The Visitor - Tom McCarthy
4. WALL-E - Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon
5. Synecdoche, New York - Charlie Kaufman

ANIMATED FEATURE
1. WALL-E
2. Bolt
3. Kung Fu Panda

ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE
1. Revolutionary Road - Thomas Newman
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Alexandre Desplat
3. Defiance - James Newton Howard
4. Synecdoche, New York - Jon Brion
5. In Bruges - Carter Burwell

ORIGINAL SONG
1. Little Person "Synecdoche, New York" - Jon Brion
2. The Wrestler "The Wrestler" - Bruce Springsteen
3. Jaiho "Slumdog Millionaire" - A.R. Rahman
4. Dracula's Lament "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" - Jason Segel
5. Rock Me Sexy Jesus "Hamlet 2" - Pam Brady and Andrew Fleming

CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Claudio Miranda
2. Revolutionary Road - Roger Deakins
3. Defiance - Eduardo Serra
4. The Dark Knight - Wally Pfister
5. Synecdoche, New York - Frederick Elmes

FILM EDITING
1. In Bruges - Jon Gregory
2. Milk - Elliot Graham
3. Slumdog Millionaire - Chris Dickens
4. Frost/Nixon - Daniel P. Hanley and Mike Hill
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall

ART DIRECTION
1. Synecdoche, New York - Mark Friedberg and Lydia Marks
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Donald Graham Burt and Victor J. Zolfo
3. Defiance - Dan Weil and Veronique Melery
4. The Dark Knight - Nathan Crowley and Peter Lando
5. WALL-E - Ralph Eggleston

COSTUME DESIGN
1. The Duchess - Michael O'Connor
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Jacqueline West
3. Revolutionary Road - Albert Wolsky
4. Changeling - Deboarh Hopper
5. Australia - Catherine Martin

MAKEUP
1. Synecdoche, New York
2. Hellboy 2: The Golden Army
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

SOUND MIXING
1. WALL-E
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. The Dark Knight
4. Defiance
5. Iron Man

SOUND EDITING
1. Defiance
2. The Dark Knight
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4. Iron Man
5. WALL-E

VISUAL EFFECTS
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. The Dark Knight
3. Iron Man

Thank you to everyone who has been reading my Oscar nomination prediction blogs which have so far accumulated more than 100 views.  This is the final entry for predictions since the nominations will be announced tomorrow morning at 5:30 am Pacific.  I'll be posting a separate entry later today that will simply list all my predictions and then you can check back tomorrow for the results of how I did.

BEST PICTURE

PREDICTIONS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

The two certain nominees are Golden Globe winner Slumdog Millionaire and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, which I expect to receive more nominations than any other film this year.  Milk is a pretty safe bet even though it was left off the list for the Golden Globes, and I don't see how the Academy can ignore the combination of box office smash and critical success of The Dark Knight, easily the biggest film of 2008.  Smart money will bet on Frost/Nixon to grab the fifth spot, but I'm going out on a limb and predicting WALL-E to become only the second animated film to ever be nominated for Best Picture (the other being Disney's Beauty and the Beast which lost to The Silence of the Lambs 17 years ago).  This is a last minute change for me, as I had anticipated predicting Frost/Nixon when I first started writing these blogs, and I just think there's enough love for WALL-E out there that it will be the surprise nomination this year.  Last year I made a similar last minute change removing Michael Clayton from my predictions to replace it with The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, and I ended up being wrong.  This year, however, with such a small amount of truly great films to choose from I think a surprise nomination is definitely in store and I'm just not sensing the enthusiasm for Frost/Nixon like I am for WALL-E but maybe that's just because I'm blinded by my own enthusiasm for it.

I'd say the second most likely surprise nominee would be for holocaust drama The Reader since it would be a posthumous nomination for both producers Anthony Minghella and Sydney Pollack.  Revolutionary Road certainly has the pedigree of a Best Picture nominee, but I don't think it's a matter of enthusiasm for that film as much as it is enough voters seeing it and liking it enough to put it on their ballot.  Clint Eastwood has had a pretty hot streak getting movies nominated for Best Picture lately, but I don't expect Changeling or Gran Torino to even come close to a nomination.  Vicky Cristina Barcelona won the Globe in the musical or comedy category, but I don't see that translating into an Oscar nomination.  Two that would be on my ballot are In Bruges and The Visitor, but they're perhaps too small to land a nomination for Best Picture.  The smaller independent film that could be another surprise Best Picture nominee, however, is The Wrestler which has only been building in momentum since its eleventh hour release.

WALL-E
HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. WALL-E
2. In Bruges
3. Milk
4. The Visitor
5. The Dark Knight


BEST DIRECTOR

PREDICTIONS
Darren Aronofsky "The Wrestler"
Danny Boyle "Slumdog Millionaire"
David Fincher "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Christopher Nolan "The Dark Knight"
Gus Van Sant "Milk"

Once again the two locks for nominations come from Slumdog Millionaire and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, which will be the first nomination for both Danny Boyle (who won the Globe) and David Fincher respectively.  Even if The Dark Knight doesn't land a Best Picture nomination, it's a safe bet that director Christopher Nolan will also be landing his first directing nomination.  The only contender with a prior nomination on my list of predictions is Milk's Gus Van Sant whose direction for Good Will Hunting lost this award to James Cameron for Titanic eleven years ago.  Once again the smartest bet would be for another Frost/Nixon nomination whose director Ron Howard has not only been nominated before but won this award seven years ago for A Beautiful Mind.  This is where I think The Wrestler will be pulling off a surprise nomination for director Darren Aronofsky who is already admired for his work on previous films such as Requiem for a Dream and The Fountain.

If Aronofsky is not the surprise nominee it may be time to nominate Vicky Cristina Barcelona's Woody Allen once again who was a surprise nominee in this category fourteen years ago for Bullets Over Broadway.  Clint Eastwood has been nominated here three times in the last five years (including a win for Million Dollar Baby) but I don't expect Changeling or Gran Torino to earn him what would be a career fifth nomination for Best Director.  Stephen Daldry has been two for two in this category with Billy Elliot and The Hours, but it's unlikely that The Reader will continue his streak.  Two directors making their feature length debut who I would like to see nominated are Martin McDonagh and Charlie Kaufman for In Bruges and Synecdoche, New York respectively, but an early release date for In Bruges seems to limit its chances in this year's race and not everyone enjoyed Synecdoche, New York as much as I did.  Andrew Stanton could become the first director to be nominated for an animated film if the academy loves WALL-E enough, but a more likely surprise nominee would be Happy-Go-Lucky director Mike Leigh who has been nominated twice before for Secrets & Lies and Vera Drake.

Christopher Nolan
HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. Christopher Nolan "The Dark Knight"
2. Martin McDonagh "In Bruges"
3. David Fincher "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
4. Gus Van Sant "Milk"
5. Charlie Kaufman "Synecdoche, New York"


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

PREDICTIONS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Doubt - John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon - Peter Morgan
The Reader - David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire - Simon Beaufoy

Eric Roth won this award fourteen years ago for Forrest Gump and should have no problem being nominated again for the screenplay he adapted from F. Scott Fitzgerald's The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.  It will be a first nomination for Robin Swicord who has a co-writer credit for the screen story and has also worked on the screenplays for Memoirs of a Geisha and 1994's Little Women.  Simon Beaufoy already won the Golden Globe for his Slumdog Millionaire screenplay based on the novel Q&A by Vikas Swarup, and it would be his second nomination after having his original screenplay for The Full Monty lose to "Matt Affleck" for Good Will Hunting eleven years ago.

Screenplays based on award-winning stage productions are always safe bets for Oscar nominations, especially when the screenplay has been written by the playwrights themselves so Peter Morgan should certainly be nominated for the Frost/Nixon adaptation of his own stage play, having also been nominated for original screenplay two years ago for The Queen.  John Patrick Shanley should also get nominated for the same reason with the adaptation of his own stage play Doubt, and will most likely be the only writer/director nominated in this category.  Shanley won the Oscar for original screenplay twenty-one years ago for his outstanding script for Moonstruck.  Defiance director Edward Zwick worked with Clayton Frohman on the adaptation of the novel by Nechama Tec, but Defiance will only be competing in technical categories if it receives any nominations.  The only other writer/director who could be nominated here is Christopher Nolan who shares credit with his brother Jonathan and David S. Goyer for the screenplay for The Dark Knight.  Nolan should have won in this category seven years ago when he was nominated for his film Memento, but he lost to Julian Fellowes for Gosford Park.  I'm not predicting The Dark Knight to be nominated for Screenplay, but after receiving a nomination for the Writers Guild of America (WGA) award its chances of also being nominated here are pretty decent.

I'm instead predicting the fifth spot for Adapted Screenplay to go to something a little more serious, and I think it will end up being The Reader based on the novel by Bernhard Schlink with the screenplay written by David Hare who was nominated here six years ago for The Hours.  Justin Haythe is too new a name to earn a nomination for his Revolutionary Road screenplay adapted from the novel by Richard Yates, and even though the Academy usually loves to nominated actors who become writer/directors a nomination for Clark Gregg's Choke screenplay based on the novel by Chuck Palahniuk is the darkest of horses in this race.

Benjamin Button
HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
2. Slumdog Millionaire - Simon Beaufoy
3. Frost.Nixon - Peter Morgan
4. The Dark Knight - David S. Goyer, and Christopher and Jonathan Nolan
5. Choke - Clark Gregg


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

PREDICTIONS
Happy-Go-Lucky - Mike Leigh
Milk - Dustin Lance Black
Vicky Cristina Barcelona - Woody Allen
The Visitor - Tom McCarthy
WALL-E - Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon

This is probably the most difficult category to predict this year as there are no less than ten scripts with an excellent chance of being nominated with no clear frontrunners.  The closest thing to a lock is Woody Allen who seems to be on a hot streak lately that started with Match Point two years ago (we'll ignore the disappointing Scoop) and continued this year with both Cassandra's Dream and Vicky Cristina Barcelona, the latter of which has been nominated by the WGA and will earn him what will be his fifteenth Oscar nomination for screenplay (he's won twice for Annie Hall and Hannah and Her Sisters).  I hope his streak continues when they release his latest film this year called Whatever Works starring Evan Rachel Wod and Curb Your Enthusiasm's Larry David.  Second most likely nominee this year would be newcomer Dustin Lance Black, a former Mormon who writes for HBO's Big Love and has received much acclaim as well as a WGA nomination for his screenplay for Milk.

The third WGA contender in this category that I'm predicting is Tom McCarthy whose film The Visitor focuses on identity and immigration in post-9/11 New York.  McCarthy (who also played reporter Scott Templeton on the final season of HBO's The Wire) manages to tell a story with controversial themes in a way that is never in your face or preachy, but always involving and moving.  It was not only one of the year's five best screenplays but one of the years five best films.  I'm keeping my fingers crossed for writer./director Martin McDonagh who not only deserves a nomination here, but would be my pick to win.  Once again his chances may suffer from the early release date and his screenplay for In Bruges may be a bit too profane for many voters.  Charlie Kaufman won this award four years ago for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, but with so much competition this year I don't see his screenplay for Synecdoche, New York earning him his fourth nomination.  Another writer/director that I am predicting to be nominated is Happy-Go-Lucky's Mike Leigh who is no stranger to this category having already been nominated three times for Secrets & Lies, Topsy-Turvy and Vera Drake.  Though I don't understand why the Academy has a trend of nominating him when he doesn't even write an actual script but rather an outline of scenes that he leaves in the hands of his cast to improvise during filming.

Another trend I see continuing this year is nominating a Pixar film for screenplay.  The screenplay for WALL-E which director Andrew Stanton co-wrote with Jim Reardon should join the ranks of Toy Story, Finding Nemo (also by Stanton), The Incredibles and Ratatouille to earn a well-deserved Oscar nomination for original screenplay.  There has also been a trend to nominate the Coen Brothers for screenplay, but even though Burn After Reading managed a spot on the list for the WGA I think the film is too divisive to be nominated here.  The WGA nominated script that could find its way to this list, however, is The Wrestler written by Robert Siegel who is the former editor in chief for The Onion.  Siegel is currently receiving a lot of buzz for his directorial debut Big Fan which is a script he wrote about a New York Giants football fan who struggles to deal with the consequences when he is beaten up by his favorite player.

Another likely contender is Jenny Lumet (daughter of respected filmmaker Sidney Lumet) who received a lot of critical acclaim for writing Rachel Getting Married, but I think perhaps the field is too full this year and voters will instead opt for the writers that have directed their own screenplays.  The same goes for Nick Schenk and Dave Johannson who were recognized by the National Board of Review for Gran Torino, but probably won't rise above the competition for an Oscar nomination.  If one of Clint Eastwood's films does manage a nomination here it would more likely go to J. Michael Straczynski, a frequent instructor at various screenwriting seminars who also wrote a terrific sprawling screenplay for Changeling.

In Bruges
HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. In Bruges - Martin McDonagh
2. Milk - Dustin Lance Black
3. The Visitor - Tom McCarthy
4. WALL-E - Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon
5. Synecdoche, New York - Charlie Kaufman

I knew this one would be the longest which is why I saved it for last.  Don't forget to check back tomorrow to see how successful I am with these predictions.

This is the penultimate entry of my Oscar nomination prediction blogs, and I took the trouble to go out and find links to the potential music nominees so I hope you can enjoy listening as well as reading this time around.  First, I'll get the various feature categories out of the way.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

PREDICTIONS
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

WALL-E

There's no question that WALL-E wins this award so the other two nominees will hardly matter, but I'm betting on Disney's Bolt with its groundbreaking 3D animation even though it was somewhat of a box office disappointment.  Kung Fu Panda was hardly a box office disappointment and more often than not something from Dreamworks competes for this award each year.  Waltz Wish Bashir could follow the lead of previous artsy nominated features like Waking Life, but unlike last year's nominated Persepolis it still remains a contender for the foreign award.  The few films that could pull a Surf's Up style surprise nod include Horton Hears a Who and Madagascar Escape 2 Africa.

HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. WALL-E
2. Bolt
3. Kung Fu Panda


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

PREDICTIONS
Encounters At the End of the World
I.O.U.S.A.
Man On Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water

Man On Wire

The only eligible films for this award that I've managed to see are Man On Wire which definitely deserves the nomination, and Standard Operating Procedure which definitely does not, but filmmaker Errol Morris won thjis award five years ago when he deserved it for The Fog of War and has developed a good relationship with the Academy since then with producing segments for the Awards ceremony a few years ago.  Most of the documentaries I'd like to see nominated (American Teen, Dear Zachary, Religulous, and most of all Young At Heart) were not deemed eligible by the selection committee so I'm kind of guessing here.  Trouble the Water focuses on Hurricane Katrina so that should have no problem landing a nomination, and since our economy is such a big issue right now I'm sure that only helps the chances for I.O.U.S.A.  Nominating Encounters At the End of the World may be seen as a make-good for director Werner Herzog who's brilliant documentary Grizzly Man was not one of the selected films a few years back when it clearly deserved to win the award.  Other likely nominees for this award include At the Death House Door, Fuel, Pray the Devil Back to Hell and Glass: A Portrait of Philip in Twelve Parts.


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

PREDICTIONS
3 Monkeys (Turkey)
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Everlasting Moments (Sweden)
Waltz With Bashir (Israel)

3 Monkeys

I haven't seen any of the films eligible for this award and so for my predictions I simply picked three that were also Golden Globe nominees (The Baader Meinhof Complex, Everlasting Moments and Waltz With Bashir) plus one that has received much critical acclaim (The Class), and based my last choice on the most interesting photo still I could find from the eligible films (3 Monkeys).  The other possible nominees are Departures from Japan, The Necessities of Life from Canada, Revanche from Austria, and Tear This Heart Out from Mexico.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

PREDICTIONS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Alexandre Desplat
Defiance - James Newton Howard
Revolutionary Road - Thomas Newman
Slumdog Millionaire - A.R. Rahman
WALL-E - Thomas Newman

There are three possible double nominees for this category this year, and I'm going with Thomas Newman (for both Revolutionary Road and WALL-E) who has been nominated for this award eight times already but has never won (his cousin Randy Newman was nominated twice as many times before he finally won for the original song If I Didn't Have You from Monsters, Inc.).  The other possible double nominees would be the two composers sharing credit for The Dark Knight: James Newton Howard and Hans Zimmer.  I'm not predicting a nomination here for The Dark Knight, but I do expect James Newton Howard to receive a nomination for his work on Defiance (he's also eligible for the scores he composed for Mad Money and The Happening).  He's been nominated seven times without a win, but I don't think this will be his year either.  Hans Zimmer (who won this award twelve years ago for The Lion King) is also eligible this year for Kung Fu Panda and Madagascar Escape 2 Africa, but if he does pull out a nomination it will most likely be for Frost/Nixon.

The two who I expect are the frontrunners to win are both the newcomers to this category.  Alexandre Desplat has only been nominated once before two years ago for The Queen, but is a lock to be nominated again this year for his sweeping score for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.  Unless the Academy decides to finally put an end to Newman's losing streak, I think the only composer who could take this prize from Desplat is Indian composer A.R. Rahman who already took home the Golden Globe for his work on Slumdog Millionaire.

Certain to be overlooked are the still never nominated Carter Burwell (even though he has won several awards from critics and festivals for his work on Fargo, Gods and Monsters, Before Night Falls, O Brother Where Art Thou and others) for In Bruges, and Synecdoche, New York's Jon Brion who also has yet to receive an Oscar nomination despite some of the greatest work of this century on films such as Magnolia, Punch-Drunk Love, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and I Heart Huckabee's. A more likely nominee would be Danny Elfman for Milk (his other work this year was for Hellboy 2: The Golden Army, Wanted and Standard Operating Procedure) in what would be his fourth Oscar nomination (but also has yet to win).
 
Revolutionary Road

HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. Revolutionary Road - Thomas Newman
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Alexandre Desplat
3. Defiance - James Newton Howard
4. Synecdoche, New York - Jon Brion
5. In Bruges - Carter Burwell


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

PREDICTIONS
Down To Earth "WALL-E" - Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman
Gran Torino "Gran Torino" - Jamie Cullum, Michael Stevens, and Clint and Kyle Eastwood
I Thought I Lost You "Bolt" - Miley Cyrus and Jeffrey Steele
Jaiho "Slumdog Millionaire" - A.R. Rahman
The Wrestler "The Wrestler" - Bruce Springsteen

You can bank on The Wrestler earning The Boss his third Oscar nomination, and maybe even his second win having won this award fifteen years ago for Philadelphia's Streets of Philadelphia.  His toughest competition will be the Bollywood number Jaiho if Slumdog Millionaire manages to pull off some kind of a sweep on Oscar night, or perhaps Peter Gabriel for the song Down To Earth which he co-wrote with Thomas Newman to play over the end credits of WALL-E.  At least one song from Bolt should make the list, and I'm betting on the Miley Cyrus and John Travolta duet of I Thought I Lost You, though I expect her dad will fill in to perform on the night of the ceremony for obvious reasons.  The performer I'm hoping also takes the sidelines on Oscar night is Clint Eastwood if Gran Torino gets nominated, since Jamie Cullum is the obvious choice to take it solo.

Once again, I'm not expecting my first choice to make the list even though Jon Brion's Little Person from Synechdoche, New York is so achingly beautiful as performed by jazz vocalist Deanne Storey (play the video below to hear it).  I'd get a kick out of seeing Jason Segel sing his Dracula's Lament from Forgetting Sarah Marshall but that nomination is even less likely than the writing team that composed Rock Me Sexy Jesus for Hamlet 2.  Bolt could pull off a double nominee here if they also nominate Jenny Lewis' Barking At the Moon, but there are probably better chances for the Globe nominated Once In a Lifetime from Cadillac Records if the Academy wants to have Beyonce sing at their ceremony once again.

Little Person

HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. Little Person "Synecdoche, New York" - Jon Brion
2. The Wrestler "The Wrestler" - Bruce Springsteen
3. Jaiho "Slumdog Millionaire" - A.R. Rahman
4. Dracula's Lament "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" - Jason Segel
5. Rock Me Sexy Jesus "Hamlet 2" - Pam Brady and Andrew Fleming

Only one more entry left and that will be posted sometime tomorrow before the nominations are announced the following morning.  So check back tomorrow to read my picks and predictions for Best Picture, Best Director and both Screenplay categories.

Thank you to everyone who checked out yesterday's entry covering the acting categories.  In this entry I'll be covering my picks and predictions for the technical categories so hopefully you'll still keep reading.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

PREDICTIONS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Claudio Miranda
The Dark Knight - Wally Pfister
Defiance - Eduardo Serra
Revolutionary Road - Roger Deakins
Slumdog Millionaire - Anthony Dod Mantle

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Claudio Miranda
2. Revolutionary Road - Roger Deakins
3. Defiance - Eduardo Serra
4. The Dark Knight - Wally Pfister
5. Synecdoche, New York - Frederick Elmes

Wally Pfister was nominated here before for both The Dark Knight and The Prestige so he should be a lock for a nomination for his work on The Dark Knight.  Eduardo Serra was also nominated twice before (The Wings of the Dove and Girl With a Pearl Earring) and is the only person I'm predicting who isn't also nominated for a separate award being voted on by the ASC (American Society of Cinematographers).  I think it was an earlier vote deadline that prevented many of its voters from seeing the last minute release of Defiance, which should still make the cut for the Oscar.  Roger Deakins has been nominated seven times already (twice last year for both No Country for Old Men and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford), and he could pull off a double nomination again this year if the Academy also recognizes his work for Doubt, or more likely matches the ASC who has him nominated for both Revolutionary Road and The Reader, the latter of which is a collaboration with Chris Menges.  Deakins has yet to actually win the award, and I don't expect this to be the year that ends the losing streak.

I think the more likely winner will be one of the following first-time nominees: Claudio Miranda, whose only other major motion picture on his resume prior to The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is the romantic comedy Failure To Launch starring Matthew McConaughey and Sarah Jessica Parker (though he is on board for the Tron 2.0 film scheduled for release in 2011); and British cinematographer Anthoy Dod Mantle who worked with Slumdog Millionaire director Danny Boyle previously on both 28 Days Later and Millions, but the bulk of his experience has been in foreign European cinema including critically acclaimed The Celebration and a few projects with renowned director Lars Von Trier (Dogville and Manderlay, as well as the upcoming Antichrist starring Willem Dafoe and Charlotte Gainsbourg). Frederick Elmes is long overdue for his first nomination (a frequent collaborator with David Lynch, Jim Jarmusch and Ang Lee) but his outstanding work on Synecdoche, New York probably won't get him the recognition he deserves.

BEST FILM EDITING

PREDICTIONS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
The Dark Knight - Lee Smith
Frost/Nixon - Daniel P. Hanley and Mike Hill
Milk - Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire - Chris Dickens

In Bruges
HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. In Bruges - Jon Gregory
2. Milk - Elliot Graham
3. Slumdog Millionaire - Chris Dickens
4. Frost/Nixon - Daniel P. Hanley and Mike Hill
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall

The last three years only two Best Picture nominees have also been nominated for film editing, but the last three years had a larger list of great films to pull from, so this year I'm predicting an exact match for the films competing for Best Film Editing and Best Picture.  This list also matches the films competing in the drama category for the ACE Eddie (voted on by members of the American Cinema Editors).  The one surprise nominee could be Andrew Weisblum for The Wrestler, or one of the contenders in the comedy category for the ACE Eddie (most likely Alisa Lepselter for Vicky Cristina Barcelona or Stephen Schaffer for WALL-E).

BEST ART DIRECTION

PREDICTIONS
Changeling - James J. Murakami and Gary Fettis
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Donald Graham Burt and Victor J. Zolto
The Dark Knight - Nathan Crowley and Peter Lando
Revolutionary Road - Kristi Zea and Debra Schutt
Slumdog Millionaire - Mark Digby and Michelle Day

Synecdoche, New York
HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. Synecdoche, New York - Mark Friedberg and Lydia Marks
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Donald Graham Burt and Victor J. Zolfo
3. Defiance - Dan Weil and Veronique Melery
4. The Dark Knight - Nathan Crowley and Peter Lando
5. WALL-E - Ralph Eggleston

Once again all the films I'm predicting to be nominated in this category were also nominated by their respective guild (Art Director's Guild), so I don't feel the need to defend any of my predictions. Other nominees for the ADG Award that could find their way to Oscar consideration include Doubt, Iron Man and Gran Torino.  I am not alone, however, in admiring the production design of Synecdoche, New York which was awarded this category by the Los Angeles Film Critics.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

PREDICTIONS
Changeling - Deborah Hopper
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Jacqueline West
The Duchess - Michael O'Connor
Revolutionary Road - Albert Wolsky
Slumdog Millionaire - Suttirat Larlarb

The Duchess
HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. The Duchess - Michael O'Connor
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Jacqueline West
3. Revolutionary Road - Albert Wolsky
4. Changeling - Deboarh Hopper
5. Australia - Catherine Martin

At the risk of being boring (which really this entire blog series maybe) every prediction I make here is also contending for an award given by the CDG (Costume Designers Guild).  It really doesn't matter who or what gets nominated because it's highly unlikely anything other than The Duchess will win this award, but other ADG contenders that could be nominated here include Iron Man, Sex and the City, Milk and The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian.

BEST MAKEUP

PREDICTIONS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Synecdoche, New York

Synecdoche, New York
HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. Synecdoche, New York
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. The Dark Knight

There are only four other movies that might get nominated for this award and they are (in order of likelihood of making the list): The Reader, Tropic Thunder, Hellboy 2: The Golden Army and The Wrestler.

BEST SOUND MIXING

PREDICTIONS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

WALL-E
HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. WALL-E
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. The Dark Knight
4. Defiance
5. Iron Man

The Cinema Audio Society nominated three of the movies I'm predicting (The Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire and WALL-E) but once again I'm expecting the last minute release date of Defiance to make it an Oscar contender, and I fully expect The Curious Case of Benjamin Button to receive the most nominations this year.  The other films that have the best shot of making the list are Iron Man and Quantum of Solace, which were the other two films nominated by the Cinema Audio Society.  Other films with a smaller chance of a nomination here include Australia, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and Valkyrie.

BEST SOUND EDITING

PREDICTIONS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Iron Man
WALL-E

Defiance
HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. Defiance
2. The Dark Knight
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4. Iron Man
5. WALL-E

It used to be only three movies would be nominated for this award,resulting from members voting from a list of films selected by the Academy's Sound Branch, but two years ago a rule change took place putting the nominating back in the hands of Academy voters' preferential ballots and now enough films receive votes to merit five nominees.  This category is usually dominated by effect-heavy films so other possible nominees include Quantum of Solace, The Incredible Hulk, Hancock and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

PREDICTIONS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. The Dark Knight
3. Iron Man

Like Best Makeup, there are only four other films that might get nominated for this award and they are (in order of likelihood): Hellboy 2: The Golden Army, Australia, Journey to the Center of the Earth and The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Warrior.

That's it for this entry.  Don't forget to tune into tonight's Oscar,Oscar! broadcast on Blog Talk Radio when we'll be discussing all our predictions.  You can click here to listen to it live tonight starting at 11 pm eastern or use the same link to listen to the archived broadcast.  Check back tomorrow for my predictions in the feature (animated, documentary, foreign) and music categories.

The nominations for the 81st Annual Academy Awards are going to be announced on Thursday morning, and this year is going to be easier to predict than other years simply because there weren't that many great movies that hit theaters in 2008.  So I'm expecting to do better than last year's predictions (64 out of 99).  This entry will cover just the acting categories.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

           

PREDICTIONS
Josh Brolin "Milk"
Robert Downey Jr. "Tropic Thunder"
Philip Seymour Hoffman "Doubt"
Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"
Dev Patel "Slumdog Millionaire"

Usually this is the most difficult category to predict, but this year it's one of the easiest because the field of competition is so narrow. Your surefire bets include the hilarious turn of Robert Downey Jr. as Kirk Lazarus in Tropic Thunder, Philip Seymour Hoffman's compelling performance as Father Brendan Flynn in Doubt, and Heath Ledger as the Joker in The Dark Knight in what will be the first posthumous acting nomination since Il Postino's Massimo Troisi lost Best Actor to Nicolas Cage for Leaving Las Vegas 13 years ago.  I not only expect Ledger to get nominated, but to become only the second actor to win posthumously (Peter Finch won Best Actor 32 years ago for Network only 10 weeks after suffering a fatal heart attack).

I would also be extremely surprised if the list did not include Josh Brolin for his brilliant turn as Dan White in Milk.  He's had sixexcellent performances over the last two years (Milk, W, AmericanGangster, No Country For Old Men, In the Valley of Elah, and Planet Terror) and since the much tougher Best Actor race will most likely exclude his excellent turn as our current president (only two days left) he'll most certainly find a nomination here for his other portrayal of a despicable political figure.  It's because of the tight race for lead actor that we're seeing a few performances being nominated in the supporting category in what I think are clearly lead roles.  Besides Philip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt, there's also Dev Patel as Jamal Malik in Slumdog Millionaire who I expect will nab the fifth spot for Best Supporting Actor.

If Patel's name is not on the list, the other possibilities include Brolin's fellow Milk cast member James Franco as Harvey Milk's first love interest Scott Smith, Golden Globe nominee Ralph Fiennes as the emotionally cold Duke of Devonshire in The Duchess, and Michael Shannon in the love-it-or-hate-it role of the year as mental patient John Givings in Revolutionary Road.  Tom Cruise managed a Globe nomination for his surprising turn as producer Les Grossman in Tropic Thunder, but I don't expect it to lead to what would be his fourth Oscar nomination.  Perhaps the most likely surprise nominee is Eddie Marsan as Scott, the driving instructor with serious anger issues in Happy-Go-Lucky. If the ballot were in my hand, the fifth spot would be between Colin Farrell as the conscience-battling Terry in Cassandra's Dream and Liev Schreiber as World War II Jewish revolutionary Zus Bielski in Defiance.

HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"
2. Robert Downey Jr. "Tropic Thunder"
3. Josh Brolin "Milk"
4. Phillip Seymour Hoffman "Doubt"
5. Liev Schreiber "Defiance"


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

          

PREDICTIONS
Amy Adams "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Viola Davis "Doubt"
Marisa Tomei "The Wrestler"
Kate Winslet "The Reader"

Unlike supporting actor, the supporting actress field is a much tougher category to predict.  The safest bet for a nomination is Penelope Cruz as the wild and sensual Maria Elena in Vicky Cristina Barcelona joining the ranks of the many many actresses who have earned an Oscar nomination for a role in a Woody Allen film.  If Kate Winslet isn't nominated here for The Reader, it will only be because too many Academy voters deemed the part of Hanna Schmitz to be the lead role that it truly is.  At least one of the supporting actresses in Doubt will certainly be nominated and the consensus seems to be the more likely is Viola Davis as Mrs. Miller, the mother of the only black student at a Catholic school during the 1960's, even though she is only in the movie for maybe fifteen minutes.  However, it is arguably the finest fifteen minutes of the film, and Judi Dench was not only nominated for less screen time, but won this award ten years ago for Shakespeare in Love. Even though the character Davis plays gets to participate in one of the best scenes of the film, I would argue that Amy Adams is more deserving for her performance as Sister James which requires a larger range of emotion besides being a much larger role.  Adams also benefits from having been nominated in this category three years ago for Junebug.  In the end, I expect both of them to be nominated just as they were for both the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild.

Once again that leaves that fifth spot open to several possibilities. Another film with two possible nominees is Rachel Getting Married but so far Rosemarie DeWitt and Debra Winger have only managed nominations for the Independent Spirt Award.  As much as I admired Michele Williams in the criminally underrated Synecdoche, New York, any consideration she receives will be for her other performance in Wendy and Lucy in the lead actress category.  A lot of people were expecting Beyonce Knowles to be a contender with her performance as Etta James in Cadillac Records, but it seems her only chances of a nomination this year are for co-writing the film's original song Once In a Lifetime.  The battle for the fifth spot seems to be between two actresses.  Taraji P Henson was nominated by the Screen Actors Guild for her performance as Queenie in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, a film which is sure to receive more nominations than any other film this year, but I expect the Oscars to mirror the Globes this year and go with Marisa Tomei as Pam/Cassidy in The Wrestler, in what would be her third Osca rnomination (her first nomination 16 years ago was also her infamous"undeserved" win for My Cousin Vinny).

HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. Penelope Cruz "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
2. Kate Winslet "The Reader"
3. Rosemarie DeWitt "Rachel Gettng Married"
4. Michelle Williams "Synecdoche, New York"
5. Amy Adams "Doubt"


BEST ACTRESS

           

PREDICTIONS
Anne Hathaway "Rachel Getting Married"
Sally Hawkins "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Angelina Jolie "Changeling"
Meryl Streep "Doubt"
Kate Winslet "Revolutionary Road"

This is another category like supporting actor with a few obvious frontrunners.  You can bank on Anne Hathaway receiving her first nomination as the recovering addict Kym in Rachel Getting Married, and the almost always nominated Meryl Streep for yet another outstanding performance as Sister Aloysius Beauvier in Doubt.  If Kate Winslet isn't nominated for her passionate performance as April Wheeler in Revolutionary Road it will only be because the voters were split on which film to nominate her for (Academy rules dictate that an actor or actress can only be nominated once in any category per year) and that would be a terrible upset.  Angelina Jolie was overlooked in this category last year for A Mighty Heart, but not many people expec thistory to repeat itself this year with her performance as Christine Collins in Changeling.

As always that leaves the fifth spot open to the rest of the competition, and like the supporting actress category there seems to be more contenders here than previous years.  Melissa Leo has a great shot at landing a nomination after the Screen Actors Guild included her performance as Ray Eddy in Frozen River, but there's a chance not enough voters took the time to watch this stunning independent film. Another actress in an independent film I'd like to see included would be Emily Mortimer as Jessie in Transsiberian, but unlike Hathaway and Leo she didn't even manage a Spirit nomination.  Michelle Williaims did, however, for her role as Wendy in Wendy and Lucy, but the film is probably too small to find its way onto many Oscar ballots.  Keira Knightley has yet to receive an Oscar nomination and even though she did a fine job in the tile role of The Duchess, I don't expect it to put her name on the list.  The landslide of nominations for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button may benefit Cate Blanchett, but her performance in the role of Daisy hasn't led to any pre-Oscar nominations and after earning double nominations last year they may just feel it's someone else's turn in the spotlight.  My bet is that Golden Globe winner Sally Hawkins will find her name on this list for the mostly improvised role of Poppy in Happy-Go-Lucky, a performance that certainly lived up to the title.

HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. Kate Winslet "Revolutionary Road"
2. Anne Hathaway "Rachel Getting Married"
3. Angelina Jolie "Changeling"
4. Meryl Streep "Doubt"
5. Emily Mortimer "Transsiberian"


BEST ACTOR

           

PREDICTIONS
Clint Eastwood "Gran Torino"
Richard Jenkins "The Visitor"
Frank Langella "Frost.Nixon"
Sean Penn "Milk"
Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"

If 2008 was a weak year for great movies, it certainly wasn't a weak year for outstanding performances by a lead actor.  There are more than twenty worthy contenders to choose from that it seems hardly fair to nominate only five. The two standouts are definitely Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke in the title roles of Milk and The Wrestler respectively,and the award will certainly go to one of them (smart money is on Rourke).  Frank Langella has already been winning awards for his portrayal of the former president in the stage version of Frost/Nixon and it will be no surprise to see him earning his first Oscar nomination for the film adaptation. 

While the other categories have several performers vying for that fifth spot, I would argue that the toughest race is to see who lands the last two spots for lead actor.  The initial predictions I made in a pre-Thanksgiving broadcast on Blog Talk Raido's Oscar, Oscar! program rounded out the category with Clint Eastwood as Walt Kowalski in Gran Torino and Brad Pitt in the tile role of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, which were both seemingly risky predictions at the time but are now seen as the safest bets.  I'm sticking with Eastwood because even though he didn't make the list for the Screen Actors Guild you can never count him out when it comes Oscar time and the Academy won't pass up the opportunity to nominate him one last time in what Eastwood has said will be his final acting performance (a condition that I think primes him as the only potential upset in the Rourke vs. Penn face off for the statue).  Pitt was, however, nominated for the Screen Actors Guild as well as the Golden Globes and while I fully expect his name to be on a lot of ballots, I don't expect it to be topping enough of those lists to get him the fifth spot.  A name that will be topping a lot of lists though, including my own, is fellow Screen Actors Guild nominee Richard Jenkins as Walter Vale in The Visitor, so I'm taking a risk and predicting him as the fifth nominee and hoping it's not just wishful thinking.

The only other name I could really see on the final list is Leonardo DiCaprio as Frank Wheeler in Revolutionary Road, even though I wish I could include Golden Globe winner Colin Farrell as Ray in In Bruges, but here is a list of twenty-one other fine lead actors from 2008: Christian Bale in The Dark Knight, Javier Bardem in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Josh Brolin in W, Daniel Craig in Defiance, Benecio Del Toro in Che, Robert Downey Jr. in Iron Man, Brendan Gleeson in In Bruges, Woody Harrelson in Transsiberian, Ed Harris in Appaloosa, Dustin Hoffman in Last Chance Harvey, Philip Seymour Hoffman in Synecdoche, New York, Samuel L. Jackson in Lakeview Terrace, Ben Kingsley in Elegy, Greg Kinnear in Flash of Genius, Viggo Mortensen in Appaloosa and Good, Eddie Murphy in Meet Dave, Ryan Reynolds in Definitely Maybe, Tim Robbins in The Lucky Ones and Noise, Sam Rockwell in Choke and Snow Angels, Michael Sheen in Frost/Nixon, and Will Smith in Seven Pounds.

HOW I WOULD VOTE
1. Richard Jenkins "The Visitor"
2. Sean Penn "Milk"
3. Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"
4. Colin Farrell "In Bruges"
5. Frank Langella "Frost/Nixon"

Be sure to tune into Monday night's broadcast of Oscar, Oscar! on Blog Talk Radio when we'll be discussing predictions for every category (click here for the link).  You can also listen to last week's special broadcast when we discussed our own picks for the best in fil of 2008 (click here for the link).  Check back for my next entry which will cover all the technical categories.

All comments are greatly appreciated, especially since I spent way too much time on this entry finding and cropping photos.  Also, if you're not already subscribed, please click the subscribe link below my photo in the top left corner.  As long as you're a subscriber, we will always be friends.

Hello again.  Long time, no blog.  It's that time of year so you're going to start seeing some entries again. 

I'm going to wait until I post my Oscar nomination predictions next month to get into more introspective detail, so here is just a complete list of everything I'm guessing will be nominated in the film categories for this year's Golden Globes (being announced Thursday).  I'm predicting six contenders in this year's Lead Actor in a Drama category since there are always one or two categories that have more than five nominees.  I'm also including a wild card in each category of one unlikely contender that might just find its way to the list.

You can listen to last night's Oscar Oscar broadcast on BlogTalkRadio to hear me discuss these predictions with host Jason O'Brien. 

DRAMA
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Revolutionary Road
wild card: Defiance

COMEDY/MUSICAL
Burn After Reading
Mamma Mia!
Slumdog Millionaire
Tropic Thunder
Wall-E
wild card: W

DRAMA LEAD ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio 'Revolutionary Road'
Clint Eastwood 'Gran Torino'
Frank Langella 'Frost/Nixon'
Sean Penn 'Milk'
Brad Pitt 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button'
Mickey Rourke 'The Wrestler'
wild card: Will Smith 'Seven Pounds'

COMEDY/MUSICAL LEAD ACTOR
Josh Brolin 'W'
Pierce Brosnan 'Mamma Mia!'
George Clooney 'Burn After Reading'
Robert Downey, Jr. 'Tropic Thunder'
Dev Patel 'Slumdog Millionaire'
wild card: Sam Rockwell 'Choke'

DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway 'Rachel Getting Married'
Angelina Jolie 'Changeling'
Nicole Kidman 'Australia'
Meryl Streep 'Doubt'
Kate Winslet 'Revolutionary Road'
wild card: Keira Knightley 'The Duchess'

COMEDY/MUSICAL LEAD ACTRESS
Jennifer Aniston 'Marley & Me'
Sally Hawkins 'Happy-Go-Lucky'
Frances McDormand 'Burn After Reading'
Sarah Jessica Parker 'Sex and the City'
Meryl Streep 'Mamma Mia!'
wild card: Beyonce Knowles 'Cadillac Records'

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin 'Milk'
Phillip Seymour Hoffman 'Doubt'
Heath Ledger 'The Dark Knight'
Liev Schreiber 'Defiance'
Michael Shannon 'Revolutionary Road'
wild card: James Franco 'Milk'

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams 'Doubt'
Kathy Bates 'Revolutionary Road'
Penelope Cruz 'Vicky Cristina Barcelona'
Rosemarie Dewitt 'Rachel Getting Married'
Taraji P. Henson 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button'
wild card: Freida Pinto 'Slumdog Millionaire'

DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle 'Slumdog Millionaire'
Clint Eastwood 'Gran Torino'
David Fincher 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button'
Ron Howard 'Frost/Nixon'
Sam Mendes 'Revolutionary Road'
wild card: Baz Luhrmann 'Australia'

SCREENPLAY
Simon Beaufoy 'Slumdog Millionaire'
Justin Haythe 'Revolutionary Road'
Peter Morgan 'Frost/Nixon'
Eric Roth 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button'
John Patrick Shanley 'Doubt'
wild card: Nick Schenk 'Gran Torino'

ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button'
Kyle Eastwood 'Gran Turino'
David Hirschfelder 'Australia'
Thomas Newman 'Revolutionary Road'
Hans Zimmer 'Frost/Nixon'
wild card: Thomas Newman 'Wall-E'

ORIGINAL SONG
Down To Earth 'Wall-E' (Peter Gabriel)
Gran Torino 'Gran Torino' (Jamie Cullum, Clint Eastwood, Kyle Eastwood)
I Thought I Lost You 'Bolt' (Miley Cyrus and Jeff Steele)
Jaiho 'Slumdog Millionaire' (Alisha Chinoy)
The Wrestler 'The Wrestler' (Bruce Springsteen)
wild card: Rock Me Sexy Jesus 'Hamlet 2' (Pam Brady and Andrew Fleming)

 
Thanks for checking out the list.  Leave a comment below so I know people are still interested in this kind of thing so I'm not wasting any more time when the Oscars come around.  Also check back for year-end lists with my picks for the best in film and my favorite in new music from this year.  I'll try and make those more visually appealing than this one.

Happy Holidays.

********************
I correctly predicted 39 nominations out of 55 (giving myself credit for ones that I predicted in the wrong category) which isn't too bad for a first attempt especially in a year where I haven't seen the majority of the big contenders since they've yet to be nationally released.  I thought it was funny that I got every actor in drama and not one single actor in comedy, but I'm very happy to see In Bruges get the nominations it so richly deserves.

Click here for the complete list of nominees.