This is coming to the U.S.

Get ready.

http://www.boncherry.com/blog/2008/10/26/global-crisis-this-is-the-real-crisis/

A funny thing happened on the way to .....

In 1996 or 1997 on a Saturday I decided to go to Salem, Oregon.  After putzing around there for a couple of hours, I suddenly decided that I wanted to go to Tillamook, 80 miles west and by the Pacific Ocean.

Halfway there, I realized I really did not want to go to the Coast.  So, I got off the highway near Willamina, and took Gold Creek Road south.  Gold Creek Road is a dead end road, so I knew sooner or later I would need to turn around and come back.

About halfway to the end of the road I came upon two logging roads side-by-side heading west up into the mountains. I took the second one.  Now a logging road is a road build so that trucks could haul logs out of the forest.  Usually they are dead end roads that typically go to the mountain tops before they end.  And they are always steep, crooked, one-lane, and gravel.  So I go putting up this road.  After about 6 miles I finally find the end of it near a mountain top.  After stopping for about a half an hour and walking around, I head down the mountain.

Now, get this.  I am careening down this crooked, steep, one-lane, gravel road at 60 miles per hour in my van.  Halfway down I round a corner and lo and behold, there are people everywhere gazing at the valleys and mountains around them.  I do not remember how many people were there, but I know two things.  First they were NOT there 45 minutes earlier when I came up the road. Second, out of the 30 or so people there, I KNEW EVERY LAST ONE OF THEM!!!  Some were from Eugene, some from Portland, some from McMinnville, some from Salem, some from Wilsonville, all in Oregon, and some from Vancouver, Washington with others from other places.  They were all in Willamina, Oregon visiting a now-deceased widow, who brought them up this road to view the countryside.

As it turned out, I wound up following them to the widow's house and stayed there for the rest of the day.

Think about this for a while. If the timing had been less than ten minutes different, I would have never known any of them were in the area!!!  Or if I had taken the other logging road or they had, no contact either.  Just what are the odds of ANYONE meeting ANYBODY that they know out in the middle of NOWHERE?  And think of the odds of meeting 30 people you know that live hundreds of miles away and live sometimes over a hundred miles apart.  This is statistically IMPOSSIBLE, yet it HAPPENED!

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Back in 1985 I bought a Gran Torino Station Wagon.  A few days later I loaded it with parts and started selling my way to Tucson, Arizona.  Once there, I took 10 days off and did basically nothing except some sight-seeing.  Eventually I decided it was time to come home, so I spent a day selling what I could of the rest of the parts.  The next day I went to a local scrapyard and sold what was left for scrap.  I had $150 and 1800 miles to travel to get home. No way I could buy gas and stay in a motel for the 3 days it would take to get home.

So, I headed up into the mountains toward Globe, Arizona.  When I got there I started looking for junk radiators to buy.  Gradually I worked my way into Phoenix, Arizona, where I found a motel.  I was too broke to even buy any food.  The next morning I sold the radiators that I had bought for about $300.  I am now 100 miles closer to home and have twice as much money as when I left Tucson.

After selling the radiators, I left Phoenix heading towards Kingman, Arizona.  There I found a very nice motel with HUGE rooms for $18 per night.  Since this was Friday night, and the rooms were so cheap, I stayed there three days.  On Monday I found a place in Bullhead City, 50 miles from Kingman to buy a load of radiators.  I spent most of the rest of my money there.  I had just enough money for gas to get to Los Angeles, California.  I went back to Kingman for the night, then the next day headed for Los Angeles.

As I was crossing the desert in Southern California, I kept hearing snapping and popping noises.  When I got into Riverside, I found a dump to call home for the night.  The next day I get to Duarte and the noise was horrible.  So I called a friend in LA.  He was not home, but his mother knew someone that could help me.  So he drove 50 miles out to Duarte and found the problem - a frozen U-joint in my drive line.  He took it out, I walked across the street to a parts store, and bought a brand new one for $3, on sale from $10.  I took it back, he put it in, and then refused to charge me for his time, gas, or anything else.

Day was shot.  Off to Azusa to get a room for the night.

That evening I decided to look up an old friend that moved to LA ten years earlier.  Opened the phone book.  Could not believe how many David Rosenthals lived in the LA area!!!  Called every one of them.  No luck.  To bed.

Next day into LA to sell my radiators.  Sold them for about $300.  Now I was rich again.  Now time to find Dave a different way.  Went to the last place I knew he worked, like 5 years previous.  Not there.  Finally found someone there who remembered him.  He told me where David next worked.  Went there.  No luck.

Decided to call a common friend in Portland, Oregon but he could not help me.  When I got off the phone, a guy by the name of Benjamin who was waiting for the phone, asked me if this David owed me money.  I said 'No' and that I was an old friend in town trying to find him.  Benjamin told me that David was now working about 3 miles from there.  I went there, and sure enough that was the right David.

Now what are the odds of me as a stranger in a city of 8 million people meeting someone on a street corner that knows the same person I know?  Astronomical to say the least, [b]yet it happened!!![/b]

After visiting several people around the LA area, I headed back to Azusa for the night. Next day on way to Grapevine Pass, I broke down again.  This time I was able to fix it, but I wound up sleeping in the car that night. Next day I am heading north looking for more radiators.  Eventually I wind up in Sonora, California where I finally spend most of the rest of my money.  Next day head into Oakland, California, sell the radiators for $300, and I am rich again.

I head north again, looking for more radiators.  Don't have much luck.  So finally decide to give up and head home.  Get home the next day with $200 in my pocket.

In case you missed it, I left Tucson with $150 and arrived home with $200. And spent over a week coming back and drove something like 2200 miles, about 400 miles further than direct.

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In mid-June of 2007, I started a new RS account, this one.  Near the end of June I accidently pmed a friend that did not know I had started a new account asking her about her recent mute.  She did not know who I was then and to this day she does not know that I have this account.  Anyway, she called me a "wannabe mod."

I never thought any more about it and kept leveling my fishing and cooking.

Then one day in mid-July I get a mod invite in my message box.  I am shocked.  I have had this account 33 days.  So, I think about it and come up with a plan.  Later that day, JMod Bonney saw me playing.  He pmed me asking me to accept the invitation. I am again shocked.  I not only get an official invite in the message center - I get a one-on-one Jmod personal invite, too!!!  After chatting for about 15 minutes, JMod Bonney left.

3 days later my friend was on.  She had never visually seen my character before. She did not know who this level 3 was when I tried to trade her some of my noob stuff.

After the trade I reminded her of her "wannabe mod" comment and told her I would be back shortly with my crown.

Then I quickly logged. Opened the invite and accepted.  Immediately logged back in and tried to trade my friend again.  When I talked, the crown, of course, showed.  She was shell-shocked.  A new level 3 and a mod already!

A couple of months later I got mad.  So mad I started punching bags in the Varrock Gym. I leveled up to level 4 combat and I got MADDER.  I did not know those bags would level my combat - I wanted to stay a level 3 forever!  I quit punching those bags and have managed to remain a level 4 mod every since.

Back in 1987 there was a stock market crash.  On the day it crashed, Black Monday, October 19th, I was in Austin, Texas on my way home from taking a three-week vacation.  I was in an Aamco Transmission shop when I saw it on the news.

When I got home, I took an extra 3 days off and spent them in the local library researching the 1929 stock market crash that occured on Black Tuesday, 29 October 1929.  What I found was surprising to say the least.

Early in 1997, around about Easter, I noticed that the stock market was again showing signs of an impending crash.  So, I did some more research.  Then I told a bunch of friends and associates that the market would crash on Monday, October 27th in 1997.  Of course, no one listened - they thought I was nuts.  Three of the people I told were commodity brokers and if they had sold that day they would have made lots of money.  Two did nothing - the other bought and lost $20,000 that day.  I sold and made $3000.

When I went on vacation in the Fall of 1997, I cut the vacation short by 2 days.  I wanted to be in my broker's office to watch the market fall that day.  So, on Monday the 27th of October, I was in the broker's office at 6am when the markets opened.  I sat there until 1:15pm watching the market go down, down, down all day long.  At the end of the day, I took a screen print of the activity showing the steep 8.5% daily drop on that Monday.  I still have that screen print copy.

Now I see the same scenario shaping up again and have repeatedly told people for the last year that we will probably have a stock market crash on Friday, October 24th this year.  The closer we get, the more sure it looks like this is again a year for a major crash.

So, what do I expect.  First the last day of August we should see a major high point.  In 1929, 1987, and 1997, this high was an all time record high.  I just looked at a Dow Jones chart.  It looks like we MIGHT possibly have an all time high on the last day of August this year.  But, even if we don't have an all time high on that date, it will still be a major high coming off of its recent lows on July 15th.

After Labor Day, I expect the markets this year to follow previous crash scenarios - lots of choppy wild markets in a general downtrend, probably dropping 15-20% by the end of September.

The last day of September promises to be a MAJOR turning point in world politics affecting many areas, especially the financial markets.

Sometime in October, most likely near the beginning of the month, I expect some MAJOR financial shocks which will drive the market through the floor.  One of the things I expect is HORRIBLE profit reports for MOST of the major companies listed on the stock exchanges.  And quite possibly bankruptcy of some of those companies whose stocks make up the Dow Jones Industrial Averages.

Why?  Raw material costs.  In the last two years the price of aluminum is up 60%, copper up 350%, and steel up a whopping 615%.  If gasoline had kept pace with steel prices, the average cost of gasoline in the United States today would be $12 per gallon, not the rather LOW price of $4 per gallon we are currently paying.  Stop and think about what the cost of raw materials is doing to the car manufacturers and their suppliers.  Then think about cars that cost SIX times more than they cost today.  HORRIBLE profits and impending bankruptcies are coming this October, and that WILL drive the markets down.

One of the things I expect to begin in October is a massive redemption of Treasury Notes by the holders of them.  These Treasury Notes can be redeemed at any time by the holders - They can demand that the U.S. Government redeem them at any time.  Who holds the vast majority of Treasury Notes?  The Japanese.  The Germans.  The Saudis.  The Chinese.  Hundreds of Billions of Dollars worth.  Why will they want to redeem them?  Because the longer they hold them, the more money they lose.  Any time the inflation rate exceeds the interest on the Treasury Notes, the holder LOSES money.  Historically, the holders have lost money, but only in relatively small percentages.  However, they are now losing extreme amounts of money because of REAL inflation (see above) instead of the FICTITIOUS rate the Fed publishes.  After the end of September I envision a MAD RUSH to redeem them while the U.S. Government still has money to redeem them.  This will also drive the stock markets down.

What will happen?  The U.S. Government is essentially BROKE and CANNOT redeem more than one or two percent of all the Treasury Notes outstanding.  So, the government will have two basic choices.  First, refuse to redeem them, essentially reneging on our word when we sold them and thereby STEALING from the Note holders.  Or, second, crank up the printing presses and redeem them with WORTHLESS money, again reneging on our promises.  The second option is the scariest one because it will mean HYPERINFLATION to the extreme essentially winding up in the same position that the German Weimer Republic was in when Hitler was ELECTED to his office whereby it literally took wheelbarrow loads of money to buy a loaf of bread.  The end result is MORE EXTREME pressure on the stock market.

Now think about this.  If you defaulted on your payment to your bank on your house mortgage, what would the bank do?  You got it.  They would repossess your house.  We have made the Japanese, Germans, Saudis, and Chinese our bankers lending us money based on our PROMISE to redeem those notes on demand.  If we default, whether by refusing to redeem them or by paying in worthless money, what do you think they will want to do?  You got it.  REPOSSESS OUR COUNTRY.  AND AT THAT POINT WE CANNOT FUND A WAR BECAUSE WE HAVE NO MONEY!!!  And if we can't fund a war to protect ourselves, we become sitting ducks for any pipsqueak nation to invade us.

I expect other financial shocks, too, but I think I have shocked all of you enough in this post, so I won't go into them here.

OK.  Enough of that.  Now for my findings and projection this year.  See the table below.

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		1929	1987	1997	2008 Projected
High date		September 3	August 24	August 29	August 29
High day		Tuesday Day after Labor Day	Monday	Friday	Friday
High moon cycle day		28	29	26	28
Low date		October 29	October 19	October 27	October 24
Low day		Tuesday	Monday	Monday	Friday
Low moon cycle day		25	26	26	25
Days from high to low		56	56	59	56
Percent drop high to low		39.5%	39.5%	Notes lost	You guess

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The Moon cycle day is the number of days since the last new moon.

Note the High moon cycle day row.  In 1929 the 28th day landed the Tuesday after Labor Day.  In 1987, the 28th landed on a Sunday and the stock market was closed.  So, the high actually landed a day late, the following Monday.  In 1997, the 28th again landed on a Sunday, but Monday was Labor Day and the markets were closed.  So, the actual high landed on the Friday before, the 26th day of the moon cycle.  If it were not for the markets being closed, I believe all of these would have landed on the 28th day of the moon cycle.

Now note the Low moon cycle day.  In both 1987 and 1997, the 25th landed on a Sunday, the day the markets were closed.  I believe that the low in all cases would fall on the 25th day of the moon cycle if the markets were open.

Needless to say, the Labor Day weekend messed up the day count in 1997, but in the other years the day count is exactly 8 weeks, or 56 days.

The percentage drop in both 1929 & 1987 rounds to EXACTLY the same percentage.  I think 1997 did, too, but I can't find my notes and I don't remember the actual numbers.  For 2008 you can plug in your own guess based on the above material.

To sum this all up, here is the scenario this year based on my research.  We are currently having a bear market rally in the stock market.  I expect it to top out on Friday, August 29th, possibly at an all time high.  After Labor Day I expect a general downward trend, then in October financial shocks in rapid succession.  Finally, on Friday, October 24th I expect the market to hit a TEMPORARY low.  In 1929, the market resumed going down and finally bottomed out in mid-1934, 5 years later.  Projecting that to today, we can expect the stock market to resume dropping until mid-2013.  I don't know how low is low, but I have heard that we could possibly see the DJIA at 400, down considerably from the current 11500 or so.

Can you weather the coming storm now VISIBLE on the horizon???