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Last Updated: 11/5/2008

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Gender: Male
Status: Single
Age: 49
Sign: Gemini

City: TUCSON
State: ARIZONA
Country: US
Signup Date: 10/28/2006

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Friday, October 12, 2007 

PROFORECASTS 10/12/07 FRI (Premium with Subscriber and Free parts)

  Accuracy yesterday:  70.8%, UP +3590 in futures pips

  Best to Use ProForecats and Sample Portfolios:

     http://proforecasts.com/guide.htm

  To Be a Subscriber or Premium by 9amET:

    www.propredict.proforecasts.com/subscribe.htm

  To Receive the Free Weekly ProForecasts by Sunday:

    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ProPredictPredictions/

  Today's Featured Article:  http://www.investors.com/

 

Hold on futures, ProFunds and options for today.  Stocks of the Day, Example Portfolio, options and futures all beat the market averages except one (CBS MarketWatch).  Consider the list of ProStocks just emailed out and listed below as the Stocks of the Day for premium subscribers.  Check results right below as of this week we are still ahead of the markets.  I still predict the DJIA will be at 14250 by the end of the year.

 

With 5-10% in futures that would give a portfolio return of about 35-45% (way ahead of the market).  Shows that even with less than perfect predictions, you can make an above-average profit.  You only need to be accurate 76.5% to make a significant profit.  InvestorTools states, "80% of all mutual funds perform under the market."

 

Results as of Last Week:  (add 6.7% for 5% futures, 13.4% for 10% futures)

  UP 7.9%, 10.2% annualized in CBS MarketWatch!

    UP 10% SP500

    UP 13% DJIA

  UP 13.8%, 18.0% annualized in DIA!

  UP 14.5%, 18.8% annualized in SPY!

    UP 15% Nasdaq

  UP 17.8%, 23.1% annualized average in stock portfolios since 2003!

  (For all major funds the three year annualized return is from 3.49% to at best 20.89%.)

  UP 22.0%, 28.6% annualized in QQQQ!    

  UP 24.5%, 31.8% annualized for Stocks of the Day!

  UP 32.0%, 41.7% annualized in ProFunds!

  UP 102.7% (133.5% annualized) in futures (all yr-long funds stay same for long-term)!

  UP 118% annualized in Recommended Stocks in four days (1.9% in four days)! 

 

>>>Free ProForecasts:  World Markets Weekly!

  (Subscriber and Premium below if subscriber):

 

Weekly Market Forecasts and Last Week's Results:  100%

  Still practicing on world markets for now.

  US:
    DJIA (14,066.01) week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    SP500 (1557.59): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    Nasdaq (2780.32): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    TNotes (102-20): this week flat/DOWN (accurate last week)
  Australia:  ASX 200 Index (6605.40) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  New Zealand:  NZX 50 FF Index (4284.05) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Japan:  NIKKEI Index (17,065.04) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Hong Kong:  Hang Seng Index (27,831.52) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  China:  SHSE-SZSE300 Index (5580.81) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Qatar:  DSM 20 Index (8403.41) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  India:   BSE SENSEX 30 (17,773.36) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  UK:  FTSE 400 (6595.80) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  Germany:  DAX (8002.18) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  France:  CAC 40 (5843.24) flat/UP (accurate last week)

 

>>>Subscriber ProForecasts:  ProFunds, Options, Stocks of the Day,

   Stocks per Day, LT Stocks! (Premium below if subscriber):

  UltraBull 81.42 -0.81

  Total so far:  +7.26

  From previous position:  +4.17

  From previous position:  -10.15

  From previous position:  +24.93, total so far:  +26.21; 32.0%; annualized 41.7%

Options:
  DIA:  140.21 -0.52

     Total so far:  +6.22 

     From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.87

     From previous positions:  +11.35, total so far:  +19.44; 13.8%; annualized 18.0%

  SPY:  155.47 -0.75

    Total so far:  +6.95

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +0.68

    From previous positions:  +14.95, total so far:  +22.58; 14.5%; annualized 18.8%

  QQQQ:  52.66 -0.85

    Total so far:  +3.60

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.41

    From previous positions:  +6.60, total so far:  +11.61; 22.0%; annualized 28.6%

Stocks of the Day:

  GS 229.01 -6.93

  MS 67.06 -0.47

  TGT 64.62 -1.15

  CAT 79.44 -1.72

  BHP 83.66 +1.62

  BA 96.26 -2.42

  RIG 115.28 +0.84

  MDRX 26.29 -0.94

  NUE 56.60 -1.70

  RIO 34.10 -0.15

  Total So Far:  +54.63

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +48.19

  From previous portfolio closed Thursday, August 11, 2007:  -24.97

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -13.3

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, April 23, 2007:  +72.5 annualized 25.1%

  From previous portfolio closed June, 2007 +72.9 annualized 15.2%
  Total +209.88, 24.5%; annualized: 31.8%

Stocks to Consider for Significant Movement per Day This Week:
  (consider buying now or the day before)

  NONE at this time; all cash for now.

Twelve Stocks to Consider for Long-Term Portfolio:

  Including price and their ranking on MSN Stock Scouter 1-10

  WHR (112.40), 7

  BDK (95.19), 8

  ATI (115.18), 6

  BGC (65.57), 9

  HON (57.79), 8

  ASD (57.02), 6

  JCI (109.91), 8

  MDR (70.65), 6

  FWLT (95.91), 6

 CAT (74.88), 7

 TEX (82.34), 9

 DE (120.00), 7

 Total:  999.05

 Now:  1007.42  0.08%


>>>Premium ProForecasts

% is accuracy yesterday;
Quote is yesterday's close;

  no * = inaccurate;
d = down (usually indicating stay in position);
s = sideways (usually within 0.5% indicating do nothing);
u = up (usually indicating stay in position)
(if capitalized, forecast has changed since last forecast, usually indicating a potential trade or close position)

PROFUTURES-Finance/Energy (63%)
  DJIA 14015.12 * SD

  SP500 1554.41 * SD

  Nasdaq 2772.20 SD

  Note10yr 102-19 ** S

  Gold 753.80 ** su
  Silver 13.85 ** su

  Copper 364.60 ** su
  Oil 82.94 sd

  HOil 224.46 sd

  NGas 6.854 ** sd

Example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-FE: DJ106a20S SP1195.70S NA1576S NT1112.9s GD423.5SD SL6.65sd
CP140.15sd OL48.28S HO134.38u NG60.80sd

PROFUTURES-Farm (20%)
Wheat 883.00 d
Corn 342.50 ** d
Soybeans 976.75 d
BeanOil 39.40 sd
Cotton 63.73 sd
Cattle 97.925 d
Hogs 60.925 d
Sugar 9.81 ** sd
Coffee 138.25 sd
Cocoa 1855 * d

 

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-F: WH296.5sd CN196d SY513.5d BO28.88u CT46.71su CA91.12u HG75.57su
SG8.84sd CF104.4SU CC14.96d

PROFUTURES-Curriencies (100%):
  AustralianD .8990 ** u
  GBP 2.0301 ** su
  Canadian$ 1.0241 ** u
  Euro 1.4219 ** sd

  Yen .8581 ** d
  Swiss .8503 ** sd
  Real: .5528 ** s
  Peso: .092400 ** s
  US$ 78.05 ** sd
  Yuan (to $): 0.0835 ** s

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-C: AUD75.33sd GBP18599d CAD81.79SD EUR130.4d JPY98.16su CHF84.16sd
RL.4615s PS.091050s USD83.46su

PROFUTURES-Forex (100%):
  AUD/USD: .9013 ** su

  GBP/JPY: 238.58 ** su
  GBP/USD: 2.0322 ** su
  EUR/GBP: .6987 ** sd
  EUR/JPY: 166.70 ** s
  EUR/CHF: 1.6776 ** s
  EUR/USD: 1.4199 ** s
  USD/CAD: .9772 ** sd
  USD/JPY: 117.40 ** s
  USD/CHF: 1.1815 ** s

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-X: A/U.7570sd C/Y223.51s G/U1.8650sd E/G.6759s E/Y133.46sd
E/F1.5434s E/U1.3023sd U/C1.2206s U/Y102.48s U/F1.1849su

 

>>>Results:

All documented and linked at www.proforecasts.com/results.htm
Futures: 2007: +473; 2006: +3855; total +4390

Futures (www.mocktrading.com): 

  2003-2006: 1020.6%

  2006: 219%

  2007: 56.7% (annualized 95.1%)
Stocks:  CBS MarketWatch (http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/): 

  2006:  53.21%

  2007:  2.19% (3.67% annualized)

Marketocracy (www.marketocracy.com):  average:  20.4% 
  Portfolio-Conservative:  2003-2007:  89.5%; annualized:  20.5%

  Portfolio-Aggressive:  2003-2007:  106.7%; annualized:  24.6%

  Portfolio-Speculative:  2003-2007:  78.6%; annualized:  18.1%

  Portfolio-2006-2007:  29.6%; annualized 18.5%

 

>>>Documentation:

The Yahoo group is the main group where the predictions have been listed since 2003 but the ProForecasts are also listed by 9:25amET at:
  ProForecasts site: http://www.proforecasts.com/today.htm
  BayStreet.com: http://www.baystreet.ca/forums/forum.cfm?FID=13
  Blogger: http://profutures.blogspot.com/
  Google-Groups: http://groups.google.com/group/propredictions/?msg=new
  MySpace: http://blog.myspace.com/propredict

  MSN:  http://groups.msn.com/ProForecasts/_whatsnew.msnw
  Topica:
  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredict/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626777

  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626980

 http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions1/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958627022 

 

>>>Sources We Summarize to Find Consensus:

  1. Investor's Business Daily Top 100
  2. Channeling Stocks
  3. Guerilla Trades
  4. Morningstar
  5. Zacks
  6. ValueLine
  7. Barron's ("Barron's Effect")
  8. CNBC ("CNBC Bounce")
  9. Mad Money
  10. Saturday Fox Business four shows (Bull & Bears, etc.)
  11. over 12 more investing newsletters
  12. over 24 more 'tips" sources

We read and listen to these respectable sources to obtain the stocks and investments that have great fundamentals, sector and technical analysis (why duplicate what these sources already do well), then use the summary and consensus of them to pick from for our intuitive analysis. If you have any other sources, you think we should be considering, please let us know.  Thanks!

 

>>>Market Timing Accuracy Requirement:

*1"one must be able to predict the market with at least 83% accuracy,
a predictive ability that would be extremely difficult for even the
best market timer to sustain...If one compares the market timer's
return to that of a portfolio of stocks and cash weighted to have the
same standard deviation as the market timer's portfolio, the result
is that the market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to
perform better than the passive portfolio of the same risk. So even
after adjusting for risk, a significant predictive ability still is
required." (William Sharpe, "Likely Gains from Market Timing",
MBA-Finance Dept). http://www.quickmba.com/finance/invest/timing/

 

>>>Example Portfolio:

  XOM 92.66 -0.47

  MHS 91.11 -1.22

  EPD 31.75 -0.32

  RIMM 111.00 -5.88

  FCX 113.46 -3.63

  COP 85.72 -1.01

  GOOG 622.00 -3.39

  T 41.61 -0.14

  DE 152.78 -1.92

  FWLT 144.04 -4.56

  Total so far:  +112.53

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +39.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, August 11, 2007:  -9.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -46.21  Total so far:  +80.87

 

>>>Subscriber Questions and Answers;

Thursday, October 11, 2007 
PROFORECASTS Thu 10/11/07

The ProForecasts will be brief today since I flew in from Tucson to New York City last night and haven't slept for 36 hours.  They will resume to their full-length today for tomorrow.

 

DJIA  (14,078.69) *** SU

SP500 (2811.61) *** SU

Nasdaq (1562.47) *** SU

T-Notes (102-15) *** sd

 

Thank you for your understanding and patience.

Jeff (aka ProPredict)
 
Wednesday, October 10, 2007 

PROFORECASTS 10/10/07 WED (Premium with Subscriber and Free parts)

  Accuracy yesterday:  74.3%, UP +3590 in futures pips

  Best to Use ProForecats and Sample Portfolios:

     http://proforecasts.com/guide.htm

  To Be a Subscriber or Premium by 9amET:

    www.propredict.proforecasts.com/subscribe.htm

  To Receive the Free Weekly ProForecasts by Sunday:

    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ProPredictPredictions/

  Today's Featured Article:  http://www.investors.com/

 

Stocks of the Day, Example Portfolio, options and futures all beat the market averages except one (CBS MarketWatch).  Consider the list of ProStocks just emailed out and listed below as the Stocks of the Day for premium subscribers.  Check results right below as of this week we are still ahead of the markets.  I still predict the DJIA will be at 14250 by the end of the year.

 

With 5-10% in futures that would give a portfolio return of about 35-45% (way ahead of the market).  Shows that even with less than perfect predictions, you can make an above-average profit.  You only need to be accurate 76.5% to make a significant profit.  InvestorTools states, "80% of all mutual funds perform under the market."

 

Results as of Last Week:  (add 6.7% for 5% futures, 13.4% for 10% futures)

  UP 7.9%, 10.2% annualized in CBS MarketWatch!

    UP 10% SP500

    UP 13% DJIA

  UP 13.8%, 18.0% annualized in DIA!

  UP 14.5%, 18.8% annualized in SPY!

    UP 15% Nasdaq

  UP 17.8%, 23.1% annualized average in stock portfolios since 2003!

  (For all major funds the three year annualized return is from 3.49% to at best 20.89%.)

  UP 22.0%, 28.6% annualized in QQQQ!    

  UP 24.5%, 31.8% annualized for Stocks of the Day!

  UP 32.0%, 41.7% annualized in ProFunds!

  UP 102.7% (133.5% annualized) in futures (all yr-long funds stay same for long-term)!

  UP 118% annualized in Recommended Stocks in four days (1.9% in four days)! 

 

>>>Free ProForecasts:  World Markets Weekly!

  (Subscriber and Premium below if subscriber):

 

Weekly Market Forecasts and Last Week's Results:  100%

  Still practicing on world markets for now.

  US:
    DJIA (14,066.01) week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    SP500 (1557.59): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    Nasdaq (2780.32): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    TNotes (102-20): this week flat/DOWN (accurate last week)
  Australia:  ASX 200 Index (6605.40) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  New Zealand:  NZX 50 FF Index (4284.05) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Japan:  NIKKEI Index (17,065.04) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Hong Kong:  Hang Seng Index (27,831.52) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  China:  SHSE-SZSE300 Index (5580.81) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Qatar:  DSM 20 Index (8403.41) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  India:   BSE SENSEX 30 (17,773.36) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  UK:  FTSE 400 (6595.80) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  Germany:  DAX (8002.18) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  France:  CAC 40 (5843.24) flat/UP (accurate last week)

 

>>>Subscriber ProForecasts:  ProFunds, Options, Stocks of the Day,

   Stocks per Day, LT Stocks! (Premium below if subscriber):

  UltraBull 82.57 +1.29

  Total so far:  +7.26

  From previous position:  +4.17

  From previous position:  -10.15

  From previous position:  +24.93, total so far:  +26.21; 32.0%; annualized 41.7%

Options:
  DIA:  141.57 +1.31

     Total so far:  +6.22 

     From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.87

     From previous positions:  +11.35, total so far:  +19.44; 13.8%; annualized 18.0%

  SPY:  156.48 +1.46

    Total so far:  +6.95

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +0.68

    From previous positions:  +14.95, total so far:  +22.58; 14.5%; annualized 18.8%

  QQQQ:  53.38 +0.23

    Total so far:  +3.60

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.41

    From previous positions:  +6.60, total so far:  +11.61; 22.0%; annualized 28.6%

Stocks of the Day:

  GS 239.30 +12.24

  MS 69.09 +1.15

  TGT 65.75 -0.56

  CAT 82.51 +1.17

  BHP 81.48 +3.04

  BA 101.45 +0.38

  RIG 111.29 +1.41

  MDRX 26.68 +0.51

  NUE 58.77 +1.50

  RIO 34.35 +1.08

  Total So Far:  +67.65

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +48.19

  From previous portfolio closed Thursday, August 11, 2007:  -24.97

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -13.3

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, April 23, 2007:  +72.5 annualized 25.1%

  From previous portfolio closed June, 2007 +72.9 annualized 15.2%
  Total +209.88, 24.5%; annualized: 31.8%

Stocks to Consider for Significant Movement per Day This Week:
  (consider buying now or the day before)

  NONE at this time; all cash for now.

Twelve Stocks to Consider for Long-Term Portfolio:

  Including price and their ranking on MSN Stock Scouter 1-10

  WHR (112.40), 7

  BDK (95.19), 8

  ATI (115.18), 6

  BGC (65.57), 9

  HON (57.79), 8

  ASD (57.02), 6

  JCI (109.91), 8

  MDR (70.65), 6

  FWLT (95.91), 6

 CAT (74.88), 7

 TEX (82.34), 9

 DE (120.00), 7

 Total:  999.05

 Now:  1007.42  0.08%


>>>Premium ProForecasts

% is accuracy yesterday;
Quote is yesterday's close;

  no * = inaccurate;
d = down (usually indicating stay in position);
s = sideways (usually within 0.5% indicating do nothing);
u = up (usually indicating stay in position)
(if capitalized, forecast has changed since last forecast, usually indicating a potential trade or close position)

PROFUTURES-Finance/Energy (78%)
  DJIA 14164.53 ** SU

  SP500 1565.15 ** SU

  Nasdaq 2803.91 ** SU

  Note10yr 102-71 ** sd
  Gold 744.60 ** su
  Silver 13.60 ** su

  Copper 361.50 ** su
  Oil 80.00 sd

  HOil 218.10 sd

  NGas 6.892 * sd

Example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-FE: DJ106a20S SP1195.70S NA1576S NT1112.9s GD423.5SD SL6.65sd
CP140.15sd OL48.28S HO134.38u NG60.80sd

PROFUTURES-Farm (29%)
Wheat 845.00 * D
Corn 343.70 d
Soybeans 955.00 d
BeanOil 38.45 sd
Cotton 62.98 ** sd
Cattle 96.55 ** d
Hogs 59.80 * d
Sugar 96.55 sd
Coffee 133.75 SD
Cocoa 1823 * d

 

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-F: WH296.5sd CN196d SY513.5d BO28.88u CT46.71su CA91.12u HG75.57su
SG8.84sd CF104.4SU CC14.96d

PROFUTURES-Curriencies (100%):
  AustralianD .8963 ** u
  GBP 2.0353 ** SU
  Canadian$ 1.0182 ** u
  Euro 1.4118 ** sd

  Yen .8602 ** d
  Swiss .8486 ** sd
  Real: .5534 ** s
  Peso: .092375 ** s
  US$ 78.435 ** sd
  Yuan (to $): 0.0835 ** s

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-C: AUD75.33sd GBP18599d CAD81.79SD EUR130.4d JPY98.16su CHF84.16sd
RL.4615s PS.091050s USD83.46su

PROFUTURES-Forex (90%):
  AUD/USD: .8988 ** su

  GBP/JPY: 238.94 ** SU
  GBP/USD: 2.0388 ** su
  EUR/GBP: .6916 sd
  EUR/JPY: 165.25 ** s
  EUR/CHF: 1.6691 ** s
  EUR/USD: 1.4100 ** s
  USD/CAD: .9824 ** sd
  USD/JPY: 117.20 ** s
  USD/CHF: 1.1838 ** s

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-X: A/U.7570sd C/Y223.51s G/U1.8650sd E/G.6759s E/Y133.46sd
E/F1.5434s E/U1.3023sd U/C1.2206s U/Y102.48s U/F1.1849su

 

>>>Results:

All documented and linked at www.proforecasts.com/results.htm
Futures: 2007: +473; 2006: +3855; total +4390

Futures (www.mocktrading.com): 

  2003-2006: 1020.6%

  2006: 219%

  2007: 56.7% (annualized 95.1%)
Stocks:  CBS MarketWatch (http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/): 

  2006:  53.21%

  2007:  2.19% (3.67% annualized)

Marketocracy (www.marketocracy.com):  average:  20.4% 
  Portfolio-Conservative:  2003-2007:  89.5%; annualized:  20.5%

  Portfolio-Aggressive:  2003-2007:  106.7%; annualized:  24.6%

  Portfolio-Speculative:  2003-2007:  78.6%; annualized:  18.1%

  Portfolio-2006-2007:  29.6%; annualized 18.5%

 

>>>Documentation:

The Yahoo group is the main group where the predictions have been listed since 2003 but the ProForecasts are also listed by 9:25amET at:
  ProForecasts site: http://www.proforecasts.com/today.htm
  BayStreet.com: http://www.baystreet.ca/forums/forum.cfm?FID=13
  Blogger: http://profutures.blogspot.com/
  Google-Groups: http://groups.google.com/group/propredictions/?msg=new
  MySpace: http://blog.myspace.com/propredict

  MSN:  http://groups.msn.com/ProForecasts/_whatsnew.msnw
  Topica:
  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredict/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626777

  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626980

 http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions1/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958627022 

 

>>>Sources We Summarize to Find Consensus:

  1. Investor's Business Daily Top 100
  2. Channeling Stocks
  3. Guerilla Trades
  4. Morningstar
  5. Zacks
  6. ValueLine
  7. Barron's ("Barron's Effect")
  8. CNBC ("CNBC Bounce")
  9. Mad Money
  10. Saturday Fox Business four shows (Bull & Bears, etc.)
  11. over 12 more investing newsletters
  12. over 24 more 'tips" sources

We read and listen to these respectable sources to obtain the stocks and investments that have great fundamentals, sector and technical analysis (why duplicate what these sources already do well), then use the summary and consensus of them to pick from for our intuitive analysis. If you have any other sources, you think we should be considering, please let us know.  Thanks!

 

>>>Market Timing Accuracy Requirement:

*1"one must be able to predict the market with at least 83% accuracy,
a predictive ability that would be extremely difficult for even the
best market timer to sustain...If one compares the market timer's
return to that of a portfolio of stocks and cash weighted to have the
same standard deviation as the market timer's portfolio, the result
is that the market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to
perform better than the passive portfolio of the same risk. So even
after adjusting for risk, a significant predictive ability still is
required." (William Sharpe, "Likely Gains from Market Timing",
MBA-Finance Dept). http://www.quickmba.com/finance/invest/timing/

 

>>>Example Portfolio:

  XOM 92.67 +1.99

  MHS 90.92 +0.21

  EPD 31.74 +0.19

  RIMM 115.52 -2.13

  FCX 113.06 +4.93

  COP 85.88 +1.55

  GOOG 615.18 +5.57

  T 41.98 +0.05

  DE 151.51 +2.69

  FWLT 147.01 +5.21

  Total so far:  +135.07

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +39.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, August 11, 2007:  -9.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -46.21  Total so far:  +80.87

 

>>>Subscriber Questions and Answers;

 

 

 

 

 

Tuesday, October 09, 2007 

PROFORECASTS 10/9/07 TUE (Premium with Subscriber and Free parts)

  Accuracy yesterday:  82.3%, UP +3539 in futures pips

  Best to Use ProForecats and Sample Portfolios:

     http://proforecasts.com/guide.htm

  To Be a Subscriber or Premium by 9amET:

    www.propredict.proforecasts.com/subscribe.htm

  To Receive the Free Weekly ProForecasts by Sunday:

    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ProPredictPredictions/

  Today's Featured Article:  http://www.investors.com/

 

Stocks of the Day, Example Portfolio, options and futures all beat the market averages except one (CBS MarketWatch).  Consider the list of ProStocks just emailed out and listed below as the Stocks of the Day for premium subscribers.  Check results right below as of this week we are still ahead of the markets.  I still predict the DJIA will be at 14250 by the end of the year.

 

With 5-10% in futures that would give a portfolio return of about 35-45% (way ahead of the market).  Shows that even with less than perfect predictions, you can make an above-average profit.  You only need to be accurate 76.5% to make a significant profit.  InvestorTools states, "80% of all mutual funds perform under the market."

 

Results as of Last Week:  (add 6.7% for 5% futures, 13.4% for 10% futures)

  UP 7.9%, 10.2% annualized in CBS MarketWatch!

    UP 10% SP500

    UP 13% DJIA

  UP 13.8%, 18.0% annualized in DIA!

  UP 14.5%, 18.8% annualized in SPY!

    UP 15% Nasdaq

  UP 17.8%, 23.1% annualized average in stock portfolios since 2003!

  (For all major funds the three year annualized return is from 3.49% to at best 20.89%.)

  UP 22.0%, 28.6% annualized in QQQQ!    

  UP 24.5%, 31.8% annualized for Stocks of the Day!

  UP 32.0%, 41.7% annualized in ProFunds!

  UP 102.7% (133.5% annualized) in futures (all yr-long funds stay same for long-term)!

  UP 118% annualized in Recommended Stocks in four days (1.9% in four days)! 

 

>>>Free ProForecasts:  World Markets Weekly!

  (Subscriber and Premium below if subscriber):

 

Weekly Market Forecasts and Last Week's Results:  100%

  Still practicing on world markets for now.

  US:
    DJIA (14,066.01) week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    SP500 (1557.59): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    Nasdaq (2780.32): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    TNotes (102-20): this week flat/DOWN (accurate last week)
  Australia:  ASX 200 Index (6605.40) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  New Zealand:  NZX 50 FF Index (4284.05) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Japan:  NIKKEI Index (17,065.04) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Hong Kong:  Hang Seng Index (27,831.52) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  China:  SHSE-SZSE300 Index (5580.81) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Qatar:  DSM 20 Index (8403.41) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  India:   BSE SENSEX 30 (17,773.36) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  UK:  FTSE 400 (6595.80) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  Germany:  DAX (8002.18) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  France:  CAC 40 (5843.24) flat/UP (accurate last week)

 

>>>Subscriber ProForecasts:  ProFunds, Options, Stocks of the Day,

   Stocks per Day, LT Stocks! (Premium below if subscriber):

  UltraBull 81.28 -0.52

  Total so far:  +7.26

  From previous position:  +4.17

  From previous position:  -10.15

  From previous position:  +24.93, total so far:  +26.21; 32.0%; annualized 41.7%

Options:
  DIA:  140.26 -0.42

     Total so far:  +6.22 

     From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.87

     From previous positions:  +11.35, total so far:  +19.44; 13.8%; annualized 18.0%

  SPY:  155.02 -0.83

    Total so far:  +6.95

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +0.68

    From previous positions:  +14.95, total so far:  +22.58; 14.5%; annualized 18.8%

  QQQQ:  53.15 +0.33

    Total so far:  +3.60

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.41

    From previous positions:  +6.60, total so far:  +11.61; 22.0%; annualized 28.6%

Stocks of the Day:

  GS 226.96 -1.54

  MS 67.94 -0.96

  TGT 66.31 -1.26

  CAT 81.34 +1.01

  BHP 78.44 -1.08

  BA 101.07 -1.18

  RIG 109.88 -2.99

  MDRX 26.17 +0.23

  NUE 57.27 -0.77

  RIO 33.27 -0.29

  Total So Far:  +45.73

  </span>From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +48.19

  From previous portfolio closed Thursday, August 11, 2007:  -24.97

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -13.3

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, April 23, 2007:  +72.5 annualized 25.1%

  From previous portfolio closed June, 2007 +72.9 annualized 15.2%
  Total +209.88, 24.5%; annualized: 31.8%

Stocks to Consider for Significant Movement per Day This Week:
  (consider buying now or the day before)

  NONE at this time; all cash for now.

Twelve Stocks to Consider for Long-Term Portfolio:

  Including price and their ranking on MSN Stock Scouter 1-10

  WHR (112.40), 7

  BDK (95.19), 8

  ATI (115.18), 6

  BGC (65.57), 9

  HON (57.79), 8

  ASD (57.02), 6

  JCI (109.91), 8

  MDR (70.65), 6

  FWLT (95.91), 6

 CAT (74.88), 7

 TEX (82.34), 9

 DE (120.00), 7

 Total:  999.05

 Now:  1007.42  0.08%


>>>Premium ProForecasts

% is accuracy yesterday;
Quote is yesterday's close;

  no * = inaccurate;
d = down (usually indicating stay in position);
s = sideways (usually within 0.5% indicating do nothing);
u = up (usually indicating stay in position)
(if capitalized, forecast has changed since last forecast, usually indicating a potential trade or close position)

PROFUTURES-Finance/Energy (40%)
  DJIA 14043.73 ** U

  SP500 1552.58 ** U

  Nasdaq 2787.37 ** U

  Note10yr 102-18 ** sd
  Gold 736.80 su
  Silver 13.315 su

  Copper 361.00 SU
  Oil 78.83 SD

  HOil 215.61 SD

  NGas 6.867 SD

Example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-FE: DJ106a20S SP1195.70S NA1576S NT1112.9s GD423.5SD SL6.65sd
CP140.15sd OL48.28S HO134.38u NG60.80sd

PROFUTURES-Farm (89%)
Wheat 838.00 SD
Corn 339.50 ** d
Soybeans 927.25 ** d
BeanOil 37.98 ** sd
Cotton 62.43 ** sd
Cattle 96.70 * d
Hogs 59.575 ** d
Sugar 9.75 ** SD
Coffee 138.75 ** u
Cocoa 1816 ** d

 

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-F: WH296.5sd CN196d SY513.5d BO28.88u CT46.71su CA91.12u HG75.57su
SG8.84sd CF104.4SU CC14.96d

PROFUTURES-Curriencies (100%):
  AustralianD .8905 * u
  GBP 2.0317 * u
  Canadian$ 1.0140 * u
  Euro 1.4054 ** sd

  Yen .8609 ** d
  Swiss .8470 ** SD
  Real: .5518 ** s
  Peso: .092150 ** s
  US$ 78.70 ** sd
  Yuan (to $): 0.0835 ** s

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-C: AUD75.33sd GBP18599d CAD81.79SD EUR130.4d JPY98.16su CHF84.16sd
RL.4615s PS.091050s USD83.46su

PROFUTURES-Forex (100%):
  AUD/USD: .8937 ** su

  GBP/JPY: 238.43 * u
  GBP/USD: 2.0348 ** su
  EUR/GBP: .6867 ** sd
  EUR/JPY: 164.44 ** s
  EUR/CHF: 1.6654 ** s
  EUR/USD: 1.4034 * s
  USD/CAD: .9869 ** sd
  USD/JPY: 117.18 ** s
  USD/CHF: 1.1867 * s

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-X: A/U.7570sd C/Y223.51s G/U1.8650sd E/G.6759s E/Y133.46sd
E/F1.5434s E/U1.3023sd U/C1.2206s U/Y102.48s U/F1.1849su

 

>>>Results:

All documented and linked at www.proforecasts.com/results.htm
Futures: 2007: +473; 2006: +3855; total +4390

Futures (www.mocktrading.com): 

  2003-2006: 1020.6%

  2006: 219%

  2007: 56.7% (annualized 95.1%)
Stocks:  CBS MarketWatch (http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/): 

  2006:  53.21%

  2007:  2.19% (3.67% annualized)

Marketocracy (www.marketocracy.com):  average:  20.4% 
  Portfolio-Conservative:  2003-2007:  89.5%; annualized:  20.5%

  Portfolio-Aggressive:  2003-2007:  106.7%; annualized:  24.6%

  Portfolio-Speculative:  2003-2007:  78.6%; annualized:  18.1%

  Portfolio-2006-2007:  29.6%; annualized 18.5%

 

>>>Documentation:

The Yahoo group is the main group where the predictions have been listed since 2003 but the ProForecasts are also listed by 9:25amET at:
  ProForecasts site: http://www.proforecasts.com/today.htm
  BayStreet.com: http://www.baystreet.ca/forums/forum.cfm?FID=13
  Blogger: http://profutures.blogspot.com/
  Google-Groups: http://groups.google.com/group/propredictions/?msg=new
  MySpace: http://blog.myspace.com/propredict

  MSN:  http://groups.msn.com/ProForecasts/_whatsnew.msnw
  Topica:
  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredict/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626777

  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626980

 http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions1/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958627022 

 

>>>Sources We Summarize to Find Consensus:

  1. Investor's Business Daily Top 100
  2. Channeling Stocks
  3. Guerilla Trades
  4. Morningstar
  5. Zacks
  6. ValueLine
  7. Barron's ("Barron's Effect")
  8. CNBC ("CNBC Bounce")
  9. Mad Money
  10. Saturday Fox Business four shows (Bull & Bears, etc.)
  11. over 12 more investing newsletters
  12. over 24 more 'tips" sources

We read and listen to these respectable sources to obtain the stocks and investments that have great fundamentals, sector and technical analysis (why duplicate what these sources already do well), then use the summary and consensus of them to pick from for our intuitive analysis. If you have any other sources, you think we should be considering, please let us know.  Thanks!

 

>>>Market Timing Accuracy Requirement:

*1"one must be able to predict the market with at least 83% accuracy,
a predictive ability that would be extremely difficult for even the
best market timer to sustain...If one compares the market timer's
return to that of a portfolio of stocks and cash weighted to have the
same standard deviation as the market timer's portfolio, the result
is that the market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to
perform better than the passive portfolio of the same risk. So even
after adjusting for risk, a significant predictive ability still is
required." (William Sharpe, "Likely Gains from Market Timing",
MBA-Finance Dept). http://www.quickmba.com/finance/invest/timing/

 

>>>Example Portfolio:

  XOM 90.68 -0.68

  MHS 90.71 -0.58

  EPD 31.55 -0.16

  RIMM 117.65 +4.28

  FCX 108.13 -2.53

  COP 84.33 +0.13

  GOOG 609.62 +15.57

  T 41.93 -0.21

  DE 148.62 +1.35

  FWLT 141.80 +0.56

  Total so far:  +114.81

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +39.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, August 11, 2007:  -9.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -46.21  Total so far:  +80.87

 

>>>Subscriber Questions and Answers;

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, October 08, 2007 

PROFORECASTS 10/8/07 MON (Premium with Subscriber and Free parts)

  Accuracy yesterday:  91.5%, UP +3591 in futures pips

  Best to Use ProForecats and Sample Portfolios:

     http://proforecasts.com/guide.htm

  To Be a Subscriber or Premium by 9amET:

    www.propredict.proforecasts.com/subscribe.htm

  To Receive the Free Weekly ProForecasts by Sunday:

    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ProPredictPredictions/

  Today's Featured Article:  http://www.investors.com/

 

Stocks of the Day, Example Portfolio, options and futures all beat the market averages except one (CBS MarketWatch).  Consider the list of ProStocks just emailed out and listed below as the Stocks of the Day for premium subscribers.  Check results right below as of this week we are still ahead of the markets.  I still predict the DJIA will be at 14250 by the end of the year.

 

With 5-10% in futures that would give a portfolio return of about 35-45% (way ahead of the market).  Shows that even with less than perfect predictions, you can make an above-average profit.  You only need to be accurate 76.5% to make a significant profit.  InvestorTools states, "80% of all mutual funds perform under the market."

 

Results as of Last Week:  (add 6.7% for 5% futures, 13.4% for 10% futures)

  UP 7.9%, 10.2% annualized in CBS MarketWatch!

    UP 10% SP500

    UP 13% DJIA

  UP 13.8%, 18.0% annualized in DIA!

  UP 14.5%, 18.8% annualized in SPY!

    UP 15% Nasdaq

  UP 17.8%, 23.1% annualized average in stock portfolios since 2003!

  (For all major funds the three year annualized return is from 3.49% to at best 20.89%.)

  UP 22.0%, 28.6% annualized in QQQQ!    

  UP 24.5%, 31.8% annualized for Stocks of the Day!

  UP 32.0%, 41.7% annualized in ProFunds!

  UP 102.7% (133.5% annualized) in futures (all yr-long funds stay same for long-term)!

  UP 118% annualized in Recommended Stocks in four days (1.9% in four days)! 

 

>>>Free ProForecasts:  World Markets Weekly!

  (Subscriber and Premium below if subscriber):

 

Weekly Market Forecasts and Last Week's Results:  100%

  Still practicing on world markets for now.

  US:
    DJIA (14,066.01) week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    SP500 (1557.59): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    Nasdaq (2780.32): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    TNotes (102-20): this week flat/DOWN (accurate last week)
  Australia:  ASX 200 Index (6605.40) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  New Zealand:  NZX 50 FF Index (4284.05) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Japan:  NIKKEI Index (17,065.04) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Hong Kong:  Hang Seng Index (27,831.52) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  China:  SHSE-SZSE300 Index (5580.81) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Qatar:  DSM 20 Index (8403.41) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  India:   BSE SENSEX 30 (17,773.36) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  UK:  FTSE 400 (6595.80) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  Germany:  DAX (8002.18) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  France:  CAC 40 (5843.24) flat/UP (accurate last week)

 

>>>Subscriber ProForecasts:  ProFunds, Options, Stocks of the Day,

   Stocks per Day, LT Stocks! (Premium below if subscriber):

  UltraBull 81.80 +1.57

  Total so far:  +7.26

  From previous position:  +4.17

  From previous position:  -10.15

  From previous position:  +24.93, total so far:  +26.21; 32.0%; annualized 41.7%

Options:
  DIA:  140.68 +1.17

     Total so far:  +6.22 

     From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.87

     From previous positions:  +11.35, total so far:  +19.44; 13.8%; annualized 18.0%

  SPY:  155.85 +1.83

    Total so far:  +6.95

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +0.68

    From previous positions:  +14.95, total so far:  +22.58; 14.5%; annualized 18.8%

  QQQQ:  52.82 +1.05

    Total so far:  +3.60

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.41

    From previous positions:  +6.60, total so far:  +11.61; 22.0%; annualized 28.6%

Stocks of the Day:

  GS 228.50 +2.55

  MS 68.90 +1.79

  TGT 67.57 +2.38

  CAT 80.33 +1.69

  BHP 79.52 +1.26

  BA 102.25 -2.25

  RIG 112.87 +0.53

  MDRX 25.94 -0.22

  NUE 58.04 +1.05

  RIO 33.56 +1.51

  Total So Far:  +54.56

  </span>From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +48.19

  From previous portfolio closed Thursday, August 11, 2007:  -24.97

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -13.3

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, April 23, 2007:  +72.5 annualized 25.1%

  From previous portfolio closed June, 2007 +72.9 annualized 15.2%
  Total +209.88, 24.5%; annualized: 31.8%

Stocks to Consider for Significant Movement per Day This Week:
  (consider buying now or the day before)

  NONE at this time; all cash for now.

Twelve Stocks to Consider for Long-Term Portfolio:

  Including price and their ranking on MSN Stock Scouter 1-10

  WHR (112.40), 7

  BDK (95.19), 8

  ATI (115.18), 6

  BGC (65.57), 9

  HON (57.79), 8

  ASD (57.02), 6

  JCI (109.91), 8

  MDR (70.65), 6

  FWLT (95.91), 6

 CAT (74.88), 7

 TEX (82.34), 9

 DE (120.00), 7

 Total:  999.05

 Now:  1007.42  0.08%


>>>Premium ProForecasts

% is accuracy yesterday;
Quote is yesterday's close;

  no * = inaccurate;
d = down (usually indicating stay in position);
s = sideways (usually within 0.5% indicating do nothing);
u = up (usually indicating stay in position)
(if capitalized, forecast has changed since last forecast, usually indicating a potential trade or close position)

PROFUTURES-Finance/Energy (86%)
  DJIA 14066.01 ** su

  SP500 1557.59 * su

  Nasdaq 2780.32 * su

  Note10yr 102-20 ** sd
  Gold 748.00 ** su
  Silver 13.49 ** su

  Copper 372.45 * u
  Oil 81.22 ** s

  HOil 222.35 ** su

  NGas 7.073 S

Example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-FE: DJ106a20S SP1195.70S NA1576S NT1112.9s GD423.5SD SL6.65sd
CP140.15sd OL48.28S HO134.38u NG60.80sd

PROFUTURES-Farm (80%)
Wheat 890.00 su
Corn 342.25 ** d
Soybeans 940.50 ** d
BeanOil 38.50 ** sd
Cotton 63.22 ** sd
Cattle 96.125 ** d
Hogs 60.30 d
Sugar 9.79 ** s
Coffee 137.00 ** u
Cocoa 1858 ** d

 

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-F: WH296.5sd CN196d SY513.5d BO28.88u CT46.71su CA91.12u HG75.57su
SG8.84sd CF104.4SU CC14.96d

PROFUTURES-Curriencies (100%):
  AustralianD .8945 ** u
  GBP 2.0391 ** u
  Canadian$ 1.0194 ** u
  Euro 1.4158 * SD

  Yen .8623 ** d
  Swiss .8538 ** s
  Real: .5518 * s
  Peso: .092150 ** s
  US$ 78.235 ** sd
  Yuan (to $): 0.0835 ** s

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-C: AUD75.33sd GBP18599d CAD81.79SD EUR130.4d JPY98.16su CHF84.16sd
RL.4615s PS.091050s USD83.46su

PROFUTURES-Forex (100%):
  AUD/USD: .8974 ** su

  GBP/JPY: 238.95 ** u
  GBP/USD: 2.0422 ** su
  EUR/GBP: .6921 ** SD
  EUR/JPY: 165.38 ** s
  EUR/CHF: 1.6655 ** S
  EUR/USD: 1.4134 ** s
  USD/CAD: .9806 ** sd
  USD/JPY: 117.01 ** s
  USD/CHF: 1.1784 ** s

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-X: A/U.7570sd C/Y223.51s G/U1.8650sd E/G.6759s E/Y133.46sd
E/F1.5434s E/U1.3023sd U/C1.2206s U/Y102.48s U/F1.1849su

 

>>>Results:

All documented and linked at www.proforecasts.com/results.htm
Futures: 2007: +473; 2006: +3855; total +4390

Futures (www.mocktrading.com): 

  2003-2006: 1020.6%

  2006: 219%

  2007: 56.7% (annualized 95.1%)
Stocks:  CBS MarketWatch (http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/): 

  2006:  53.21%

  2007:  2.19% (3.67% annualized)

Marketocracy (www.marketocracy.com):  average:  20.4% 
  Portfolio-Conservative:  2003-2007:  89.5%; annualized:  20.5%

  Portfolio-Aggressive:  2003-2007:  106.7%; annualized:  24.6%

  Portfolio-Speculative:  2003-2007:  78.6%; annualized:  18.1%

  Portfolio-2006-2007:  29.6%; annualized 18.5%

 

>>>Documentation:

The Yahoo group is the main group where the predictions have been listed since 2003 but the ProForecasts are also listed by 9:25amET at:
  ProForecasts site: http://www.proforecasts.com/today.htm
  BayStreet.com: http://www.baystreet.ca/forums/forum.cfm?FID=13
  Blogger: http://profutures.blogspot.com/
  Google-Groups: http://groups.google.com/group/propredictions/?msg=new
  MySpace: http://blog.myspace.com/propredict

  MSN:  http://groups.msn.com/ProForecasts/_whatsnew.msnw
  Topica:
  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredict/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626777

  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626980

 http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions1/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958627022 

 

>>>Sources We Summarize to Find Consensus:

  1. Investor's Business Daily Top 100
  2. Channeling Stocks
  3. Guerilla Trades
  4. Morningstar
  5. Zacks
  6. ValueLine
  7. Barron's ("Barron's Effect")
  8. CNBC ("CNBC Bounce")
  9. Mad Money
  10. Saturday Fox Business four shows (Bull & Bears, etc.)
  11. over 12 more investing newsletters
  12. over 24 more 'tips" sources

We read and listen to these respectable sources to obtain the stocks and investments that have great fundamentals, sector and technical analysis (why duplicate what these sources already do well), then use the summary and consensus of them to pick from for our intuitive analysis. If you have any other sources, you think we should be considering, please let us know.  Thanks!

 

>>>Market Timing Accuracy Requirement:

*1"one must be able to predict the market with at least 83% accuracy,
a predictive ability that would be extremely difficult for even the
best market timer to sustain...If one compares the market timer's
return to that of a portfolio of stocks and cash weighted to have the
same standard deviation as the market timer's portfolio, the result
is that the market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to
perform better than the passive portfolio of the same risk. So even
after adjusting for risk, a significant predictive ability still is
required." (William Sharpe, "Likely Gains from Market Timing",
MBA-Finance Dept). http://www.quickmba.com/finance/invest/timing/

 

>>>Example Portfolio:

  XOM 91.36 +0.44

  MHS 91.29 +1.68

  EPD 31.71 +0.71

  RIMM 113.37 +12.83

  FCX 110.66 +2.40

  COP 84.20 +0.26

  GOOG 594.05 +15.02

  T 42.14 +0.51

  DE 147.27 -0.34

  FWLT 141.24 +5.59

  Total so far:  +97.08

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +39.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, August 11, 2007:  -9.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -46.21  Total so far:  +80.87

 

>>>Subscriber Questions and Answers;

 

 

 

 

Friday, October 05, 2007 

PROFORECASTS 10/5/07 FRI (Premium with Subscriber and Free parts)

  Accuracy yesterday:  85.3%, UP +3418 in futures pips

  Best to Use ProForecats and Sample Portfolios:

     http://proforecasts.com/guide.htm

  To Be a Subscriber or Premium by 9amET:

    www.propredict.proforecasts.com/subscribe.htm

  To Receive the Free Weekly ProForecasts by Sunday:

    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ProPredictPredictions/

  Today's Featured Article:  http://www.investors.com/

 

Stocks of the Day, Example Portfolio, options and futures all beat the market averages except one (CBS MarketWatch).  Consider the list of ProStocks just emailed out and listed below as the Stocks of the Day for premium subscribers.  Check results right below as of this week we are still ahead of the markets.  I still predict the DJIA will be at 14250 by the end of the year.

 

With 5-10% in futures that would give a portfolio return of about 35-45% (way ahead of the market).  Shows that even with less than perfect predictions, you can make an above-average profit.  You only need to be accurate 76.5% to make a significant profit.  InvestorTools states, "80% of all mutual funds perform under the market."

 

Results as of Last Week:  (add 6.8% for 5% futures, 13.7% for 10% futures)

  UP 5.6%, 7.4% annualized in CBS MarketWatch!

    UP 8% SP500

    UP 12% DJIA

    UP 12% Nasdaq

  UP 12.7%, 16.9% annualized in SPY!

  UP 12.7%, 17.0% annualized in DIA!

  UP 16.8%, 22.3% annualized average in stock portfolios since 2003!

  (For all major funds the three year annualized return is from 3.49% to at best 20.89%.)

  UP 19.8%, 26.5% annualized in QQQQ!    

  UP 22.6%, 30.2% annualized for Stocks of the Day!

  UP 29.4%, 39.2% annualized in ProFunds!

  UP 102.7% (136.5% annualized) in futures (all yr-long funds stay same for long-term)!

  UP 118% annualized in Recommended Stocks in four days (1.9% in four days)! 

 

>>>Free ProForecasts:  World Markets Weekly!

  (Subscriber and Premium below if subscriber):

 

Weekly Market Forecasts and Last Week's Results:  64.3%

  Still practicing on world markets for now.

  US:
    DJIA (13895.63) week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    SP500 (1526.75): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    Nasdaq (2701.50): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    TNotes (103-03): this week flat/DOWN (accurate last week)
  Australia:  ASX 200 Index (6567.80) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  New Zealand:  NZX 50 FF Index (4268.90) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Japan:  NIKKEI Index (16,785.69) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  Hong Kong:  Hang Seng Index (27,142.47) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  China:  SHSE-SZSE300 Index (5580.81) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  Qatar:  DSM 20 Index (8102.04) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  India:   BSE SENSEX 30 (17,291.10) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)

  UK:  FTSE 400 (6466.80) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  Germany:  DAX (7861.51) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  France:  CAC 40 (5715.69) flat/UP (accurate last week)

 

>>>Subscriber ProForecasts:  ProFunds, Options, Stocks of the Day,

   Stocks per Day, LT Stocks! (Premium below if subscriber):

  UltraBull 79.91 -0.73

  Total so far:  +4.15

  From previous position:  +4.17

  From previous position:  -10.15

  From previous position:  +24.93, total so far:  +23.10; 29.4%; annualized 39.2%

Options:
  DIA:  139.61 -0.51

     Total so far:  +4.45 

     From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.87

     From previous positions:  +11.35, total so far:  +17.67; 12.7%; annualized 17.0%

  SPY:  153.78 -0.31

    Total so far:  +3.68

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +0.68

    From previous positions:  +14.95, total so far:  +19.31; 12.7%; annualized 16.9%

  QQQQ:  51.65 -0.36

    Total so far:  +2.19

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.41

    From previous positions:  +6.60, total so far:  +10.2; 19.8%; annualized 26.5%

Stocks of the Day:

  GS 227.35 -0.67

  MS 67.00 +0.90

  TGT 65.72 +0.40

  CAT 78.56 -1.08

  BHP 78.18 -1.62

  BA 104.72 -1.21

  RIG 111.35 -1.39

  MDRX 26.16 -1.19

  NUE 57.17 -1.67

  RIO 32.30 -3.15

  Total So Far:  +44.27

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +48.19

  From previous portfolio closed Thursday, August 11, 2007:  -24.97

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -13.3

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, April 23, 2007:  +72.5 annualized 25.1%

  From previous portfolio closed June, 2007 +72.9 annualized 15.2%
  Total +189.89, 22.6%; annualized: 30.2%

Stocks to Consider for Significant Movement per Day This Week:
  (consider buying now or the day before)

  NONE at this time; all cash for now.

Twelve Stocks to Consider for Long-Term Portfolio:

  Including price and their ranking on MSN Stock Scouter 1-10

  WHR (112.40), 7

  BDK (95.19), 8

  ATI (115.18), 6

  BGC (65.57), 9

  HON (57.79), 8

  ASD (57.02), 6

  JCI (109.91), 8

  MDR (70.65), 6

  FWLT (95.91), 6

 CAT (74.88), 7

 TEX (82.34), 9

 DE (120.00), 7

 Total:  999.05

 Now:  1007.42  0.08%


>>>Premium ProForecasts

% is accuracy yesterday;
Quote is yesterday's close;

  no * = inaccurate;
d = down (usually indicating stay in position);
s = sideways (usually within 0.5% indicating do nothing);
u = up (usually indicating stay in position)
(if capitalized, forecast has changed since last forecast, usually indicating a potential trade or close position)

PROFUTURES-Finance/Energy (71%)
  DJIA 13968.05 ** SU

  SP500 1539.09 ** SU

  Nasdaq 2729.43 * SU

  Note10yr 103-06 ** sd
  Gold 730.90 su
  Silver 13.27 * su

  Copper 374.90 ** u
  Oil 79.74 ** S

  HOil 217.87 * SU

  NGas 7.26 u

Example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-FE: DJ106a20S SP1195.70S NA1576S NT1112.9s GD423.5SD SL6.65sd
CP140.15sd OL48.28S HO134.38u NG60.80sd

PROFUTURES-Farm (56%)
Wheat 941.00 ** su
Corn 347.00 d
Soybeans 955.00 d
BeanOil 38.11 * SD
Cotton 63.43 ** sd
Cattle 97.40 ** d
Hogs 60.85 d
Sugar 9.84 S
Coffee 135.85 ** u
Cocoa 1876 ** d

 

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-F: WH296.5sd CN196d SY513.5d BO28.88u CT46.71su CA91.12u HG75.57su
SG8.84sd CF104.4SU CC14.96d

PROFUTURES-Curriencies (100%):
  AustralianD .8784 ** u
  GBP 2.0286 * u
  Canadian$ 1.0010 * u
  Euro 1.4115 * d

  Yen .8656 ** d
  Swiss .8519 ** s
  Real: .5419 ** s
  Peso: .091550 ** s
  US$ 78.56 * sd
  Yuan (to $): 0.0835 ** s

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-C: AUD75.33sd GBP18599d CAD81.79SD EUR130.4d JPY98.16su CHF84.16sd
RL.4615s PS.091050s USD83.46su

PROFUTURES-Forex (86%):
  AUD/USD: .8810 su

  GBP/JPY: 236.60 ** u
  GBP/USD: 2.0308 * su
  EUR/GBP: .6940 ** d
  EUR/JPY: 164.20 ** s
  EUR/CHF: 1.6629 ** sd
  EUR/USD: 1.4094 * s
  USD/CAD: .9996 * sd
  USD/JPY: 116.51 ** s
  USD/CHF: 1.1799 ** s

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-X: A/U.7570sd C/Y223.51s G/U1.8650sd E/G.6759s E/Y133.46sd
E/F1.5434s E/U1.3023sd U/C1.2206s U/Y102.48s U/F1.1849su

 

>>>Results:

All documented and linked at www.proforecasts.com/results.htm
Futures: 2007: +473; 2006: +3855; total +4390

Futures (www.mocktrading.com): 

  2003-2006: 1020.6%

  2006: 219%

  2007: 56.7% (annualized 95.1%)
Stocks:  CBS MarketWatch (http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/): 

  2006:  53.21%

  2007:  2.19% (3.67% annualized)

Marketocracy (www.marketocracy.com):  average:  20.4% 
  Portfolio-Conservative:  2003-2007:  89.5%; annualized:  20.5%

  Portfolio-Aggressive:  2003-2007:  106.7%; annualized:  24.6%

  Portfolio-Speculative:  2003-2007:  78.6%; annualized:  18.1%

  Portfolio-2006-2007:  29.6%; annualized 18.5%

 

>>>Documentation:

The Yahoo group is the main group where the predictions have been listed since 2003 but the ProForecasts are also listed by 9:25amET at:
  ProForecasts site: http://www.proforecasts.com/today.htm
  BayStreet.com: http://www.baystreet.ca/forums/forum.cfm?FID=13
  Blogger: http://profutures.blogspot.com/
  Google-Groups: http://groups.google.com/group/propredictions/?msg=new
  MySpace: http://blog.myspace.com/propredict

  MSN:  http://groups.msn.com/ProForecasts/_whatsnew.msnw
  Topica:
  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredict/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626777

  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626980

 http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions1/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958627022 

 

>>>Sources We Summarize to Find Consensus:

  1. Investor's Business Daily Top 100
  2. Channeling Stocks
  3. Guerilla Trades
  4. Morningstar
  5. Zacks
  6. ValueLine
  7. Barron's ("Barron's Effect")
  8. CNBC ("CNBC Bounce")
  9. Mad Money
  10. Saturday Fox Business four shows (Bull & Bears, etc.)
  11. over 12 more investing newsletters
  12. over 24 more 'tips" sources

We read and listen to these respectable sources to obtain the stocks and investments that have great fundamentals, sector and technical analysis (why duplicate what these sources already do well), then use the summary and consensus of them to pick from for our intuitive analysis. If you have any other sources, you think we should be considering, please let us know.  Thanks!

 

>>>Market Timing Accuracy Requirement:

*1"one must be able to predict the market with at least 83% accuracy,
a predictive ability that would be extremely difficult for even the
best market timer to sustain...If one compares the market timer's
return to that of a portfolio of stocks and cash weighted to have the
same standard deviation as the market timer's portfolio, the result
is that the market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to
perform better than the passive portfolio of the same risk. So even
after adjusting for risk, a significant predictive ability still is
required." (William Sharpe, "Likely Gains from Market Timing",
MBA-Finance Dept). http://www.quickmba.com/finance/invest/timing/

 

>>>Example Portfolio:

  XOM 91.33 -0.91

  MHS 91.22 +2.64

  EPD 30.39 -0.09

  RIMM 96.28 +0.02

  FCX 107.50 -1.65

  COP 84.06 -1.41

  GOOG 584.02 -0.37

  T 41.92 -0.49

  DE 145.01 -3.24

  FWLT 131.85 -2.14

  Total so far:  +57.98

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +39.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, August 11, 2007:  -9.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -46.21  Total so far:  +31.88

 

>>>Subscriber Questions and Answers;

 

 

 

 

Thursday, October 04, 2007 

PROFORECASTS 10/4/07 THU (Premium with Subscriber and Free parts)

  Accuracy yesterday:  78.3%, UP +3407 in futures pips

  Best to Use ProForecats and Sample Portfolios:

     http://proforecasts.com/guide.htm

  To Be a Subscriber or Premium by 9amET:

    www.propredict.proforecasts.com/subscribe.htm

  To Receive the Free Weekly ProForecasts by Sunday:

    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ProPredictPredictions/

  Today's Featured Article:  http://www.investors.com/

 

Stocks of the Day, Example Portfolio, options and futures all beat the market averages except one (CBS MarketWatch).  Consider the list of ProStocks just emailed out and listed below as the Stocks of the Day for premium subscribers.  Check results right below as of this week we are still ahead of the markets.  I still predict the DJIA will be at 14250 by the end of the year.

 

With 5-10% in futures that would give a portfolio return of about 35-45% (way ahead of the market).  Shows that even with less than perfect predictions, you can make an above-average profit.  You only need to be accurate 76.5% to make a significant profit.  InvestorTools states, "80% of all mutual funds perform under the market."

 

Results as of Last Week:  (add 6.8% for 5% futures, 13.7% for 10% futures)

  UP 5.6%, 7.4% annualized in CBS MarketWatch!

    UP 8% SP500

    UP 12% DJIA

    UP 12% Nasdaq

  UP 12.7%, 16.9% annualized in SPY!

  UP 12.7%, 17.0% annualized in DIA!

  UP 16.8%, 22.3% annualized average in stock portfolios since 2003!

  (For all major funds the three year annualized return is from 3.49% to at best 20.89%.)

  UP 19.8%, 26.5% annualized in QQQQ!    

  UP 22.6%, 30.2% annualized for Stocks of the Day!

  UP 29.4%, 39.2% annualized in ProFunds!

  UP 102.7% (136.5% annualized) in futures (all yr-long funds stay same for long-term)!

  UP 118% annualized in Recommended Stocks in four days (1.9% in four days)! 

 

>>>Free ProForecasts:  World Markets Weekly!

  (Subscriber and Premium below if subscriber):

 

Weekly Market Forecasts and Last Week's Results:  64.3%

  Still practicing on world markets for now.

  US:
    DJIA (13895.63) week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    SP500 (1526.75): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    Nasdaq (2701.50): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    TNotes (103-03): this week flat/DOWN (accurate last week)
  Australia:  ASX 200 Index (6567.80) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  New Zealand:  NZX 50 FF Index (4268.90) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Japan:  NIKKEI Index (16,785.69) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  Hong Kong:  Hang Seng Index (27,142.47) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  China:  SHSE-SZSE300 Index (5580.81) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  Qatar:  DSM 20 Index (8102.04) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  India:   BSE SENSEX 30 (17,291.10) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)

  UK:  FTSE 400 (6466.80) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  Germany:  DAX (7861.51) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  France:  CAC 40 (5715.69) flat/UP (accurate last week)

 

>>>Subscriber ProForecasts:  ProFunds, Options, Stocks of the Day,

   Stocks per Day, LT Stocks! (Premium below if subscriber):

  UltraBull 79.91 -0.73

  Total so far:  +4.15

  From previous position:  +4.17

  From previous position:  -10.15

  From previous position:  +24.93, total so far:  +23.10; 29.4%; annualized 39.2%

Options:
  DIA:  139.61 -0.51

     Total so far:  +4.45 

     From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.87

     From previous positions:  +11.35, total so far:  +17.67; 12.7%; annualized 17.0%

  SPY:  153.78 -0.31

    Total so far:  +3.68

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +0.68

    From previous positions:  +14.95, total so far:  +19.31; 12.7%; annualized 16.9%

  QQQQ:  51.65 -0.36

    Total so far:  +2.19

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.41

    From previous positions:  +6.60, total so far:  +10.2; 19.8%; annualized 26.5%

Stocks of the Day:

  GS 227.35 -0.67

  MS 67.00 +0.90

  TGT 65.72 +0.40

  CAT 78.56 -1.08

  BHP 78.18 -1.62

  BA 104.72 -1.21

  RIG 111.35 -1.39

  MDRX 26.16 -1.19

  NUE 57.17 -1.67

  RIO 32.30 -3.15

  Total So Far:  +44.27

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +48.19

  From previous portfolio closed Thursday, August 11, 2007:  -24.97

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -13.3

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, April 23, 2007:  +72.5 annualized 25.1%

  From previous portfolio closed June, 2007 +72.9 annualized 15.2%
  Total +189.89, 22.6%; annualized: 30.2%

Stocks to Consider for Significant Movement per Day This Week:
  (consider buying now or the day before)

  NONE at this time; all cash for now.

Twelve Stocks to Consider for Long-Term Portfolio:

  Including price and their ranking on MSN Stock Scouter 1-10

  WHR (112.40), 7

  BDK (95.19), 8

  ATI (115.18), 6

  BGC (65.57), 9

  HON (57.79), 8

  ASD (57.02), 6

  JCI (109.91), 8

  MDR (70.65), 6

  FWLT (95.91), 6

 CAT (74.88), 7

 TEX (82.34), 9

 DE (120.00), 7

 Total:  999.05

 Now:  1007.42  0.08%


>>>Premium ProForecasts

% is accuracy yesterday;
Quote is yesterday's close;

  no * = inaccurate;
d = down (usually indicating stay in position);
s = sideways (usually within 0.5% indicating do nothing);
u = up (usually indicating stay in position)
(if capitalized, forecast has changed since last forecast, usually indicating a potential trade or close position)

PROFUTURES-Finance/Energy (71%)
  DJIA 13968.05 ** S

  SP500 1539.09 ** S

  Nasdaq 2729.43 * S

  Note10yr 103-06 ** sd
  Gold 730.90 su
  Silver 13.27 * su

  Copper 374.90 ** u
  Oil 79.74 ** sd

  HOil 217.87 * d

  NGas 7.26 u

Example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-FE: DJ106a20S SP1195.70S NA1576S NT1112.9s GD423.5SD SL6.65sd
CP140.15sd OL48.28S HO134.38u NG60.80sd

PROFUTURES-Farm (56%)
Wheat 941.00 ** su
Corn 347.00 d
Soybeans 955.00 d
BeanOil 38.11 * d
Cotton 63.43 ** sd
Cattle 97.40 ** d
Hogs 60.85 d
Sugar 9.84 su
Coffee 135.85 ** u
Cocoa 1876 ** d

 

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-F: WH296.5sd CN196d SY513.5d BO28.88u CT46.71su CA91.12u HG75.57su
SG8.84sd CF104.4SU CC14.96d

PROFUTURES-Curriencies (100%):
  AustralianD .8784 ** u
  GBP 2.0286 * u
  Canadian$ 1.0010 * u
  Euro 1.4115 * D

  Yen .8656 ** D
  Swiss .8519 ** S
  Real: .5419 ** s
  Peso: .091550 ** s
  US$ 78.56 * SD
  Yuan (to $): 0.0835 ** s

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-C: AUD75.33sd GBP18599d CAD81.79SD EUR130.4d JPY98.16su CHF84.16sd
RL.4615s PS.091050s USD83.46su

PROFUTURES-Forex (86%):
  AUD/USD: .8810 SU

  GBP/JPY: 236.60 ** U
  GBP/USD: 2.0308 * SU
  EUR/GBP: .6940 ** D
  EUR/JPY: 164.20 ** S
  EUR/CHF: 1.6629 ** SD
  EUR/USD: 1.4094 * S
  USD/CAD: .9996 * SD
  USD/JPY: 116.51 ** s
  USD/CHF: 1.1799 ** S

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-X: A/U.7570sd C/Y223.51s G/U1.8650sd E/G.6759s E/Y133.46sd
E/F1.5434s E/U1.3023sd U/C1.2206s U/Y102.48s U/F1.1849su

 

>>>Results:

All documented and linked at www.proforecasts.com/results.htm
Futures: 2007: +473; 2006: +3855; total +4390

Futures (www.mocktrading.com): 

  2003-2006: 1020.6%

  2006: 219%

  2007: 56.7% (annualized 95.1%)
Stocks:  CBS MarketWatch (http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/): 

  2006:  53.21%

  2007:  2.19% (3.67% annualized)

Marketocracy (www.marketocracy.com):  average:  20.4% 
  Portfolio-Conservative:  2003-2007:  89.5%; annualized:  20.5%

  Portfolio-Aggressive:  2003-2007:  106.7%; annualized:  24.6%

  Portfolio-Speculative:  2003-2007:  78.6%; annualized:  18.1%

  Portfolio-2006-2007:  29.6%; annualized 18.5%

 

>>>Documentation:

The Yahoo group is the main group where the predictions have been listed since 2003 but the ProForecasts are also listed by 9:25amET at:
  ProForecasts site: http://www.proforecasts.com/today.htm
  BayStreet.com: http://www.baystreet.ca/forums/forum.cfm?FID=13
  Blogger: http://profutures.blogspot.com/
  Google-Groups: http://groups.google.com/group/propredictions/?msg=new
  MySpace: http://blog.myspace.com/propredict

  MSN:  http://groups.msn.com/ProForecasts/_whatsnew.msnw
  Topica:
  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredict/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626777

  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626980

 http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions1/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958627022 

 

>>>Sources We Summarize to Find Consensus:

  1. Investor's Business Daily Top 100
  2. Channeling Stocks
  3. Guerilla Trades
  4. Morningstar
  5. Zacks
  6. ValueLine
  7. Barron's ("Barron's Effect")
  8. CNBC ("CNBC Bounce")
  9. Mad Money
  10. Saturday Fox Business four shows (Bull & Bears, etc.)
  11. over 12 more investing newsletters
  12. over 24 more 'tips" sources

We read and listen to these respectable sources to obtain the stocks and investments that have great fundamentals, sector and technical analysis (why duplicate what these sources already do well), then use the summary and consensus of them to pick from for our intuitive analysis. If you have any other sources, you think we should be considering, please let us know.  Thanks!

 

>>>Market Timing Accuracy Requirement:

*1"one must be able to predict the market with at least 83% accuracy,
a predictive ability that would be extremely difficult for even the
best market timer to sustain...If one compares the market timer's
return to that of a portfolio of stocks and cash weighted to have the
same standard deviation as the market timer's portfolio, the result
is that the market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to
perform better than the passive portfolio of the same risk. So even
after adjusting for risk, a significant predictive ability still is
required." (William Sharpe, "Likely Gains from Market Timing",
MBA-Finance Dept). http://www.quickmba.com/finance/invest/timing/

 

>>>Example Portfolio:

  XOM 91.33 -0.91

  MHS 91.22 +2.64

  EPD 30.39 -0.09

  RIMM 96.28 +0.02

  FCX 107.50 -1.65

  COP 84.06 -1.41

  GOOG 584.02 -0.37

  T 41.92 -0.49

  DE 145.01 -3.24

  FWLT 131.85 -2.14

  Total so far:  +57.98

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +39.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, August 11, 2007:  -9.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -46.21  Total so far:  +31.88

 

>>>Subscriber Questions and Answers;

 

 

 

 

Wednesday, October 03, 2007 

PROFORECASTS 10/3/07 WED (Premium with Subscriber and Free parts)

  Accuracy yesterday:  71.5%, UP +3735 in futures pips

  Best to Use ProForecats and Sample Portfolios:

     http://proforecasts.com/guide.htm

  To Be a Subscriber or Premium by 9amET:

    www.propredict.proforecasts.com/subscribe.htm

  To Receive the Free Weekly ProForecasts by Sunday:

    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ProPredictPredictions/

  Today's Featured Article:  http://www.investors.com/

 

Stocks of the Day UP 2.1% and Example Portfolio UP 1.9%!  Stocks of the Day, Example Portfolio, options and futures all beat the market averages except one (CBS MarketWatch).  Consider the list of ProStocks just emailed out and listed below as the Stocks of the Day for premium subscribers.  Check results right below as of this week we are still ahead of the markets.  I still predict the DJIA will be at 14250 by the end of the year.

 

With 5-10% in futures that would give a portfolio return of about 35-45% (way ahead of the market).  Shows that even with less than perfect predictions, you can make an above-average profit.  You only need to be accurate 76.5% to make a significant profit.  InvestorTools states, "80% of all mutual funds perform under the market."

 

Results as of Last Week:  (add 6.8% for 5% futures, 13.7% for 10% futures)

  UP 5.6%, 7.4% annualized in CBS MarketWatch!

    UP 8% SP500

    UP 12% DJIA

    UP 12% Nasdaq

  UP 12.7%, 16.9% annualized in SPY!

  UP 12.7%, 17.0% annualized in DIA!

  UP 16.8%, 22.3% annualized average in stock portfolios since 2003!

  (For all major funds the three year annualized return is from 3.49% to at best 20.89%.)

  UP 19.8%, 26.5% annualized in QQQQ!    

  UP 22.6%, 30.2% annualized for Stocks of the Day!

  UP 29.4%, 39.2% annualized in ProFunds!

  UP 102.7% (136.5% annualized) in futures (all yr-long funds stay same for long-term)!

  UP 118% annualized in Recommended Stocks in four days (1.9% in four days)! 

 

>>>Free ProForecasts:  World Markets Weekly!

  (Subscriber and Premium below if subscriber):

 

Weekly Market Forecasts and Last Week's Results:  64.3%

  Still practicing on world markets for now.

  US:
    DJIA (13895.63) week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    SP500 (1526.75): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    Nasdaq (2701.50): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    TNotes (103-03): this week flat/DOWN (accurate last week)
  Australia:  ASX 200 Index (6567.80) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  New Zealand:  NZX 50 FF Index (4268.90) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Japan:  NIKKEI Index (16,785.69) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  Hong Kong:  Hang Seng Index (27,142.47) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  China:  SHSE-SZSE300 Index (5580.81) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  Qatar:  DSM 20 Index (8102.04) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  India:   BSE SENSEX 30 (17,291.10) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)

  UK:  FTSE 400 (6466.80) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  Germany:  DAX (7861.51) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  France:  CAC 40 (5715.69) flat/UP (accurate last week)

 

>>>Subscriber ProForecasts:  ProFunds, Options, Stocks of the Day,

   Stocks per Day, LT Stocks! (Premium below if subscriber):

  UltraBull 80.64 -0.08

  Total so far:  +4.15

  From previous position:  +4.17

  From previous position:  -10.15

  From previous position:  +24.93, total so far:  +23.10; 29.4%; annualized 39.2%

Options:
  DIA:  140.12 -0.48

     Total so far:  +4.45 

     From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.87

     From previous positions:  +11.35, total so far:  +17.67; 12.7%; annualized 17.0%

  SPY:  154.09 -0.21

    Total so far:  +3.68

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +0.68

    From previous positions:  +14.95, total so far:  +19.31; 12.7%; annualized 16.9%

  QQQQ:  52.01 +0.01

    Total so far:  +2.19

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.41

    From previous positions:  +6.60, total so far:  +10.2; 19.8%; annualized 26.5%

Stocks of the Day:

  GS 228.02 +5.04

  MS 66.10 +2.09

  TGT 65.32 +0.33

  CAT 79.64 +0.08

  BHP 79.80 -2.08

  BA 105.93 -0.72

  RIG 112.74 -1.47

  MDRX 27.35 -0.05

  NUE 58.84 +0.27

  RIO 35.45 -0.69

  Total So Far:  +54.95

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +48.19

  From previous portfolio closed Thursday, August 11, 2007:  -24.97

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -13.3

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, April 23, 2007:  +72.5 annualized 25.1%

  From previous portfolio closed June, 2007 +72.9 annualized 15.2%
  Total +189.89, 22.6%; annualized: 30.2%

Stocks to Consider for Significant Movement per Day This Week:
  (consider buying now or the day before)

  NONE at this time; all cash for now.

Twelve Stocks to Consider for Long-Term Portfolio:

  Including price and their ranking on MSN Stock Scouter 1-10

  WHR (112.40), 7

  BDK (95.19), 8

  ATI (115.18), 6

  BGC (65.57), 9

  HON (57.79), 8

  ASD (57.02), 6

  JCI (109.91), 8

  MDR (70.65), 6

  FWLT (95.91), 6

 CAT (74.88), 7

 TEX (82.34), 9

 DE (120.00), 7

 Total:  999.05

 Now:  1007.42  0.08%


>>>Premium ProForecasts

% is accuracy yesterday;
Quote is yesterday's close;

  no * = inaccurate;
d = down (usually indicating stay in position);
s = sideways (usually within 0.5% indicating do nothing);
u = up (usually indicating stay in position)
(if capitalized, forecast has changed since last forecast, usually indicating a potential trade or close position)

PROFUTURES-Finance/Energy (78%)
  DJIA 14047.31 ** su

  SP500 1546.63 ** su

  Nasdaq 2747.11 ** su

  Note10yr 103-14 ** sd
  Gold 740.20 SU
  Silver 13.47 SU

  Copper 372.70 ** u
  Oil 80.22 ** sd

  HOil 216.50 * D

  NGas 7.477 ** U

Example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-FE: DJ106a20S SP1195.70S NA1576S NT1112.9s GD423.5SD SL6.65sd
CP140.15sd OL48.28S HO134.38u NG60.80sd

PROFUTURES-Farm (22%)
Wheat 903.50 SU
Corn 344.00 D
Soybeans 932.25 D
BeanOil 38.03 D
Cotton 63.24 SD
Cattle 98.05 ** d
Hogs 59.725 d
Sugar 10.02 ** su
Coffee 134.30 * u
Cocoa 1917 ** D

 

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-F: WH296.5sd CN196d SY513.5d BO28.88u CT46.71su CA91.12u HG75.57su
SG8.84sd CF104.4SU CC14.96d

PROFUTURES-Curriencies (86%):
  AustralianD .8865 ** u
  GBP 2.0398 ** u
  Canadian$ 1.0053 * u
  Euro 1.4198 u

  Yen .8720 ** sd
  Swiss .8562 ** su
  Real: .5464 * s
  Peso: .091625 ** s
  US$ 78.12 * d
  Yuan (to $): 0.0835 ** s

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-C: AUD75.33sd GBP18599d CAD81.79SD EUR130.4d JPY98.16su CHF84.16sd
RL.4615s PS.091050s USD83.46su

PROFUTURES-Forex (100%):
  AUD/USD: .8890 ** u

  GBP/JPY: 236.39 ** su
  GBP/USD: 2.0430 ** u
  EUR/GBP: .6939 * s
  EUR/JPY: 164.03 ** su
  EUR/CHF: 1.6646 ** s
  EUR/USD: 1.4176 * u
  USD/CAD: .9952 * d
  USD/JPY: 115.71 ** s
  USD/CHF: 1.1742 ** sd

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-X: A/U.7570sd C/Y223.51s G/U1.8650sd E/G.6759s E/Y133.46sd
E/F1.5434s E/U1.3023sd U/C1.2206s U/Y102.48s U/F1.1849su

 

>>>Results:

All documented and linked at www.proforecasts.com/results.htm
Futures: 2007: +473; 2006: +3855; total +4390

Futures (www.mocktrading.com): 

  2003-2006: 1020.6%

  2006: 219%

  2007: 56.7% (annualized 95.1%)
Stocks:  CBS MarketWatch (http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/): 

  2006:  53.21%

  2007:  2.19% (3.67% annualized)

Marketocracy (www.marketocracy.com):  average:  20.4% 
  Portfolio-Conservative:  2003-2007:  89.5%; annualized:  20.5%

  Portfolio-Aggressive:  2003-2007:  106.7%; annualized:  24.6%

  Portfolio-Speculative:  2003-2007:  78.6%; annualized:  18.1%

  Portfolio-2006-2007:  29.6%; annualized 18.5%

 

>>>Documentation:

The Yahoo group is the main group where the predictions have been listed since 2003 but the ProForecasts are also listed by 9:25amET at:
  ProForecasts site: http://www.proforecasts.com/today.htm
  BayStreet.com: http://www.baystreet.ca/forums/forum.cfm?FID=13
  Blogger: http://profutures.blogspot.com/
  Google-Groups: http://groups.google.com/group/propredictions/?msg=new
  MySpace: http://blog.myspace.com/propredict

  MSN:  http://groups.msn.com/ProForecasts/_whatsnew.msnw
  Topica:
  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredict/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626777

  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626980

 http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions1/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958627022 

 

>>>Sources We Summarize to Find Consensus:

  1. Investor's Business Daily Top 100
  2. Channeling Stocks
  3. Guerilla Trades
  4. Morningstar
  5. Zacks
  6. ValueLine
  7. Barron's ("Barron's Effect")
  8. CNBC ("CNBC Bounce")
  9. Mad Money
  10. Saturday Fox Business four shows (Bull & Bears, etc.)
  11. over 12 more investing newsletters
  12. over 24 more 'tips" sources

We read and listen to these respectable sources to obtain the stocks and investments that have great fundamentals, sector and technical analysis (why duplicate what these sources already do well), then use the summary and consensus of them to pick from for our intuitive analysis. If you have any other sources, you think we should be considering, please let us know.  Thanks!

 

>>>Market Timing Accuracy Requirement:

*1"one must be able to predict the market with at least 83% accuracy,
a predictive ability that would be extremely difficult for even the
best market timer to sustain...If one compares the market timer's
return to that of a portfolio of stocks and cash weighted to have the
same standard deviation as the market timer's portfolio, the result
is that the market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to
perform better than the passive portfolio of the same risk. So even
after adjusting for risk, a significant predictive ability still is
required." (William Sharpe, "Likely Gains from Market Timing",
MBA-Finance Dept). http://www.quickmba.com/finance/invest/timing/

 

>>>Example Portfolio:

  XOM 92.24 -1.71

  MHS 88.58 +1.18

  EPD 30.48 -0.12

  RIMM 96.26 -2.40

  FCX 109.25 -2.03

  COP 85.47 -1.92

  GOOG 584.39 +1.84

  T 42.41 +0.18

  DE 148.25 -2.67

  FWLT 133.99 -1.24

  Total so far:  +65.62

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +39.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, August 11, 2007:  -9.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -46.21  Total so far:  +31.88

 

>>>Subscriber Questions and Answers;

 

 

 

 

Tuesday, October 02, 2007 

PROFORECASTS 10/2/07 TUE (Premium with Subscriber and Free parts)

  Accuracy yesterday:  64.5%, UP +3745 in futures pips

  Best to Use ProForecats and Sample Portfolios:

     http://proforecasts.com/guide.htm

  To Be a Subscriber or Premium by 9amET:

    www.propredict.proforecasts.com/subscribe.htm

  To Receive the Free Weekly ProForecasts by Sunday:

    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ProPredictPredictions/

  Today's Featured Article:  http://www.investors.com/

 

Stocks of the Day UP 2.1% and Example Portfolio UP 1.9%!  Stocks of the Day, Example Portfolio, options and futures all beat the market averages except one (CBS MarketWatch).  Consider the list of ProStocks just emailed out and listed below as the Stocks of the Day for premium subscribers.  Check results right below as of this week we are still ahead of the markets.  I still predict the DJIA will be at 14250 by the end of the year.

 

With 5-10% in futures that would give a portfolio return of about 35-45% (way ahead of the market).  Shows that even with less than perfect predictions, you can make an above-average profit.  You only need to be accurate 76.5% to make a significant profit.  InvestorTools states, "80% of all mutual funds perform under the market."

 

Results as of Last Week:  (add 6.8% for 5% futures, 13.7% for 10% futures)

  UP 5.6%, 7.4% annualized in CBS MarketWatch!

    UP 8% SP500

    UP 12% DJIA

    UP 12% Nasdaq

  UP 12.7%, 16.9% annualized in SPY!

  UP 12.7%, 17.0% annualized in DIA!

  UP 16.8%, 22.3% annualized average in stock portfolios since 2003!

  (For all major funds the three year annualized return is from 3.49% to at best 20.89%.)

  UP 19.8%, 26.5% annualized in QQQQ!    

  UP 22.6%, 30.2% annualized for Stocks of the Day!

  UP 29.4%, 39.2% annualized in ProFunds!

  UP 102.7% (136.5% annualized) in futures (all yr-long funds stay same for long-term)!

  UP 118% annualized in Recommended Stocks in four days (1.9% in four days)! 

 

>>>Free ProForecasts:  World Markets Weekly!

  (Subscriber and Premium below if subscriber):

 

Weekly Market Forecasts and Last Week's Results:  64.3%

  Still practicing on world markets for now.

  US:
    DJIA (13895.63) week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    SP500 (1526.75): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    Nasdaq (2701.50): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    TNotes (103-03): this week flat/DOWN (accurate last week)
  Australia:  ASX 200 Index (6567.80) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  New Zealand:  NZX 50 FF Index (4268.90) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Japan:  NIKKEI Index (16,785.69) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  Hong Kong:  Hang Seng Index (27,142.47) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  China:  SHSE-SZSE300 Index (5580.81) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  Qatar:  DSM 20 Index (8102.04) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  India:   BSE SENSEX 30 (17,291.10) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)

  UK:  FTSE 400 (6466.80) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  Germany:  DAX (7861.51) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  France:  CAC 40 (5715.69) flat/UP (accurate last week)

 

>>>Subscriber ProForecasts:  ProFunds, Options, Stocks of the Day,

   Stocks per Day, LT Stocks! (Premium below if subscriber):

  UltraBull 80.72 +2.03

  Total so far:  +4.15

  From previous position:  +4.17

  From previous position:  -10.15

  From previous position:  +24.93, total so far:  +23.10; 29.4%; annualized 39.2%

Options:
  DIA:  140.60 +1.69

     Total so far:  +4.45 

     From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.87

     From previous positions:  +11.35, total so far:  +17.67; 12.7%; annualized 17.0%

  SPY:  154.30 +1.72

    Total so far:  +3.68

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +0.68

    From previous positions:  +14.95, total so far:  +19.31; 12.7%; annualized 16.9%

  QQQQ:  52.00 +0.59

    Total so far:  +2.19

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.41

    From previous positions:  +6.60, total so far:  +10.2; 19.8%; annualized 26.5%

Stocks of the Day:

  GS 222.98 +6.24

  MS 64.01 +1.01

  TGT 64.99 +1.42

  CAT 79.56 +1.13

  BHP 81.88 +3.28

  BA 106.65 +1.66

  RIG 114.21 +1.16

  MDRX 27.40 +0.37

  NUE 58.57 -0.90

  RIO 36.14 +2.21

  Total So Far:  +52.15

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +48.19

  From previous portfolio closed Thursday, August 11, 2007:  -24.97

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -13.3

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, April 23, 2007:  +72.5 annualized 25.1%

  From previous portfolio closed June, 2007 +72.9 annualized 15.2%
  Total +189.89, 22.6%; annualized: 30.2%

Stocks to Consider for Significant Movement per Day This Week:
  (consider buying now or the day before)

  NONE at this time; all cash for now.

Twelve Stocks to Consider for Long-Term Portfolio:

  Including price and their ranking on MSN Stock Scouter 1-10

  WHR (112.40), 7

  BDK (95.19), 8

  ATI (115.18), 6

  BGC (65.57), 9

  HON (57.79), 8

  ASD (57.02), 6

  JCI (109.91), 8

  MDR (70.65), 6

  FWLT (95.91), 6

 CAT (74.88), 7

 TEX (82.34), 9

 DE (120.00), 7

 Total:  999.05

 Now:  1007.42  0.08%


>>>Premium ProForecasts

% is accuracy yesterday;
Quote is yesterday's close;

  no * = inaccurate;
d = down (usually indicating stay in position);
s = sideways (usually within 0.5% indicating do nothing);
u = up (usually indicating stay in position)
(if capitalized, forecast has changed since last forecast, usually indicating a potential trade or close position)

PROFUTURES-Finance/Energy (33%)
  DJIA 14087.55 * su

  SP500 1547.04 * su

  Nasdaq 2740.99 * su

  Note10yr 103-09 ** sd
  Gold 749.20 * u
  Silver 13.695 u

  Copper 367.80 ** u
  Oil 80.17 SD

  HOil 218.29 S

  NGas 7.08 SU

Example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-FE: DJ106a20S SP1195.70S NA1576S NT1112.9s GD423.5SD SL6.65sd
CP140.15sd OL48.28S HO134.38u NG60.80sd

PROFUTURES-Farm (50%)
Wheat 947.50 ** u
Corn 365.00 su
Soybeans 986.00 * u
BeanOil 39.05 SU
Cotton 65.11 ** S
Cattle 98.40 D
Hogs 59.25 ** d
Sugar 9.93 SU
Coffee 134.85 ** U
Cocoa 2030 * u

 

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-F: WH296.5sd CN196d SY513.5d BO28.88u CT46.71su CA91.12u HG75.57su
SG8.84sd CF104.4SU CC14.96d

PROFUTURES-Curriencies (75%):
  AustralianD .8848 * u
  GBP 2.0378 * u
  Canadian$ 1.0067 * u
  Euro 1.4237 * u

  Yen .8748 ** SD
  Swiss .8594 * SU
  Real: .5506 s
  Peso: .091750 ** s
  US$ 77.885 * d
  Yuan (to $): 0.0835 ** s

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-C: AUD75.33sd GBP18599d CAD81.79SD EUR130.4d JPY98.16su CHF84.16sd
RL.4615s PS.091050s USD83.46su

PROFUTURES-Forex (100%):
  AUD/USD: .8868 * u

  GBP/JPY: 235.48 ** su
  GBP/USD: 2.0412 * u
  EUR/GBP: .6995 ** s
  EUR/JPY: 164.02 ** su
  EUR/CHF: 1.6632 ** s
  EUR/USD: 1.4217 * u
  USD/CAD: .9942 * d
  USD/JPY: 115.37 ** S
  USD/CHF: 1.1698 * SD

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-X: A/U.7570sd C/Y223.51s G/U1.8650sd E/G.6759s E/Y133.46sd
E/F1.5434s E/U1.3023sd U/C1.2206s U/Y102.48s U/F1.1849su

 

>>>Results:

All documented and linked at www.proforecasts.com/results.htm
Futures: 2007: +473; 2006: +3855; total +4390

Futures (www.mocktrading.com): 

  2003-2006: 1020.6%

  2006: 219%

  2007: 56.7% (annualized 95.1%)
Stocks:  CBS MarketWatch (http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/): 

  2006:  53.21%

  2007:  2.19% (3.67% annualized)

Marketocracy (www.marketocracy.com):  average:  20.4% 
  Portfolio-Conservative:  2003-2007:  89.5%; annualized:  20.5%

  Portfolio-Aggressive:  2003-2007:  106.7%; annualized:  24.6%

  Portfolio-Speculative:  2003-2007:  78.6%; annualized:  18.1%

  Portfolio-2006-2007:  29.6%; annualized 18.5%

 

>>>Documentation:

The Yahoo group is the main group where the predictions have been listed since 2003 but the ProForecasts are also listed by 9:25amET at:
  ProForecasts site: http://www.proforecasts.com/today.htm
  BayStreet.com: http://www.baystreet.ca/forums/forum.cfm?FID=13
  Blogger: http://profutures.blogspot.com/
  Google-Groups: http://groups.google.com/group/propredictions/?msg=new
  MySpace: http://blog.myspace.com/propredict

  MSN:  http://groups.msn.com/ProForecasts/_whatsnew.msnw
  Topica:
  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredict/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626777

  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626980

 http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions1/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958627022 

 

>>>Sources We Summarize to Find Consensus:

  1. Investor's Business Daily Top 100
  2. Channeling Stocks
  3. Guerilla Trades
  4. Morningstar
  5. Zacks
  6. ValueLine
  7. Barron's ("Barron's Effect")
  8. CNBC ("CNBC Bounce")
  9. Mad Money
  10. Saturday Fox Business four shows (Bull & Bears, etc.)
  11. over 12 more investing newsletters
  12. over 24 more 'tips" sources

We read and listen to these respectable sources to obtain the stocks and investments that have great fundamentals, sector and technical analysis (why duplicate what these sources already do well), then use the summary and consensus of them to pick from for our intuitive analysis. If you have any other sources, you think we should be considering, please let us know.  Thanks!

 

>>>Market Timing Accuracy Requirement:

*1"one must be able to predict the market with at least 83% accuracy,
a predictive ability that would be extremely difficult for even the
best market timer to sustain...If one compares the market timer's
return to that of a portfolio of stocks and cash weighted to have the
same standard deviation as the market timer's portfolio, the result
is that the market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to
perform better than the passive portfolio of the same risk. So even
after adjusting for risk, a significant predictive ability still is
required." (William Sharpe, "Likely Gains from Market Timing",
MBA-Finance Dept). http://www.quickmba.com/finance/invest/timing/

 

>>>Example Portfolio:

  XOM 93.95 +1.39

  MHS 87.40 -2.99

  EPD 30.60 +0.35

  RIMM 98.66 +0.11

  FCX 111.18 +6.29

  COP 87.39 -0.38

  GOOG 582.55 +15.28

  T 42.23 -0.08

  DE 150.92 +2.50

  FWLT 135.23 +3.95

  Total so far:  +74.51

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +39.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, August 11, 2007:  -9.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -46.21  Total so far:  +31.88

 

>>>Subscriber Questions and Answers;

 

 

 

 

Monday, October 01, 2007 

PROFORECASTS 10/1/07 MON (Premium with Subscriber and Free parts)

  Accuracy yesterday:  85.5%, UP +3946 in futures pips

  Best to Use ProForecats and Sample Portfolios:

     http://proforecasts.com/guide.htm

  To Be a Subscriber or Premium by 9amET:

    www.propredict.proforecasts.com/subscribe.htm

  To Receive the Free Weekly ProForecasts by Sunday:

    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ProPredictPredictions/

  Today's Featured Article:  http://www.investors.com/

 

Stocks of the Day, Example Portfolio, options and futures all beat the market averages except one (CBS MarketWatch).  Consider the list of ProStocks just emailed out and listed below as the Stocks of the Day for premium subscribers.  Check results right below as of this week we are still ahead of the markets.  I still predict the DJIA will be at 14250 by the end of the year.

 

With 5-10% in futures that would give a portfolio return of about 35-45% (way ahead of the market).  Shows that even with less than perfect predictions, you can make an above-average profit.  You only need to be accurate 76.5% to make a significant profit.  InvestorTools states, "80% of all mutual funds perform under the market."

 

Results as of Last Week:  (add 6.8% for 5% futures, 13.7% for 10% futures)

  UP 5.6%, 7.4% annualized in CBS MarketWatch!

    UP 8% SP500

    UP 12% DJIA

    UP 12% Nasdaq

  UP 12.7%, 16.9% annualized in SPY!

  UP 12.7%, 17.0% annualized in DIA!

  UP 16.8%, 22.3% annualized average in stock portfolios since 2003!

  (For all major funds the three year annualized return is from 3.49% to at best 20.89%.)

  UP 19.8%, 26.5% annualized in QQQQ!    

  UP 22.6%, 30.2% annualized for Stocks of the Day!

  UP 29.4%, 39.2% annualized in ProFunds!

  UP 102.7% (136.5% annualized) in futures (all yr-long funds stay same for long-term)!

  UP 118% annualized in Recommended Stocks in four days (1.9% in four days)! 

 

>>>Free ProForecasts:  World Markets Weekly!

  (Subscriber and Premium below if subscriber):

 

Weekly Market Forecasts and Last Week's Results:  64.3%

  Still practicing on world markets for now.

  US:
    DJIA (13895.63) week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    SP500 (1526.75): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    Nasdaq (2701.50): this week flat/UP (accurate last week)
    TNotes (103-03): this week flat/DOWN (accurate last week)
  Australia:  ASX 200 Index (6567.80) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  New Zealand:  NZX 50 FF Index (4268.90) flat/UP (accurate last week)
  Japan:  NIKKEI Index (16,785.69) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  Hong Kong:  Hang Seng Index (27,142.47) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  China:  SHSE-SZSE300 Index (5580.81) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)
  Qatar:  DSM 20 Index (8102.04) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  India:   BSE SENSEX 30 (17,291.10) flat/UP (inaccurate last week)

  UK:  FTSE 400 (6466.80) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  Germany:  DAX (7861.51) flat/UP (accurate last week)

  France:  CAC 40 (5715.69) flat/UP (accurate last week)

 

>>>Subscriber ProForecasts:  ProFunds, Options, Stocks of the Day,

   Stocks per Day, LT Stocks! (Premium below if subscriber):

  UltraBull 78.69 -0.48

  Total so far:  +4.15

  From previous position:  +4.17

  From previous position:  -10.15

  From previous position:  +24.93, total so far:  +23.10; 29.4%; annualized 39.2%

Options:
  DIA:  138.91 -0.22

     Total so far:  +4.45 

     From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.87

     From previous positions:  +11.35, total so far:  +17.67; 12.7%; annualized 17.0%

  SPY:  152.58 -0.51

    Total so far:  +3.68

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +0.68

    From previous positions:  +14.95, total so far:  +19.31; 12.7%; annualized 16.9%

  QQQQ:  51.41 -0.17

    Total so far:  +2.19

    From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +1.41

    From previous positions:  +6.60, total so far:  +10.2; 19.8%; annualized 26.5%

Stocks of the Day:

  GS 216.74 -0.04

  MS 63.00 -1.55

  TGT 63.57 +1.87

  CAT 78.43 +0.96

  BHP 78.60 +0.95

  BA 104.99 -0.47

  RIG 113.05 -0.76

  MDRX 27.03 -0.44

  NUE 59.47 -1.07

  RIO 33.93 -0.05

  Total So Far:  +34.57

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +48.19

  From previous portfolio closed Thursday, August 11, 2007:  -24.97

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -13.3

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, April 23, 2007:  +72.5 annualized 25.1%

  From previous portfolio closed June, 2007 +72.9 annualized 15.2%
  Total +189.89, 22.6%; annualized: 30.2%

Stocks to Consider for Significant Movement per Day This Week:
  (consider buying now or the day before)

  NONE at this time; all cash for now.

Twelve Stocks to Consider for Long-Term Portfolio:

  Including price and their ranking on MSN Stock Scouter 1-10

  WHR (112.40), 7

  BDK (95.19), 8

  ATI (115.18), 6

  BGC (65.57), 9

  HON (57.79), 8

  ASD (57.02), 6

  JCI (109.91), 8

  MDR (70.65), 6

  FWLT (95.91), 6

 CAT (74.88), 7

 TEX (82.34), 9

 DE (120.00), 7

 Total:  999.05

 Now:  1007.42  0.08%


>>>Premium ProForecasts

% is accuracy yesterday;
Quote is yesterday's close;

  no * = inaccurate;
d = down (usually indicating stay in position);
s = sideways (usually within 0.5% indicating do nothing);
u = up (usually indicating stay in position)
(if capitalized, forecast has changed since last forecast, usually indicating a potential trade or close position)

PROFUTURES-Finance/Energy (75%)
  DJIA 13895.63 ** SU

  SP500 1526.75 ** SU

  Nasdaq 2701.50 ** SU

  Note10yr 103-03 ** sd
  Gold 750.00 ** u
  Silver 13.92 ** u

  Copper 364.00 * u
  Oil 81.66 u

  HOil 222.56 SU

  NGas 6.87 * S

Example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-FE: DJ106a20S SP1195.70S NA1576S NT1112.9s GD423.5SD SL6.65sd
CP140.15sd OL48.28S HO134.38u NG60.80sd

PROFUTURES-Farm (67%)
Wheat 939.00 ** u
Corn 373.00 SU
Soybeans 991.25 u
BeanOil 39.49 * u
Cotton 64.89 u
Cattle 99.80 ** su
Hogs 62.25 ** d
Sugar 10.15 ** u
Coffee 128.65 ** su
Cocoa 2036 ** u

 

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-F: WH296.5sd CN196d SY513.5d BO28.88u CT46.71su CA91.12u HG75.57su
SG8.84sd CF104.4SU CC14.96d

PROFUTURES-Curriencies (100%):
  AustralianD .8857 ** u
  GBP 2.0419 ** U
  Canadian$ 1.0072 ** u
  Euro 1.4293 ** u

  Yen .8797 ** s
  Swiss .8645 * u
  Real: .5431 ** s
  Peso: .091325 ** s
  US$ 77.625 ** d
  Yuan (to $): 0.0835 ** s

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-C: AUD75.33sd GBP18599d CAD81.79SD EUR130.4d JPY98.16su CHF84.16sd
RL.4615s PS.091050s USD83.46su

PROFUTURES-Forex (100%):
  AUD/USD: .8879 ** u

  GBP/JPY: 235.02 * SU
  GBP/USD: 2.0472 ** U
  EUR/GBP: .6969 ** s
  EUR/JPY: 163.79 ** su
  EUR/CHF: 1.6607 ** s
  EUR/USD: 1.4268 ** u
  USD/CAD: .9924 ** d
  USD/JPY: 114.80 ** sd
  USD/CHF: 1.1640 ** d

example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-X: A/U.7570sd C/Y223.51s G/U1.8650sd E/G.6759s E/Y133.46sd
E/F1.5434s E/U1.3023sd U/C1.2206s U/Y102.48s U/F1.1849su

 

>>>Results:

All documented and linked at www.proforecasts.com/results.htm
Futures: 2007: +473; 2006: +3855; total +4390

Futures (www.mocktrading.com): 

  2003-2006: 1020.6%

  2006: 219%

  2007: 56.7% (annualized 95.1%)
Stocks:  CBS MarketWatch (http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/): 

  2006:  53.21%

  2007:  2.19% (3.67% annualized)

Marketocracy (www.marketocracy.com):  average:  20.4% 
  Portfolio-Conservative:  2003-2007:  89.5%; annualized:  20.5%

  Portfolio-Aggressive:  2003-2007:  106.7%; annualized:  24.6%

  Portfolio-Speculative:  2003-2007:  78.6%; annualized:  18.1%

  Portfolio-2006-2007:  29.6%; annualized 18.5%

 

>>>Documentation:

The Yahoo group is the main group where the predictions have been listed since 2003 but the ProForecasts are also listed by 9:25amET at:
  ProForecasts site: http://www.proforecasts.com/today.htm
  BayStreet.com: http://www.baystreet.ca/forums/forum.cfm?FID=13
  Blogger: http://profutures.blogspot.com/
  Google-Groups: http://groups.google.com/group/propredictions/?msg=new
  MySpace: http://blog.myspace.com/propredict

  MSN:  http://groups.msn.com/ProForecasts/_whatsnew.msnw
  Topica:
  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredict/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626777

  http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626980

 http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions1/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958627022 

 

>>>Sources We Summarize to Find Consensus:

  1. Investor's Business Daily Top 100
  2. Channeling Stocks
  3. Guerilla Trades
  4. Morningstar
  5. ZacksValueLine
  6. Barron's ("Barron's Effect")
  7. CNBC ("CNBC Bounce")
  8. Mad Money
  9. Saturday Fox Business four shows (Bull & Bears, etc.)
  10. over 12 more investing newsletters
  11. over 24 more 'tips" sources

We read and listen to these respectable sources to obtain the stocks and investments that have great fundamentals, sector and technical analysis (why duplicate what these sources already do well), then use the summary and consensus of them to pick from for our intuitive analysis. If you have any other sources, you think we should be considering, please let us know.  Thanks!

 

>>>Market Timing Accuracy Requirement:

*1"one must be able to predict the market with at least 83% accuracy,
a predictive ability that would be extremely difficult for even the
best market timer to sustain...If one compares the market timer's
return to that of a portfolio of stocks and cash weighted to have the
same standard deviation as the market timer's portfolio, the result
is that the market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to
perform better than the passive portfolio of the same risk. So even
after adjusting for risk, a significant predictive ability still is
required." (William Sharpe, "Likely Gains from Market Timing",
MBA-Finance Dept). http://www.quickmba.com/finance/invest/timing/

 

>>>Example Portfolio:

  XOM 92.56 -0.41

  MHS 90.39 +0.39

  EPD 30.25 -0.04

  RIMM 98.55 -1.31

  FCX 104.89 -1.91

  COP 87.77 -0.19

  GOOG 567.27 -0.23

  T 42.31 -0.52

  DE 148.42 +1.03

  FWLT 131.28 +2.22

  Total so far:  +48.09

  From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007:  +39.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, August 11, 2007:  -9.81

  From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007:  -46.21  Total so far:  +31.88

 

>>>Subscriber Questions and Answers;