Well, that was a big disappoinment.  Let's move on.

Three decisions have already been made and will determine how the Tigers move through the winter.
1) Brandon Inge will be the starting 3B.  As much as a catcher is needed Inge is best used at third.  His defense is extraordinary and he hits slightly better than when he is catching.  This leaves a gaping hole at catcher.
2) So long Edgar Renteria.  The Tigers will not pick up the $11M option on Renteria for '09.  Instead exercising a buyout of $3M to be paid by Boston (who originally drew up the contract).  This leaves a hole at shortstop.
3) Carlos Guillen will be the starting LF.  They have to keep his bat in the lineup and with Sheffielf at DH for one more year that means the place he hurts you the least defensively is the outfield.  His lack of range will not be as much of an issue out there and his knees will not take quite as much of a beating.  He seems very receptive to playing his fourth different position in three seasons.  This has implications for several reserve players.

Players Leaving:
--Kenny Rogers - After a stellar '06 campaign his age has caught up to him the last couple of years.  Hopefully somebody will sign him to earn us a compensatory draft pick.
--Todd Jones - For all the haters out there he is the best closer Detroit has ever had.  He retires as the Tiger's all-time save leader as well as a great team mate and a great person.  He never passed the blame when he blew a save, and often took the fall for blunders behind him.  I wish him the best in retirement.
--Vance Wilson - After re-injuring his elbow while rehabbing it looks like he may call it a career.  Too bad, he was talented enough to start on a lot of teams including the '09 Tigers.
--Kyle Farnsworth - He wouldn't sign here after '05 so why would he do it now?  Adios, you pile of crap.  Thanks for the draft picks.

Contract Issues:
--Justin Verlander - He has the option to opt out of the final year of his contract and go for arbitration but he may be foolish to do so considering the year he just had.  Regardless the Tigers need make re-signing him this winter a priority.  He still has ace stuff and he will bounce back and want ace dollars.  Buy now while the price is right.
--Placido Polanco - His contract expires after '09.  There is some thought that he may be trade bait next summer as prospects like Scott Sizemore and Cale Iorg climb toward the majors.  I believe Polanco is an extremely underrated ballplayer and should be re-signed if this team wants to stay relevant.

Arbitration Eligible Players:
--Ramon Santiago - With the hole at short the Tigers must pick him up.  I would not be disappointed in any way if he were the everyday SS next year.  I know they will look for something more and he makes a great backup infielder, but he is a switch hitting contact hitter with great speed and gold-glove defense.  May be a much better option than the trade or free-agent markets.
--Marcus Thames - With the move of Guillen to LF and the emergence of the left handed Matt Joyce and Clete Thomas the Tigers may not need the services of another right handed slugger.  His power is great but streaky.  I imagine he will be let go, get a full-time gig in somewhere like Oakland and hit 40 HR next year.  Typical Tiger luck.
-- Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya, Aquilino Lopez, Bobby Seay - These guys all fit in the same group as the most reliable (use that term loosely) bullpen guys.  Rodney and Zumaya will compete for the closer job, Seay will be the lefty specialist and Lopez will be in long relief.  This could change if the Tigers make some moves to add to the pen or if starters like Nate Robertson or Zach Miner get moved to the pen.
--Gary Glover - Don't see the Tigers tendering him as he was a desperation mid-season add-on.

Holes to fill:
1) Shortstop - Ramon Santiago would be my choice.  He provides a good ball player at the least expense to the club.  Other options include J.J. Hardy, Michael Young and Jack Wilson on the trade market, but all of those teams want pitching in return.  The free-agent market is highlighted by Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal and Cesar Izturis.  All of these guys have some baggage.  With Santiago and Inge on the left side full-time the infield defense will do wonders to improve the pitching.
2) Catcher - This is a real tough one.  Dusty Ryan is the best prospect but is clearly not ready to be a full-time catcher, and I would have questions about him being a back-up at the major league level next year.  The free-agent market is extremely thin at catcher so expect the Tigers to look to trade here (another reason Santiago should end up at SS).  The Rangers have a catching surplus and would be likely to trade 29 year-old Gerald Laird for moderate pitching help.
3) Starting Pitching - Verlander, Galarraga and Bonderman (if healthy) are locks for the rotation.  Robertson has lost his slider and until he finds it, he can't pitch, end of story.  I think Miner has proven he is far more effective as a starter.  Although, the Tigers staff has some infatuation with him being a reliever.  Hopefully they come to their senses.  After that are guys like Willis, Vasquez, Lambert and Bonine.  Not a great group really.  Look for Rick Porcello to get a call-up at some point during the season.  He dominated at Class-A Lakeland and was named Baseball America's top prospect in the Florida State League.  The free-agent market is very deep here.  Expect the Tigers to look towards the many quality second-tier players and let the Eastern Division blow their wads on CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets and A.J. Burnett.
4) Bullpen - Not a lot of help here.  Hopefully Zumaya can stay healthy and find his curveball.  Hopefully Rodney can learn to locate his changeup again.  And hopefully the whole league can get into a bidding war over Francisco Rodriguez and the Tigers can snake a couple of the really good relievers on the market this year.  Expect '08 top draft pick Ryan Perry to be involved in bullpen discussions.

It would not be a bad time to spend as this is a very deep free-agent class.  Also the Tigers are looking at several big contracts expiring in the next two years.  Contracts expiring after next year include Sheffield ($14M) and Polanco ($4.6M).  After '10 the Tigers will lose the contracts of Inge ($12.9M over two years), Robertson ($17M over two years) and Willis ($22M over two years).  And all this talk of trading Ordonez is nuts.  He is one of the best hitters in the game, a great table setter for Cabrera in the lineup, and has a contract that is not very trade friendly.

Here is the 25 guys I expect to see on Opening Day based on the current roster.  A star (*) denotes positions where some work is needed.

Lineup
CF Curtis Granderson (L)
2B Placido Polanco (R)
LF Carlos Guillen (S)
RF Magglio Ordonez (R)
1B Miguel Cabrera (R)
SS Ramon Santiago (S)
DH Gary Sheffield (R) *
C Dusty Ryan (R) *
3B Brandon Inge (R)
Bench
C Dane Sardinha (R), 3B/2B/OF Ryan Raburn (R), 2B/SS Mike Hollimon (S), OF Matt Joyce (L)

Rotation
Justin Verlander (R)
Armando Galarraga (R)
Jeremy Bonderman (R)
Zach Miner (R)
Dontrelle Willis (L) *
Bullpen
Fernando Rodney (R), Joel Zumaya (R), Bobby Seay (L), Aquilino Lopez (R) *, Freddy Dolsi (R) *, Casey Fossum (L) *, Nate Robertson (L)

 

In Leyland We Trust,
-Big Red

How's this for a role reversal:

A 7-6 first season for Mark Dantonio at Michigan State increases expectations for his second year. Fans expect improvement upon last year's gains and some people are talking MSU as a potential sleeper in the Big Ten.

Rich Rodriguez in his first year at Michigan comes in much heralded, but with low expectations this year, despite the requisite impatience from UM fans, and some people are talking UM as a potential disaster.

It was the best of times. It was the even better times. It is college football season.

Some people make bold preseason predictions. Most of these mediatypes are doing it to sell papers or web-advertisements and of course get attention. I'm not. I'm not sure who reads this blog in MyspaceLand. So, with little fanfare I present:

Jordan's "Too Reasonable to be Exciting" Predictions*

1) The SEC will be good, but not quite as good as the hype would suggest.
2) The Big Ten will be bad, but not as bad as the hype would suggest.
3) Javon Ringer either leads the Big Ten in rushing TDs or gets injured.
4) Michigan has a freshman skill position player that steps up big.
5) Michigan State has a year similar to their last, some improvement, but is not a dark horse in the Big Ten Race.
6) Michigan has a year similar to their last, though a bit worse, but is not a total disaster.
7) Georgia does not end the season ranked number 1.
8) Joel complains about the smurf turf at Boise State.
9) Penn State vs. Wisconsin on 10/11 will determine second place in the Big Ten.
10) Appalachian State stays competitive with LSU for precisely two quarters before LSU thumps them – ending UM fans hopes that someone could possibly fuck up worse than they did last year.
11) I hate Notre Dame.

*Also, pretty damn vague.


If – Come Predictions:

If MSU beats Cal, Spartan fans will predict stratospheric success . . . that ultimately will not come . . . but a New Year's Day Bowl is in order.
If UM wins 9 games or more, Rich Rodriguez will get likely undeserved first-season-Charlie-Weiss-like Worship from ESPN.
If Notre Dame goes less than 7-5, Weiss will officially and very seriously start getting heat.
If OSU loses to USC, people will bag on the Big Ten until bowl season . . . at which point they will bag on our Fair Eleven some more.


MOST OVERRATED STAT: Please, if you think MSU will be good, let's give legitimate reasons: senior quarterback, Javon Ringer, the right coach, etc, etc. Let's stop with this "they lost a bunch of games last year by seven points or less." That's such a bullshit line. Unless someone can show me how several close losses one year are an indicator of a team's success the next year, I think this is garbage analysis.


Real Predictions:

Michigan State: Last year, I predicted 6-6 and dared not say 7-5. This was close. This year I'll say 7-5 and dare not say 8-4.

Michigan fans will get too excited if they beat Utah and there are a few cool looking plays. They will get too depressed if they lose and the offense looks like Utica High School's offense. OH SNAP! TAKE THAT UTICA! GO STEVENSON TITAN FOOTBALL!
I predict 8-4.

Ohio State: The class of the Big Ten – Surprise! USC football fans are not real fans; they just play them on TV. This makes the Coliseum not much of a home field advantage. OSU takes it to USC on the road, but loses at Wisconsin. 11-1.

Notre Dame: Hey guy at the Vegas Sports Book, ND will not will 10 games, dawg. 6-6.


Jordan "Changeup" Pomaville


Hey everyone, Joel is officially back.  I know, I know, I've completely neglected the site, but it's football season again, so here I am!  I'm just gonna tack on to Jordan's predictions with a couple things of my own.

1. Jordan and I have a bet that IF the Spartans win nine or more games, Javon Ringer will win the Heisman trophy.  I'm guessing we push, but should be fun to watch.

2. Michigan State responded to Michigan's state of flux by dominating in state recruiting and putting together a class that was rated as the 7th best in the country.  This is a big deal.  Odds are, MSU won't be able to keep this up once DickRod starts to settle in, but it's significant that Dantonio didn't fumble this opportunity.  If he can make some noise with this class, there's a real chance that MSU can finally get the program to the point where they're living up to their potential.

3. The future APPEARS to be sunny for Michigan State for the first time in a LONG time.  They just opened what is purported to be a jaw dropping new addition to the Duffy Dougherty facility.  They just turned in what should be the best recruiting class the school has seen in decades.  Michigan is in the worst place it has been in in decades.  So this is a big season for Dantonio.  If he can win seven and get back in a bowl game, it'll mean he's continued to build.  If he can win eight or nine and make the Big Ten race interesting, it could mean that Dantonio really IS the messiah East Lansing has been praying for.  If he misses a bowl game we're going to hear the entire midwest simultaneously break into the refrain of "Same ole Spartans."  Personally, I wanna see them play good football.  That's all I've ever wanted.  As for Jordan's dismissal of close losses, I'd say you have to take a qualitative approach.  If they played a good, hard game and narrowly lost to a better team, that does mean something.  My prediction: 8-4.  There, I said it.  Cal is EVERYTHING though.  Win that and it sets the tone for the whole season.

4. I am positively interested to see how DickRod's tenure at Michigan goes.  Obviously, I really hope it goes poorly.  A part of me is dreaming about DickRod falling on his face, his vaunted spread offense failing in the rigors of outdoor games in Wisconsin and Michigan in October and November, and the Michigan football program falling apart while Michigan State returns to a form reminiscent of the 1960s.  Note, I said dreaming, but that's the best case scenario.  It appeals to me both as a Spartan fan (seeing Michigan suck), and as a football fan (seeing the fruity spread offense proven that it's not all it's cracked up to be).  Alternatively, I have nightmares of DickRod being the coach who could do what Carr and Bo couldn't and turn Michigan into a legitimate national powerhouse in reality and not just the minds of their fans while his spread offense proves that the Big Ten's style of football is out-dated and passe.  -shudder-  The truth, no doubt, will fall somewhere in the middle.  I really doubt Michigan will cease to be one of the top three schools in the conference.  Maybe they'll get passed by Wisconsin, but not Illinois or Michigan State.  Dantonio will likely make in-state recruiting more competitive, but most likely will still play second fiddle.  DickRod's offense will likely have to adjust for Big Ten football, but will still prove to be effective.  This of course, is all about the future.  THIS season?  I think Michigan's in trouble.  New offense, wrong athletes to run it, no QB.  I'm predicting 7-5 with losses to Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State at home.  Some fans will, prematurely, call for DickRod's head.  Same idiots who hated Lloyd Carr.

5. Ohio State is going back to the National Title game.  There, I said it.  That will make four trips in six years, but this is a really good team.  The game against USC is gonna define it, but I'm watching their first game while I write this and they're a damn good team.  Terrell Pryor looks GOOD.  Granted, it's against Youngstown State, but he should provide an excellent change of pace all season.  They're returning a senior QB, Beanie Wells is an excellent running back, and that defense is exquisite.  If they beat USC, the only team on their schedule I can see giving them trouble is Wisconsin.  They should go 11-1, if not 12-0, and squeak in over an SEC team that deserves it more.  This time, though, I'd say they might actually have the talent to win it all.  If I had to pick a national champion right now, it would be Ohio State.

6. Watch Wisconsin this year.  This is a program that is consistently underrated and continues to be on the rise.  They have become the good version of what Michigan used to be, but they actually win bowl games.  P.J. Hill could light up the Big Ten and I think they're playing on New Years Day this year.  This is a program that is about to cement itself as the 2 program in the Big Ten and a regular player on the national scene.

7. I think this is the year the Big Ten starts to turn things around.  Everyone keeps yelling about OSU losing two years in a row in the title game, but that's ignoring the fact that they've been to three of the last five title games and won one.  MSU and Illinois are both starting to show real progress, Wisconsin is, as I said before, beginning to prove that they're all that, and Michigan is ushering in a new era that could go a lot of ways.  Indiana, Minnesota, and Purdue are question marks, but if they continue to make progress, we could be looking at a conference that ends all of this ridiculous talk about the Pac Ten being better.  My guess?  SEC is the best conference this year, BIG 12 will easily be second, but I think the Big Ten will establish itself as the 3 with a bullet, especially if MSU beats Cal and OSU beats USC.  The national media will really start to notice then.

So there you have it.  Will Michigan State live up to the sky high aspirations of their fans?  Can DickRod squeeze seven wins out of this year's team and start building for the future?  Can Tressel continue an incredible run and get ANOTHER shot at a title?  Will Wisonsin prove that it deserves to get as much attention as the Buckeyes and Wolverines?  This could be a VERY interesting season.

RS,
JPA

This is shaping up to be a fantastic September run to the playoffs.  With only one division decided (Angels in the West) there are eight teams that have a shot at the remaining three AL spots.  Realistically the Rangers, Blue Jays, and Tigers are not going to make it but they are all a smoking hot run away from putting themselves right in the thick of it.  The AL East got very interesting this past weekend when the leading Rays lost Longoria and Crawford to injury until at least early September.  Even more than ever I think Boston will win the East now.  The young Rays just weren't going to hold on in the pressure of September, the question now is can they hold off the Yankees and White Sox for the wild card?  I say yes simply because the White Sox are done and the Yankees are too inconsistent.

Yes, I said the White Sox are done.  They are 11-12 with a 5.66 ERA since the break.  The just lost Contreras for the season and the bullpen has gone from the best in the league to very sketchy.  The offense lives and dies by the home run and that is no way to win down the stretch.  Minnesota is not going to let up.  They finally brought back Liriano and he has been brilliant.  The rabbits are incredibly tough to get out and that sets up Mauer and Morneau to clear the table.  Yet again the Twins find a bunch of people you've never heard of and go out and win the division, amazing.

The State of the Tigers
I'm running on a bit of blind faith but I'm not ready to stick a fork in them.  I had said earlier that if they could get through the tough 20-game stretch after the break they could set up well for August.  They went 9-11 during that stretch and now sit eight games back of Minnesota.  The offense is white hot scoring just over six runs per game after the break.  However, the pitching has regressed after a promising June.  The bullpen has been especially bad saving only 3 of 11 chances post-break.  Who would have thought that Armando Galarraga and Zach Miner would be Detroit's best starters.  Miner is 3-1 with a 2.31 ERA in four starts and Galarraga continued his strong play posting a 2.90 ERA in July and August.  The rest of the staff has been bad enough to raise the team ERA to 4.92 post-break.  If somehow, someway Rodney can stay in the strike zone, Zumaya can find his breaking ball and Farnsworth can pull his head out of his ass this team still has a chance, but it's getting pretty slim.

In Leyland we trust,
-Big Red

WARNING: MUST BE 18 YEARS OF AGE TO READ FURHTER

The quityerbitchin section
Gary Sheffield, you need to shut your fucking mouth.  For christ's sake you're hitting .219.  I could train a monkey to do that.  When you accepted the trade to come here you knew you were going to DH.  You throw like a girl and can't stay healthy, what the fuck do you think you can accomplish in the outfield.  Shut your hole and hit the ball, although I don't think you're capable of either one you sorry waste of space.  It's has beens like you that drag this game down.  Do us all a favor, retire.
Kyle Farnsworth, you want to cry about being traded from New York.  Go fuck yourself.  You should be crying about your shitty pitching and how it is painfully clear that you don't give a fuck about playing baseball.  You just want get drunk and whine like a baby.  You're not a ballplayer, you're a frat boy. Grow up and play hard or get the fuck out of Detroit.

The All-Star break is fading away and it's time to suck it up and head into the dog days of summer.  This is where a team can make it or break it and the Tigers are poised to make a big run, here's why:

1)  They are finally healthy (sort of)
With the return of Magglio and Inge they will once again have the lineup everyone envisioned back in spring training.  The Tigers hit stride and went an MLB best 16-4 from June 6 until Ordonez hit the DL and went just 7-7 without him.  Granderson has rounded into his old form in the last month after the broken finger and Polanco has quietly hit .329 since May 1st when his back finally got healthy.  Rodney and Zumaya are back in what has become a much more dependable bullpen.  Yes, Cabrera can't run right now, but he couldn't run before either.  And yes, Sheffield is worthless and the starting staff has lost two members from opening day, but that leads to point 2

2)  The kids are alright
Every good team needs a rookie or two to step up and fill a role at some point during the season.  The pundits said that they sold the farm to get Cabrera, Willis and Renteria.  Dombrowski said the hitters were there (Joyce, Thomas, Larish) and he was able to get Armando Gallaraga for a song.  Gallaraga has been the most steady pitcher they've had all year, Thomas has shown great plate presence with a .366 OBP, and Matt Joyce is just plain killing the ball in his second stint in the majors en route to last week's AL Player of the Week honors.  They have been able to fill the holes and the hitters give Leyland an option at DH instead of trotting out the $14 million fungo machine Gary Sheffield.  Larish also allows Leyland to DH Cabrera while his hip flexor is hurting and improve the defense at 1B.  These guys have been much better than expected and all signs point to that continuing.

3)  The schedule
Right out of the break the Tigers will face a stretch of 17 of 20 games on the road, not an enviable path, especially in a year when teams are winning at home at the highest rate in something like 70 years.  However, 11 of those 17 are against division bottom feeders Kansas City, Cleveland and Baltimore.  There's a home and home against Chicago and they finish the run off at Tampa.  If the boys can get through that stretch with a winning record August sets up as a time to really make up some ground.  From Aug. 8 to Sep. 4 the Tigers play 26 games with only 6 on the road and only 10 against teams with winning records including 6 against Texas and Oakland who are likely to slide after surprising 1st halves.  They then finish the season with seven at home and the last four against Tampa in a series likely to have huge implications in multiple divisions and the wildcard races.  And best of all the Tigers are done with the west coast.  After playing 22 games in the pacific time zone in the first half the longest trips they will make in the second half are to Tampa and Texas.

4)  The rotation
After the unmitigated disaster that was the month of April this group has gotten much better.  In the last month Verlander has found his velocity and returned to ace form going 4-0 with 41 K's and a 2.92 ERA in six starts.  Kenny and Nate have brought their ERA's down and pitched deeper into games and Gallaraga has been his steady self.  Even Eddie Bonine has posted a 1-1 record and 4.22 ERA in four starts.  Not mind-blowing numbers but there are a lot of teams that would love to have that from their 4 starter, let alone the 5.  And the most important number - after walking batters at a rate of .49 BB/INN in April and May the Tigers staff has issued just .39 BB/INN in June and July so far.

In Leyland we trust
-Big Red

Hey, check that out - The Tigers once 12 games under .500 have charged back to, well, .500, capping a brilliant June that ensured at the very least they are back in the mix for the AL Central. They have cooled off a bit since the calendar turned to July - splitting a four game series with the worst team in baseball (and yeah, I know they've played better since firing their manager, but come on) and losing two of three to the Twins in the Metrodome, which is infinitely more forgivable.

After their hot streak they're limping to the All-Star break primarily because of Magglio Ordonez and Brandon Inge on the disabled list, and Miguel Cabrera playing in some pain. At this point, so long as they can make it to the Break at .500 and Chicago does not go on an eight-game winning streak, they've managed to put themselves in position to contend for the Central after their disastrous start.

It's after the All-Star Break, with a healthy Maggs, Inge, and some more time off for Cabrera that I would expect the Tigers to make a real push - if they're going too.

Additionally, maybe the time off can also give Gary Sheffield some rest, who has come back to earth after his amazing first couple of games back from the DL. Just throwing this out there, but maybe resting The Shef more, like what Jim Leyland has done with Pudge would pay similar dividends?


Joel Zumaya has said it feels like he hasn't had spring training. His feelings are incredibly in tune with reality. He did not, in fact, have spring training. That aside, his pitching, while not spectacular, has been steadily improving. He's coming off of probably his best performance yet, two innings, two walks, but no hits and three K's. It's also heartening that his velocity appears to be the best since 2006.

No, Zoom did not attend spring training, but if July is his March and he can be in fresh-season shape by August, it would be a great boon to a team hitting the dog days of August when most players are the opposite of "fresh."

Tigers Lineup

As the manager or coach, you take the sunshine and the rain. It's so hard to actually measure how effective a baseball manager is, so in general it's going to unfortunately come down mostly things entirely out of your control, pretty shitty, huh?

In any case, Jim Leyland has manned up and taken more than his share of the blame and has been experimenting with lineups and positions since the season began with Granderson on the DL. The most recent idea(s) is having Granderson start even against lefties, Thames is the everyday left fielder - except when Guillen starts there in the future (what?).

All of Leyland's tinkering leads me to create my own lineup. Remember that for the most part, the batting order has little to do with runs scored. My starting nine is based on current performance and meant to address a major issue the Tigers gave themselves in 2007 and has worsened in 2008 -

Phrased negatively: They have too many defensive liabilities.
Phrased positively: They have an abundance of Designated Hitters!

Curtis Granderson - CF
Placido Polanco - 2B
Carlos Guillen - DH
Magglio Ordonez - RF
Miguel Cabrera - 1B
Marcus Thames - LF
Edgar Renteria - SS
The Pudge - C
Brandon Inge - 3B

With the exceptions of Renteria and Cabrera, it's an '06 throwback lineup. The first two lineup spots are no-brainers and how Leyland has had it for three years now.

Guillen bats third, his OBP is second only to Magglio, ditto for Doubles, OPS, and he's third in RBI. At least until Cabrera starts playing like the Cabrera of the NL, Guillen is your three hitter.

He also needs to DH. Tiger fans before '06 will remember that there was a time when Guillen made fewer errors and had greater range, but his knees are toast. He's still the second best hitter on the team and needs to be the lineup, but not at third, short stop, or left field.

Mags at cleanup is likewise a no-brainer and his defense seems a lot better than when he first signed with the club and I thought he would be a DH is no-time. However, he's finally entirely healthy from previous injuries and an effective fielder.

Cabrera at fifth, he hasn't done poorly, just severely below expectations. He's another DH candidate. He's bad at third, not athletic enough to handle Comerica Park's left field. He's also the reason I don't have Guillen at first and looks to be the Tigers first baseman of the future.

For the time being, Thames has earned a real shot at playing everyday.

Renteria is playing admirably, getting out of his recent slump, he's second on the club in RBIs.

The Pudge is still the Tigers best choice for catcher, even though in recent years he's been an offensive black hole, he's still one of the best defensive catchers and still has some pop in his bat.

And finally, Inge makes his triumphant comeback to my good graces! Even if he wasn't on the DL, Sheffield needs to be benched. Inge's defense at third would help a club whose starting pitching is finally coming around and in the nine hole, he's going to see more fastballs and be what he is - a serviceable number nine hitter.

Tiger Things

First of all, I really need to blog more. Just last weekend, I was telling Joel how I felt a Tiger turn was imminent because the last 2-3 weeks the starting pitching has been getting the job done.

Then a couple of days ago in the Detroit Fress Press, John Lowe writes an article paraphrasing my reasoning to Joel. What bullshit John Lowe! Come up with your own material.

In any case, Lowe did the research and sure enough, in the last 17 games, the Tigers has 12 quality starts. For comparison, in the first 36 games, they had eight, Lowe notes this is the fewest in the majors of that span.

From "watching" the Tigers via MLB's Gameday and radio, my analysis comes with the huge caveat that I have viewed only three or four games this year, however, the starting pitching the last three weeks have been extremely encouraging.

I've always said that hitting is somewhat cyclical. Even with the bats the Tigers have in their lineup, they're not going to be on every night. Good starting pitching - either you have it or you don't - end of discussion. I was somewhat relieved to see the bullpen losing games against the Angels - at least losing games the way we thought they'd be losing games and by my logic (iffy) they should start winning games they way we thought they would in the coming weeks.

I think the Tigers are finally putting the pieces together and are poised for a big June. To aid them this month, I am putting The June Swoon on the White Sox. I know every year I predict a June Swoon for one team and have been wrong every time. This doesn't bother me, I really just like saying "June Swoon." So for good measure and a chance at being correct at least once, the following teams will have June Swoons:

The Chicago White Sox - Nobody has taken off in the Central and at the end of the year it won't be the White Sox, they don't have the hitting. They are at the top of the AL Central by not sucking.

The Arizona Diamondbacks - they're a good team, but were playing way above their level. SWOON'D!

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Through the grandfather clause, I am still allowed to call them the Devil Rays and potentially upset the people in Florida who watch the 700 club. It pains me to predict a swoon, but the AL East is so good, I can't see the Devil Rays staying on top for much longer.

COMING IN JULY:

Who will succumb to the Dog Days of August?

I'm looking at you Chicago Cubs.

Tuesday Tigers.

Since their 0-7 start, the Tigers are 13-8 and seem to have gotten their bats going. On Sunday night, for just the first time in this short season, Jim Leyland had the starting nine he envisioned going into spring training.

The Tigers have had more than their fair share of concerns despite their recent winning ways and outslugging of teams. For the most part the main questions I had when the Tigers came out of spring training still exist.

How effective is Kenny Rogers going to be?

The guy is going on 44 years-old, he hasn't had strong velocity in several years and generally relies on keeping hitters off balance and having good location. Despite winning Tuesday's game, Rogers has had early exits recently due to high pitch counts which have in turn been due to a high number of walks and consistently going deep in the count. For a pitcher that relies on location the walks are not a welcome sight, but maybe it's time to reevaluate the expectations for Kenny Rogers. It's possible that 2006's 17-8 was the last great mark for The Gambler. If he can deliver a .500 or better record with a era at or around 4.00, we should consider the Tigers fortunate for getting the last of his gutty efforts.

How effective is fellow geriatric case Gary Sheffield going to be?

While I have changed expectations for Rogers and think he can live up to them, I'm far less optimistic with Gary Sheffield. He's old. The guy used steroids. He's beginning to far apart just like that anti-steroid commercial the MLB plays during its games without the slightest bit of irony. The fact remains that this guy hasn't had a full season since 2005. In 2007, when The Shef played his best ball, so did the Tigers, but now the Tigers lineup has a lot of power, so maybe a gimpy Sheffield playing half the time can be the most they can ask for. I don't worry so much about his slow start to which veteran players are especially prone, but his shoulders which seems to be having cortisone picnics every other day.

How long will we refer to Jacques Jones and Dontrelle Willis as "those other guys we acquired in the off-season?"

Miguel Cabrera has caught on, Edgar Renteria has been looking like the overlooked trade this off-season with his production early on, but what of fellow new Tigers Dontrelle Willis and Jacques Jones? Sure, it's still early in the season for Jones and early in his Tigers career for Dontrelle, but their addition to the team has been dismal. Jones has this long time Inge-Detractor clamoring, "more Inge please" and Willis has often had me clamoring for the bullpen - two unique and uncomfortable positions to be in.


Other Thoughts:


I have no idea when Jones will catch on, but his horrendous play coupled with numerous short term injuries make Dave Dombrowski the smartest man alive for NOT trading Inge.

Jason Grilli has been traded to Colorado where the thin air should really help his fastball that doesn't have any movement.*

Armando Galarraga has pitched perhaps the best of the staff since taking over for Willis, he's earned at least a spot in the bullpen for his efforts.




MLB Picks

Of course this comes exceptionally late, but in a 162 game season, making your picks after 20-some games doesn't seem that bad.

AL Central
Detroit Tigers

AL East
Boston Red Sox

AL West
Seattle Mariners

Wild Card: Los Angeles Angels of Disneyland


NL East
New York Mets

NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers

NL West
Colorado Rockies

Wild Card: Atlanta Braves


*Sarcasm!

Right, so my lengthy hiatus is nearing a close, but I absolutely have to get in my NFL playoff picks. Last year I was perfect (BLUSH), so I wasn't gonna miss this for the world. It's a lot harder, though. Last year had a team of destiny (New Orleans), an unbeatable team in the NFC (Chicago at home), the squad that just wasn't gonna lose AGAIN (Indy) and a reliably good contender (New England). The picks made themselves. This year is muddier. If Green Bay had sewn up home-field by beating the Bears, they'd be an easy pick to go to the big game. But AT Dallas for the NFC championship? Well shoot, THAT is a much trickier equation. The NFC wildcard games are a crap shoot, namely because the teams in them are, well, crap. And the only seemingly sure thing, the Patriots, are, in my humble opinion, not NEARLY as sure a thing as many would think.

Look, here's the deal, the Pats went 16-0, yes, but who did they really beat? The win over Dallas was impressive, but the score was much more lopsided than the game, which Dallas led briefly in the thrid quarter. They caught Indy without Marvin Harrison, Tony Ugoh, and two of their starting linebackers and barely eked it out. They caught Pittsburgh without EITHER starting safety (don't think that not having Troy Polamalu against that vertical passing game wasn't a big deal) and got the benefit of the Steelers' third string safety believing that he was actually in a position to publically guarantee a preseason game let alone a game against the Patriots, and they didn't look nearly as impressive as they should have against Baltimore, Philly, and the Jets down the stretch. What's more, they had a pretty easy schedule. The AFC east was, in fact, the worst division in football. So given that their defense isn't nealry as formidable as it once was and they've proven incapable of running the ball, my pick has to be that...they're going to win it all. Just like I said in August. Just like I've said since April. Look, if Indy and Pittsburgh were both healthy, and New England had to play some combination of two of the three next best teams (Indy, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh), maybe it'd be a different story. But Jacksonville will play Pittsburgh in the first week, and the winner will play Indy in two weeks. So New England will get a week to rest up, then they'll host either Tennessee of San Diego (yeah, right) and they'll they'll host Indy without Dwight Freeny. Now, don't sleep on the Colts, that is a superb team, one of the only that can take this Pats squad, but there's two HUGE factors that will keep them from winning.

First, it's in New England. Foxboro in January is a formidable field to play at, and Indy is a turf team. Granted, Indy's run game may actually help neutralize much of this advantage, but New England is an outdoor team, and that's such a big advantage I still can't believe teams keep building domes. The second, and bigger issue, is the loss of Dwight Freeney. The reason the Colts are so well fit to play the Pats is their defensive line's ability to pass rush. Tom Brady is a big, slow QB. He can't scramble away from pressure and subsequently needs time to make his superb reads and pick apart defenses. This does not mean, however, that blitzing him is an effective strategy. Brady also has a nose for extra rushers and when you blitz him, he'll hit his hot route and pick you apart seven yards at a time all day. Subsequently, the only way I see of beating these guys is a relentless pass rush generated by your D-line (a tall order against the best pass-blocking O-line in football) and dropping the other 7 players back into a cover two and physically punishing the New England receivers for all four quarters. So, without Freeney, the vaunted Indy pass rush will be much easier to neutralize, Brady will have time, and the Indy D will struggle valiantly, but just won't be able to keep the game in Manning's reach.

Anyway, tune in on Tuesday when Tuesday Morning Takebacks returns when I try to preempt the "Greatest Team Ever" conversation by analyzing the strength of schedule, points for, and points against of all of the 14 and 15 win teams in history against that of the Pats. In the meantime, on to my picks.

Tennessee over San Diego - Bolts are playing great ball of late, but Norv Turner? In the playoffs? A gritty, physical Titans team gets a close win.

Jacksonville over Pittsburgh - With their O-line banged up and Willie Parker also out, the Steelers are hitting their low point at EXACTLY the wrong time. Jacksonville seems like it's finally ready to take that last step.

Indy over Jacksonville - This might wind up being the best game of the year if Indy can't keep it close at New England. These two teams are always a great game, but I think the Colts are too determined to defend their title against the Pats undefeated squad to let this slip away.

New England over Tennessee - Yeah. No.

New England over Indy - Rest assured, I will be pulling for Indy to win this HARDCORE. In terms of karma, after the Dolphins failed to win in week 16, the only thing that could top this would be if the Pats get to the superbowl and lose to a last second Brett Favre hail mary. Yes, that would be beautiful. Which brings me to the NFC.

Seattle over Washington - I like the Redskins as the team of destiny following the tragic loss of Sean Taylor, but Seattle is a veteran team with one of the better coaches in history and a smart, veteran QB. And they're at home.

Tampa Bay over NY Giants - Never go with the Giants in the playoffs. Unless Parcells makes a miraculous return as their coach.

Green Bay over Seattle - Nobody wins in Lambeau in January. Except Michael Vick. Come to think of it, maybe that's why he killed all those dogs. It was part of a bizarre sacrifice ritual to appease whatever gods allowed him to win that game. So there it is, in order to win in Green Bay in the post-season, you essentially have to sell your soul to the devil. Flew to high on wings of wax Mike.

Dallas over Tampa Bay - If there are two teams other than Green Bay and Dallas in the championship, I will be REALLY surprised.

Green Bay over Dallas - It's the 40th anniversary of the Ice Bowl, possibly the greatest football game ever played. Another reason why it would have been SO cool for it to be in Green Bay. Anyway, I think the Favre magic is back and I simply won't go against it. Dallas is probably the better team, but Favre has been here before and Romo hasn't.

New England over Green Bay - GOD I hope I'm wrong.

RS,
JPA