My bracket has officially been busted.  I would like to thank Pitt, Davidson, Clemson, Winthrop, Connecticut, Duke, Kent State, Villanova, and Butler (just to name a few) for making me seem like an idiot among my friends.

On to bigger and better things, especially for UNC.  After demolishing Mt. St. Mary’s, I had an uneasy feeling about playing Arkansas.  I don’t know why, but maybe it has to do with UNC’s history playing the Razorbacks in the tournament (except for 1993).  Even my Tar Heels took me by surprise, crushing Arkansas by 31 points.  I don’t know, however, if this means that the Heels are this good or if Arkansas (a team that beat Tennessee recently) isn’t so good.

The big keys to these cruising victories have been two things; first, the fact that Ty Lawson and Quentin Thomas have committed zero turnovers this weekend, and Wayne Ellington and Lawson have scored a ton of points.  This has eased a lot of pressure of Tyler Hansbrough, and made UNC dangerous from the back court again instead of just worrying about what was going on in the front.  Kudos also have to go out to Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson who have scored in double digits in both games so far.  Regardless what all of the talking heads say, Thompson can be a huge factor if Hansbrough is getting roughed up and Ellington, Danny Green, and Lawson are cold.  Deon has to man up every night for this team to be successful.

Now, we move on to Washington State.  There are Cougar fans already running their mouths about how their tough defense is going to shut the Tar Heels down.  I crunched some numbers, and these teams are pretty evenly matched in most categories.

UNC has a slight lead in field goal and three point percentage.  The Heels shoot 48.6% from the floor and 37.9% from beyond the arc.  State shoots an even 48% from the floor and 37.5% from three-point land.  UNC has an edge at the free throw line, shooting 75.5% while the Cougars shoot 73.1%.  It’s also important to note that UNC has made more free throws than the Cougars have even attempted.  Washington State has 1.4/1 assist to turnover ratio, and Carolina has 1.2/1.  Finally, North Carolina averages 89.4 points per game, and Washington State averages 67.

Granted the Cougars have only given up an average of 40 points in their first two games in the trounament, but they haven’t had to deal with a team that has the speed of Carolina.  Not even UCLA or Stanford possess the deadly speed Washington State will see later this week.  I may be a homer, but I give a huge advantage to UNC on this alone.  Now, this means that the Heels will have to force some turnovers and score in transition, and Ellington and Green have to shoot pretty well.  If Thompson can complement Hansbrough as well as he has been lately, I don’t see how the Heels can lose.

The Cougars will try to slow this one down to a painful funeral march tempo, and they will force Carolina to try and execute in the halfcourt.  If this matchup were early on in the season, I would say the Heels are in trouble, but playing from the halfcourt was something they improved upon when Lawson was injured.  I’m not worried about that.  As long as we keep up with the improved defense, Carolina will dominate this game.  If not, then it’s gonna be close.

My prediction:  North Carolina 81, Washington State 66 

What a game!  Not the final score that I predicted, but a win is a win.  It's sweet beating Duke, but beating them on their senior night just makes it all the better!

UNC smothered Duke behind the arc in the first half, and that was key.  Had Duke been in the 40's at halftime this game could have had a different result.  Even though they were able to sink some three's in the second half, the overall defensive effort was at a national championship level.  Danny Green and Deon Thompson were swatting shots away all night.  Roy Williams also tried something new against Duke that I've never really seen him attempt before.  Instead of trying to battle through the screens the Blue Devils were setting, they were switching up on them.  It may have given some awkward matchups (like Hansbrough on Paulus) but they defended very effectively.  Hopefully they keep this practice as I think their quickness and athleticism gets them to the ball a lot quicker than what they were doing before.

Ty Lawson played extremely well.  He's not at 100% quite yet and you can still see a little hesitation here and there, but he made some amazing plays and the reverse layup in the first half was sweet.  He also made a very important steal in the second half, missing the layup in transition but getting help from Danny Green.

What can you say about Tyler Hansbrough?  There were several plays last night that I thought he could have gone to the free throw line for, but still fought down low and hit some key shots.  Wayne Ellington, Green, Deon Thompson, and Quentin Thomas made some key shots and also played extremely well.

Now comes the ACC Tournament.  I actually despise conference tournaments, so if UNC exits at the third round it wouldn't bother me one bit.  Even though I would love to see Duke vs UNC part III, conference tournaments are only a last gasp effort by bubble teams to make the big dance.  Still, UNC can't lose in their frist game or they may be in danger of losing out on the opportunity to get some serious homecourt advantage in the tournament.

I'm starting to believe this team will go all the way now.  And the scary part about it is that they're still not playing at their full potential.

Revenge.

At long last, the Heels visit the Outhouse.....I mean Cameron Indoor for the long awaited rematch.  Carolina is playing some of their better basketball, and I think they're peaking at the right time to get the victory.  Like it or not (and I don't), Duke is very good.  They do, however, have their weaknesses.  North Carolina has a few things to make sure they can stun Durham again on senior night like they did two years ago.

First, the perimeter defense has gotten a lot better.  Shots are getting contested a lot more and it shows.  With the exception of the Tyrese Rice explosion at Boston College, I've noticed a considerable difference in how many three-point shots are getting met with defensive effort.  Carolina has to make sure they don't get killed on dribble penetration.  With that being said, Greg Paulus couldn't get past Ty Lawson with a bad ankle, so this should be a huge improvement over the soft fight Quentin Thomas put up against Paulus in the first meeting.  What this also means is that Wayne Ellington or Marcus Ginyard will have to put Demarcus Nelson in check.  Nelson is the only real big "to the hoop" threat that Duke has.  If you follow Carolina basketball like I do, I think you know that Wayne Ellington doesn't play lock down defense, so it looks like it will ne up to Ginyard and Danny Green to play the role of Jackie Manuel.

Second, Duke doesn't have anyone to match up with Tyler Hansbrough physically.  The Heels need to feed him the ball on every possession.  Both Kyle Singler and Greg Zoubek are way too soft to contain him.  If we can get Singler into foul trouble early on (which doesn't really happen that much at Cameron) that could potentially eliminate another deadly three-point shooter.  I look for Hansbrough to have a huge night, personally.

Third, Danny Green and Wayne Ellington need to shoot well.  This is a given, but even if Carolina plays excellent defense, you have to count on Duke hitting some shots.  If Ellington and Green go cold, then it means all Tyler, all the time.  Duke would be able to afford to double and triple team Hansbrough.  Ellington or Green (or both) need to hit some jump shots to keep the pressure off the inside game.

FInally, Carolina is road tested.  The ACC road schedule as well as non-conference road schedule has put the Heels into many tough places to play this year.  The "Cameron Crazies" won't bother them at all.  As a matter of fact, I think this team plays better and seems to have less pressure on them on the road rather than at home.

PREDICTION-North Carolina will execute the game plan, but Duke will hang tough.  North Carolina avenges the Chapel Hill defeat and beats Duke 85-77.