With the election of the first African American president, Barack Obama, America won in last night's election. Not only will he be the first black president, he will also be the first Democrat to win a majority of the popular vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976. With not all of the vote yet counted, Obama stands at 52% to 46% for John McCain. After eight years of enduring the worst presidency in United States history, thank God hope and change beat hate and fear.

We have a lot to celebrate from yesterday's results, and a lot to be disappointed about as well. The election of Barack Obama as president confirms that we, as a nation, have come a long way since the civil rights movement that gave African Americans voting protections, ended segregation in the South and punished those that commit hate crimes.

While the Civil War was won nearly one hundred and fifty years ago, the electoral map of 2008 vividly displays the divide between North and South. Yet for the first time since 1964, the state of Indiana joined its Midwestern neighbors in backing a Democrat for president. This is astounding in itself, as Obama managed to win heavily white rural counties, including those in Southern Indiana, which were once a hotbed of KKK activity. But it was the counties that include South Bend, Lafayette, Bloomington, Gary and Indianapolis that delivered 15%+ victories to help Obama win a state that George W. Bush carried by 21% in 2004.

He also won in the Southern states of Virginia, which like Indiana has not voted for a Democrat since 1964, North Carolina and Florida. The growth of these states in recent years has brought young professionals from all over the country to seek jobs and a new way of life in cities like Richmond, Charlotte, Orlando and Tampa Bay. Georgia, South Carolina and Mississippi were the closest that they have been since 1996. The "Solid South" in the next few years will begin to be seeing a little more blue.

At the same time as Americans celebrated the election of the first black president, a new class of citizens came under assault. Gay Americans suffered major setbacks as discrimination was written into the constitutions of Arizona, California and Florida. Proposition 8 in California, which passed 52% to 48%, will reverse the California Supreme Court decision earlier this year that legalized gay marriage in the state. With the help of a massive effort from the Mormon Church, who literally flooded the state with volunteers to pass Proposition 8, Californians singled out a class of their fellow citizens as second class by revoking their right to legally marry.

For those that voted for Proposition 8 and others like it, how does a gay person's marriage affect you? Proponents of banning gay marriage claimed that society would go into chaos, yet that hasn't exactly happened in Massachusetts, California, Canada or European countries where gay marriage is legalized. The argument against gay marriage is based in religious doctrine and has no place in determining our laws.

For those of you that find yourself on the fence or are confused about the issue, let me explain something that is vitally important for you to know: legalizing gay marriage DOES NOT mean that your church will have to perform gay weddings. It would be unconstitutional for the state to tell a church what they have to do. The question here is whether a gay couple has the legal right, under state law, to civil marriage. If you picture in your head a ceremony and then picture going to the courthouse for a wedding license, the only thing that is affected is the piece of paper that you receive from the state. Gay marriage guarantees equal rights under the law for gay couples. It does not mean that churches will have to perform the wedding ceremony.

The fact that a simple majority can alter the constitution of a state to embed hateful and discriminatory policies towards one group of Americans should be alarming to everyone. I am a strong advocate for your right to practice religion as you want. But that does not give anyone the right to tell me that I can not marry the person that I love. For America, November 4, 2008 will be a day that one group of Americans took a step forward and another group took a step back. The hopes and dreams of a nation now ride on the actions of a newly elected president and Congress that are more sympathetic to the needs of its people than the Republicans and George Bush.

Thanks to every American for going to vote today. Barack Obama went up against the Clinton machine, a former two term president with a clear advantage in many states, and Obama came out ahead. He won a majority of the 22 states and looks to win a majority of the delegates. His wins include many blowouts, including:

Alabama:

Obama - 56%
Hillary - 42%

Alaska:

Obama - 75%
Hillary - 25%

Colorado:

Obama - 67%
Hillary - 32%

Connecticut:

Obama - 51%
Hillary - 47%

Delaware:

Obama - 53%
Hillary - 43%

Georgia:

Obama - 67%
Hillary - 31%

Idaho:

Obama - 79%
Hillary - 17%

Illinois:

Obama - 65%
Hillary - 33%

Kansas:

Obama - 74%
Hillary - 26%

Minnesota:

Obama - 67%
Hillary - 32%

Missouri:

Obama - 49%
Hillary - 48%

New Mexico:

Obama - 48%
Hillary - 48%

North Dakota:

Obama - 61%
Hillary - 37%

Utah:

Obama - 57%
Hillary - 39%

Even though Hillary won California and New York, her percentages in New England were surprisingly small. Her lead in the polls were at 20%+ in most of these states for the entire election, some had her at over 30%. Yet, in states like New Jersey she won with only 10%. New York, her home state, she had only 17%. Obama won his home state, Illinois, with nearly twice her support. In fact, Obama had 1.2 million votes in Illinois, compared to Hillary's 1 million votes on New York. She essentially was isolated to California/Arizona, New England and Arkansas/Tennessee/Oklahoma. Here are the states where Hillary won, but Obama did surprisingly well:

Arizona:

Obama - 42%
Hillary - 51%

Massachusetts:

Obama - 41%
Hillary - 56%

New Jersey:

Obama - 44%
Hillary - 54%

New York:

Obama - 40%
Hillary - 57%

Tennessee:

Obama - 41%
Hillary - 54%

Obama played on Hillary's home turf and gave her a run for her money: the "Tri-state" area in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Obama won Connecticut, he came within 10% in New Jersey and kept her within 20% in New York. Obama, meanwhile, won the Deep South and other traditionally Republican states in the Rocky Mountains overwhelmingly, proving he is far more electable in November than she is. He carried his home state of Illinois, winning Cook County, America's second largest county, with nearly 70% support. He won the bell weather state of Missouri, which has accurately predicted 25 of the last 26 presidents, with 49% of the vote to Hillary's 48%. He won Minnesota with 67%, sweeping the Midwest. Coming up is February 9 when Louisiana, Washington state and Nebraska vote. Get out and support Obama!

undefined The Politics of Hope vs. The Politics of Fear



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Just five days after winning a historic victory in nearly all-white Iowa by 9%, Barack Obama fell just 2% of beating Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. I won't lie, I didn't expect him to lose. I thought a big win was coming, but it didn't happen tonight.

Let's keep this loss in context:

1. Barack Obama was down by double digits weeks ago.
2. Hillary won by a little more than 5,000 votes or 2%.
3. Women made up 57% of the Democratic vote.
4. Women supported Hillary 47-34% over Obama.
5. John McCain won with 38% of the vote in the Republican primary. He drew much of his support from independents, who helped Obama win Iowa. It seems that the poll numbers showing Obama ahead so far might have led to these independents voting for McCain instead.
6. Independents yet again overwhelmingly supported Obama over Hillary.

Two states down, one thing is clear: Obama is supported by independents by more than 2-1 over Hillary Clinton. If Democrats want to win in November like we did in 2006, we need independent voters to support us in the way that they support Barack Obama. I'm a liberal Democrat. I want change. We aren't going to get it without the support of independent voters. These voters can not stand Hillary. Neither can Republicans. That much is clear from Iowa and New Hampshire.

I support Barack Obama for his opposition to the war since day one. He was on the right side of history. I support Barack Obama because having a president who is black and has a name like that will send a message to the rest of the world: America has changed. We are not the country of the Baby Boomer generation. We are tolerant of people's race and religion. Discrimination based on race, religion, sexual orientation and gender are over.

We can change this country. It started in Iowa and it ends in November. In the weeks ahead, Nevada and South Carolina will decide. On February 5, states like Alabama, California, Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, Tennessee and West Virginia will vote, as well as others. Nearly half of the nation will vote on Super Tuesday. The "Clinton coronation" that was supposed to be was the "Clinton correction" in Iowa with Barack Obama's 9% win. Hillary might have won in New Hampshire, but by 1/3 the percent of Obama's in Iowa. It is clear now that there will be a fight for the nomination. With the support of independents, Democrats and Republicans, Barack Obama can become the next president of the United States. Now that Iowa and New Hampshire have decided, it's your turn. Vote.

As I said yesterday, history would be in the making today. The state of Iowa has handed the first win to a black presidential candidate in United States history. Hillary Clinton, long touted as the so-called "front-runner" lost decisively as a distant third. As John Edwards so eloquently said, "the status quo lost and change won." He couldn't be more right. Barack Obama won a 93% white state (only 2% black) with 38% of the vote.

Obama - 38%
Edwards - 30%
Hillary - 29%

Here are some key points from tonight's results:

1. 57% of Obama's support came from voters aged 18-29; Hillary was supported by 45% by voters over 65

There's a clear generational gap and for the first time, young voters prevailed. The media says all the time how young voters do not show up and vote. They did and they did overwhelming for Barack Obama. People my age are taking control of the country away from the Baby Boomer generation that has failed us for so long.

2. Obama won among women: 35% Obama, 30% Clinton, 23% Edwards

Hillary was using the gender card most of this campaign. Women rejected her. Perhaps it was all of the negative campaigning that she employed, raising questions about Obama and drug use, digging through his kindergarten papers (literally), and using his theme of change when clearly voting for her could not bring that about.

3. 227,000 voters turned out to vote in the Democratic caucus alone. That's nearly double the turnout in 2004, and double the turnout of the Republicans in 2008. One word: amazing.

Why is that? Because Barack Obama has cross-party appeal that Hillary Clinton does not. Not only did Obama win among Democrats, he overwhelmingly won independents. Here's how independents voted:

Obama - 41%
Edwards - 23%
Hillary - 17%

4. The under 30 vote went the same way as the overall results of the top 3 Democrats and top 2 Republicans. In other words, younger voters are heavily influencing the process and reflect the overall outcome. More than half of caucus goers said it was their first time, and they broke for Obama 40% to 30% for Hillary. The next contest is in New Hampshire on Tuesday where independents can also vote in the primary. If they break for Obama like they did today, Hillary will lose overwhelmingly yet again and Obama will more than likely win the Democratic nomination.

Tomorrow, voters go to the polls in the state of Iowa to decide who will lead America post-Bush. After millions of dollars on ads, dozens of debates, hundreds of town hall meetings by all of the candidates and nearly a full year of campaigning, including a frantic push these past two weeks during the holiday season, things are coming into view. The Democratic race appears to be tight. Mike Huckabee, who most people had not heard of until a few weeks ago, is giving Mitt Romney the race of his life on the Republican side.

Since who I support is clear if you know me or have read my past blogs (Obama), I'm not going to make another pitch for why he should be the Democratic nominee. Instead, as I did just before the 2006 elections, correctly predicting Democrats would reclaim Congress, winning all 3 competitive House races in Indiana, as well as the Senate races in Montana, Missouri, Ohio and Virginia, I want to get on the record for who will win the Iowa caucuses and the nominations (at least the Democratic side). Here are my predictions:

1. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama wins Iowa, upsetting the "front-runner" Hillary Clinton in what will go down as one of the most historic primary upsets of all time. The former president Clinton's wife, Hillary, will be defeated by a one-term Senator from Illinois by more than 5 percentage points. In fact, John Edwards will come in second and Hillary will stumble to an embarrassing third.

2. Mike Huckabee's past and recent campaign gaffes will haunt him. It also won't help that he is in California on Iowa Caucus Eve to tape a show with Jay Leno. As you may recall, Leno didn't exactly help from Thompson take off when he skipped a New Hampshire debate to appear on the Tonight Show. Mitt Romney, despite the media's relentless scrutiny of his Mormon faith and flip-flopping track record, will win in Iowa for his efforts on the ground spending so much time there and his get out the vote machine. This one will be closer. I would guess Romney wins only by 3-5 points.

3. This is where it gets interesting. On the Republican side, Ron Paul is going to surprise people with a third or fourth place showing. McCain will more than likely be right behind him, with Fred Thompson a distant single-digit fifth. Rudy Giuliani, the national "front-runner" will show up on the New York Times frontpage Friday morning a campaign-ending sixth place. Only Congressman Duncan Hunter will do worse than Rudy in Iowa.

4. Barack Obama's win in Iowa will translate into a New Hampshire surge, where independents in the Granite State will vote overwhelming in the Democratic primary instead of the Republican primary, hurting John McCain and helping Mitt Romney win his second primary.

Summary:

I predict Obama and Romney will win both Iowa and New Hampshire. I'll leave any further predictions for another day. As I told a friend, we only see a candidate like Obama once in every few generations. Lincoln, Roosevelt, Kennedy. History changers. Obama is the leader our country needs. He has Bill Clinton's charisma with the cross country appeal of John and Bobby Kennedy. Bill Clinton said that voting for Obama is "rolling the dice". In other words, you know what you're getting with the Clintons. It's not change and it's not something that America wants again. America needs a fresh start. Iowa is the place, tomorrow is the time.

Way back in what seems like a lifetime ago - 2002 and 2003 - most people realised that the United States was going to war with Iraq. President Bush, Vice President Cheney and members of his administration from Condi Rice to Donald Rumsfeld were drumming up the beat to war. 29 of 50 Senate Democrats were among those beating the drum to war, voting for the measure in October of 2002. Our 2004 nominee, John Kerry, and Hillary Clinton were among those that led the way to war, following hardliners like Senator Joe Lieberman (now an independent after being voted out of the party).

President Bush was "authorized to use the armed forces of the United States as he determines to be necessary and appropriate in order to (1) defend the national security of the United States against the continuing threat posed by Iraq, and (2) enforce all relevant United Nation Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq," according to the Senate resolution that Hillary Clinton voted for in 2002. If that isn't a vote for war, I don't know what is.

Senator Clinton has coyly acted like she voted to give President Bush the authority to go to war based on the condition that he allow U.N. weapons inspectors to complete a search of WMD in Iraq. The weapons inspectors were there and they found no evidence of WMD, yet we went to war anyway. Hillary Clinton knows full well that what she voted for in 2002 was war with Iraq. If she believed in what she says, she would have voted against that resolution in favor of Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana's proposal that would have required the president to come back to Congress to declare war.

Normally I wouldn't vote for someone based on a single issue. However, since Iraq is such a defining issue in our history, the choice made of going to war by Senators Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd should require us to hold them accountable for their vote. We can not simply be satisfied with their argument that they would do things differently than President Bush. They had that chance in 2002 and they failed to do so.

American voters need a president who completely rebukes the most significant policy of the Bush administration: pre-emptive war against another country that poses no threat to us. It was not the sole decision of Congressional Republicans or President Bush. As a Democrat, I am ashamed that my party negligently signed off on this war instead of acting as the opposition party that they were at the time. The Democratic Party of 2002 and 2003 was essentially the Republican Party.

Thankfully, with leaders like Barack Obama running for president and new House and Senate Democrats taking a stand against the war, the Democratic Party can offer America a real change from the current course we are on. Any of the Republicans being elected would mean a continuation of military action in Iraq and possibly escalation with Iran, which could ultimately lead to a third war in this decade.

Hillary Clinton's vote to declare the Iranian Republican Guard a terrorist organization was just as irresponsible as her vote to allow President Bush to have unchecked authority to invade Iraq. No president should be allowed to declare war on another nation. Our Constitution explicitly gives such power to Congress, yet Hillary Clinton and the rest of Congress at the time handed him a blank check. As Barack Obama has stated, Hillary Clinton shouldn't be so surprised that he cashed it.

Fellow citizens, vote your conscience in 2008. We cannot afford to make the wrong choice for a third straight election. The future of our nation, the Middle East and the world is at stake. There are very clear differences between both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, as well as the Democrats and Republicans. It is not in the interest of the United States to continue to ignore the plight of our military men and women while we at home continue to pay the bill for a failed war that is costing us lives, treasure, respect around the globe and our role as a leader of freedom.

The Republican manhunt on gays is coming back to haunt them. After using gays as a political pinata used to lure their voters to the polls in 2004, there have been no less than three sex scandals in the Republican Party in the past year alone. The party that used "value voters" to launch them to victory happens to have a bit of a sex addiction - with prostitutes, minors and males in bathrooms.

It started last September with Mark Foley when it was revealed that the Florida Republican U.S. House member had sex with male pages and exchanged sexually explicit Internet messages with minors. He resigned and immediately entered himself into alcohol rehab. Within a week, he was not only blaming it on alcohol, but also on a child molesting priest that he claims he was a victim of.

Just a few weeks ago, Louisiana Republican Senator David Vitter was having sex with prostitutes using an escort service in Washington D.C. Reports also came out of Lousiana that he was having sex with prostitutes there as well. Senator Vitter campaigned on "moral values" and was a foe of gay marriage before he was elected in 2004 (and once elected).

He admitted in a press conference, wife by his side, that he had cheated on her. "I'm a lot more like Lorena Bobbitt than Hillary [Clinton]," Wendy Vitter said in a 2000 interview. "If he does something like that, I'm walking away with one thing, and it's not alimony, trust me." No word on whether Senator Vitter's genitals are still attached.

If you thought the "raunchy Republicans" of David Vitter and Mark Foley were bad compared to say, Bill Clinton, who never professed moral superiority over anyone, only an Idaho Republican could top them. Larry Craig almost makes Mark Foley look quaint. He was arrested in June (it's only coming out now) for attempting to solicit sex in a male restroom at the Minneapolis Airport. You can see a comedic re-enactment of this by clicking here.

I guess what bothers me most is not just the indecent acts that Larry Craig has shown (and pleaded guilty to), but his arrogance and ridiculous denials after pleading guilty. This is a guy that voted to ban gay marriage, is against civil unions and against gays serving openly in the military, yet he is gay himself. We just didn't know about it, until now. Let me quote Senator Craig from a 1999 Meet the Press interview in which he described Bill Clinton as "a bad boy, a nughty boy". A fitting quote for someone as sexually perverted as he is. That's right Bill, you're a "bad boy". Now spank me!

All jokes aside, I have three points I want to make:

1. It wasn't the Democrats that made Mark Foley sleep with pages, David Vitter cheat on his wife and Larry Craig solicit sex to a cop in a restroom stall. With the exception of Foley (who was soliciting sex with minors) and Craig (who was soliciting sex in public), I doubt sex would even be a political issue if it wasn't for the Republican Party's hypocritical stance on moral values and their witch hunt  in the 1990s against President Bill Clinton, who they tried to impeach. Each of those three Republican sex scandals in the past year alone are FAR worse than what Bill Clinton did - a consensual blow job by an intern. Even more hypocritical - Larry Craig voted to impeach Bill Clinton. It has also come to light that then-Speaker of the House Gingrich was having an affair of his own at the same time he was leading the charge to impeach Clinton! Do these guys have no shame?

2. Republicans are not the party of moral values. If you don't practice the values that you profess, you are nothing more than a fake. And that's exactly what Larry Craig is - a fake. He's a guy that's been living a double life for years, possibly his entire adult life. What's wrong with a party that uses fear and hatred to make political gains like the Republicans do against gays. It's impossible for closeted gay men to ever be true with themself if you live in a culture like the one that Republicans would like the entire country to live under.

3. There's nothing wrong with being gay. The fact that Larry Craig is gay does not make him a bad person, nor should he resign for that fact. What's wrong with him is that he's a cheat, a liar and sexual deviant. Normal people don't have sex in restroom stalls. This includes gays and straights alike. Only perverts do this. The media is acting like his gayness is what's wrong. It's no worse if a straight person solicits sex in public than if a gay person does.

A man loving a man, a woman loving a woman or a man and woman loving each other is perfectly natural. We all want to be loved by someone - a partner, a lover and companion. Gay people are just as committed to this as straight people are. If the culture were more accepting of us, we wouldn't have people like Larry Craig living a double life. That's not in any way excusing his behavior. On the contrary. He doesn't represent the majority of gay people, just as David Vitter doesn't represent the majority of straight people. He is just a product of the Republican culture of exclusion, intolerance and hate.

George Bush = He bugs Gore
Dormitory = Dirty Room
Elvis = Lives
Clint Eastwood = Old West Action
Evangelist = Evil's Agent
The eyes = They see
George W. Bush = Bush Ego Grew
Jon Stewart = Jew Rat Snot
The cockroach = Cook, catch her
The Morse Code = Here Come Dots
Heavy Rain? = Hire a Navy!
Tom Cruise = So I'm Cuter
Mother-in-law = Woman Hitler
Hillary Clinton = Hill Clan in Troy
Funeral = Real Fun