We in Canada are citizens of one of the most fortunate countries in the world. Compared to world and historical standards we are highly affluent and highly educated. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution we have benefited from over 250 years of technological development. We therefore have greater responsibilities than citizens of less privileged nations. It is incumbent upon us to meet the challenges posed by global heating. If we cannot do it, no country can do it. If no country can do it, the future on this planet will not be a pretty one for our descendants.
Meeting the challenges posed by global heating requires transformational change of the economy, not more meaningless rhetoric about meeting distant targets or taking other half measures. None of the parties in this election are promising to do what is environmentally necessary. They only give you their best guess of what is politically possible. I set down below why it is necessary to have transformational change and what we must do to achieve it.I also argue that we must demand that the center/left parties unite around this issue and if they will not unite, that you should vote for an independent candidate.
Even though the Conservatives are supported by only 38% of the electorate, they are likely to remain in power because the center/left parties will not unite to defeat them. It is interesting to note that the leaders of the Liberal and Green parties can cooperate in their own narrow self interests but cannot cooperate in the larger interests of future generations of Canadians.
Below I set down my two-plank platform. First I state why it is urgent that we demand transformational change from our politicians and I state what must be done to make these transformational changes happen. Second I argue for uniting the center/left, failing which I ask you to vote for me. I begin by asking you to go back in time.
The Last Ice Age
Twelve thousand years ago the land which we now occupy was occupied instead by massive sheets of ice up to three kilometres thick. The weight of this ice was so great that it forced the entire continent down into the molten core of the planet. Since so much water was locked up into ice, ocean levels were low enough that people could walk across the Bering Strait into North America and island-hop short distances to ....Australia..... The mean planetary temperature was two degrees Celsius lower than it was at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was 180 parts per million.
The Industrial Revolution
.. ..
By two hundred and fifty years ago the planet had warmed up by two degrees Celsius. The ice had retreated to the planetary poles and ocean levels had risen hundreds of feet. The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was 280 parts per million.
Today
In the two hundred and fifty years since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased to 380 parts per million and the mean planetary temperature has risen by 0.8 degrees Celsius. Rapid melting of the remaining ice sheets is occurring at the poles and at higher elevations.
Estimates vary as to how much water would be released by complete melting as well as about how quickly this melting would occur. The only way to find out for sure would be to do it, but if the estimates of an eighty meter rise in ocean levels over the next few hundred years are anywhere near correct, melting all this ice would not be something we would want to do.
For example, here in Ottawa West - ....Nepean.... we are roughly sixty meters above sea level. If the oceans were to rise eighty meters, most of ....Ottawa.... would be under water. Future generations may see the ....Peace.. ..Tower.... on an island surrounded by brackish salt water. As our Parliamentarians took boats to work, maybe then they would take action!
The exact future however is immaterial. The point is that by continuing to rely on fossil fuels as heavily as we do, we are experimenting with significant consequences. Ocean level rises of these magnitudes would result in hundreds of millions of environmental refugees throughout the world. Think of thousands of New Orleans-scale disasters.
Why should these things happen to nice people like us? Because physics and chemistry have laws independent of moral worth. For the last 650,000 years there has been a lockstep relationship between atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and planetary temperatures. This seems to be an inescapable scientific fact. Wishful thinking apart, we have no reason to believe that this relationship will not hold into the future. We simply must restrain our carbon emissions.
The Future
We know that the temperature of a planet near a sun will rise if we inject heat-retaining gases into its atmosphere. What we don't know is what will happen if we take a planet and tell its seven billion inhabitants that injecting heat retaining gases into the atmosphere will raise the temperature of the planet. This is because the politics of global heating, not the science, is uncertain. What is politically possible and what is environmentally necessary are two different things.
The Politics of Global Heating
There is increasing awareness that the human race simply cannot continue to extract and burn fossil fuels without restraint. At the recent G8 conference, the leaders of the developed world, including George Bush (who during eight years in power has done nothing to address this problem) and Steven Harper, endorsed the target that by 2050 greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 50%.
It is important to realize that this is a conservative target. The reason that this target has been set is that because it is the consensus view of scientists worldwide that serious consequences such as outlined above will ensue if we fail to meet them.
Despite endorsing this target on the world stage, Prime Minister Harper came back to ....Canada.... and opined that the country will be "screwed" and "shafted" if carbon taxes are adopted as a matter of national policy. The Prime Minister takes this attitude despite thousands of economists including eight Nobel prize winners arguing that a carbon tax is the single most effective method of discouraging greenhouse gas emissions and encouraging transformation to a sustainable economy. While paying lip service to the target (and by default to the "20% by 2020" target endorsed at ..Bali.. by his "Environment Minister") he seems to have no serious plan to achieve it. He speaks vaguely instead of "regulations".
The Liberals argue for a carbon tax of $10, $20, $30 and $40 per ton in successive years of their proposed mandate and the Greens, not to be outdone, have proposed a tax of $50 per ton. Other per ton figures have been recommended. The Stern Report, for example, suggested that a tax of $80 per ton is necessary in order to meet the required objectives. I have read recommended prices of up to $150 and more per ton. The NDP wanting to dance to the different drum of blaming the corporations has proposed a cap-and-trade system whereby limits are placed on the emissions of large final emitters.
While these per ton taxes and caps are on the right track, the question is not what the carbon tax per ton should be but rather what the price per ton of carbon must be in order to meet the targets of 20% by 2020 and 50% by 2050 and the yearly milestone targets along the way.
The only way to achieve these goals is to set hard emissions reduction targets for every year on the way to 50/50 and then impose whatever level of tax is necessary to achieve those targets. The tax rate must therefore be adjustable, perhaps set by the Bank of Canada in conjunction with variable interest rates.
The monies raised by this tax will be re-invested into building a sustainable economy and into mitigating the negative impacts of this transition. Building a sustainable economy will not "screw" or "shaft" anybody. Building a sustainable economy is a huge challenge, will create millions of jobs and will result in a sustainable future in which all Canadians will win.
Necessarily as a result of this rebuilding process the fossil fuel economy will shrink from its present size and through diversion of resources and corresponding reinvestments, the sustainable economy will grow. This is transformational change. A 50% reduction by 2050 will bring about a future very different from what we know today. However, it appears that we must make these changes. If we in ....Canada.... cannot make such changes there is no hope that the less affluent and less educated countries of the world will make them. If these changes are not made on a planetary scale and if we fail to do our part, the future will not be a pretty place for our descendants. We will not have a second chance to get it right. ....
Strategic Voting....
Apart from making the point that we have an unprecedented challenge facing us, one that can only be addressed by transformational change, the other point that needs to be made is that the present government does not reflect the views of the electorate. For example in 2006 here in Ottawa West - ....Nepean.... the Conservatives won 25,000 votes while the center-left parties won 32,000. Yet while Mr. Baird in a very real sense does not represent the views of his constituents, he holds power as "Environment Minister" in a Conservative government which in turn reflects the views of only 38% of the people!
.. ..
Three Promises....
My value as an independent candidate is in what I symbolise, namely the necessity of transformational change and the fact that the center-left parties must unite to defeat the inadequate policies of the right. If the center-left parties think that their particular policy version is more important than protecting future generations from catastrophic consequences and if they will not unite to defeat the right, then they don't deserve your vote.
.. ..
I appreciate the paradox of running as an Independent while complaining that the center-left parties are splitting the vote. I have asked the NDP and the Green candidates to drop out of the race and have offered to do the same if they do. They have declined, arguing that you have the right to hear what they have to say. This course of action simply results in keeping the reigns of power in Conservative hands.
My solution to this problem is to ask all of you to vote for me. I will make only three promises to you and if you elect me I will keep them. My promises are:
- To faithfully represent the interests of my constituents and to help you with your dealings with the federal government,
- To represent the interests of the citizens of ..Ottawa.. to the federal government and to cooperate with other members of Parliament from the ....Ottawa.... area, and;
- To do everything in my power to address the clear and present dangers posed by global heating.
.. ..
Please vote for a sustainable economy and please vote strategically, preferably for me!
Thank you for your kind attention.
Yours truly,
David Page, M.A., M.Ed., M.B.A., L.L.B.
Barrister and Solicitor
Independent Candidate for Parliament
P.S. Your contributions to the dissemination of this message are welcomed. Tax receipts for monetary contributions can be issued. Volunteers and other participants in the democratic process are needed and welcomed. You can contact me by email at audi.alteram.partem@gmail.com or through this website if you are a member.