3 September, 2007 Elections Jamaica: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
You know something, analyzing politics is not such an easy job. I did this for my blogs and my readers. Maybe I should stick with my farming. I grow some big pumpkins and corn whenever I want to. Nature can be kind sometimes. Well my corn was blown down by Dean but they are standing straight up now, even with some support and are very tasty.
Jamaicans went to the polls September 3, 2007 to elect a new government. Sixty seats up for grabs. Voter turnout was estimated at about 60%; as against 72% by the police, military and election day workers that was done earlier. The initial count suggests about 31 seats for the opposition JLP and 29 for the PNP. Another count will be done within 24 hours or so to see if there are any changes in the outcome. This is where politics gets really interesting.
The PNP President and Prime Minister, Portia Simpson in a brief statement from her party headquarters, has not accepted the results as final, due to what she sees as some seats too close to call, other obstacles and possible breaches of the Constitution and will speak on this later.
Opposition Leader Bruce Golding later addressed supporters at his party HQ. It is obvious that although the numbers are in the JLP's favor currently, that he is cautiously optimistic, as a wise man. He too has questions regarding seats with close call. The highpoint is his instructions to supporters, to be civilized and await the finals. I hope they understand and act accordingly. Whether or not the counts change, Bruce will and must show the mettle of a true leader henceforth, in the interest of Jamaica. The same is required of Portia.
The PNP lost two seats to the JLP, which were held by PNP candidates, who were also ministers of government. These two seats in particular currently, are of great importance when looking at the initial total outcome. Currently my understanding is that JLP picked up 4 PNP seats, while the PNP picked up 1 JLP seat. These 4 seats lost by the PNP are to the south side of the island, which has been heavily impacted by Hurricane Dean. Was Dean a critical factor and what direct impact did Dean have on such voters, especially in the two PNP held/ministerial constituencies? Francis Tulloch was pulled out of retirement by PNP but did not win, although presenting a good challenge. Any gain is a lost somewhere, whether before or after.
As a matter of fact, I learned a lot about Jamaican politics that I did not set out to. Things I did not know. Some old data hanging around before I was even conceived and some brand new.
The Jamaican media seem to have brought out some of the best and sharpest analysts for this exercise. None of the traditional analysts were willing to put their "heads on the block" openly, prior to the elections and make a call. This suggested that the data before them was in flux. Constantly changing. Not calling, in a sense is very prudent, especially if one's reputation or credentials is dependent. Unless one is willing to go out on a limb, as one young TV analyst did and got it right to this point. Brave young man and a leader in his field.
Reviewing some of my earlier blogs, some pointers stood out.
From the first related blog, former Miss Jamaica World Lisa Hanna secured her seat as a first-timer.
Bruce was not too satisfied with the election date when initially announced on the July 8, 2007 but should realize by now that even mother nature has its input, whether we like it or not. And maybe, just maybe, to his advantage.
Obviously, most Jamaicans are much brighter than the Bustamante Era, from interviewers to analysts. In the Bustamante Era, many would not have been so privileged academically or otherwise.
The leadership problem that affected the JLP earlier may have been sorted out by Bruce, based on the support garnered.
Portia Simpson's call for violence free elections has been dampened by some recent acts by persons believed to be from both parties as well as criminal opportunists.
Portia had until October 2007 to make the call if desired; and even up to about February, 2008 if necessary, as in case of disasters or unnatural events.
The following paragraphs underlined are from earlier blogs, dated about the 3rd August, 2007.
I like to jumble numbers sometimes and speculate to see outcomes. Sometimes I am right and sometimes, not so right which makes me reasonably normal. I don't have to be right to enjoy the exercise, but what if?
Portia is Jamaica's 7th Prime Minister. Jamaica has 7 National Heroes, one of which is a woman known affectionately as 'Nanny'. Portia knows this and is a part of her platform speech. On the 8 of the 7, 2007 Portia chose 7 of the 8 for nominations day and 27 of the 8 for elections day. Nominations Day to Election Day = 21= 3 times 7. Or using my imaginary deck of cards, 3/7 or 3/3/4 or 3/3/3/ace.
Can Portia (PNP) win this election with 37 seats and Bruce (JLP) at 23? Don't get too deep in this numeric jumble.
To arrive at the above, no known mathematical formula was involved in any systematic manner. As I called it, a "numeric jumble", all based on irrational data. Jumble has been defined as: mix in confusion or a confused heap or muddle.
Regarding my imaginary deck of cards, and a ratio of 37:23 is somewhat good, realizing the many endless possibilities. At least there are some resemblance, and using current initial data, (37:23) and (31:29), in comparison to some internal and external polls that predicted landslides. In a more humorous way, next time I may just look more keenly to ID the face or symbol. Hope you find this funny. The Ace.
On another note, also political in a sense is the Digitel's rising star contest. The following is an excerpt from earlier blog.
Congratulations to the contestants in the Digicel's rising star contest. Three females and two males at this point providing top class entertainment. Males have won the contest since its inception but this year, I'm going out on a limb like Shirley Maclaine and predict a female winner.
I like to look at entertainers, as I do comment at times in blogs as I perceive.
Interestingly, I watched the elimination of one contestant, a male. This leaves three females and one male. This by probs, suggest a female outcome. The most important part however was to see this young man falter in some way, all based on an inexact mathematical principle referred to as probability. An Intangible. This is really funny.
This piece of data in hindsight, comes in handy and is from a preceding blog.
At the end of the debates with Portia and Bruce, some embedded TV punters and so-called analysts with their own agenda and with a maximum point scale of 10 scored as follows:
- Portia 6: Bruce 8.5
- Portia 7: Bruce 8
- Portia 6 : Bruce 8
- Portia 6 : Bruce 8
The 8.5 given Bruce was from an NDM rep, of which Bruce was a member and whom strongly supports Bruce, although providing candidates for the elections. Another 8 points given Bruce was from an academician. That's his job. He came expecting certain behavior from Portia vs. Bruce to satisfy his ego. From these four 'analyst', Portia accrued an average 6.25 while Bruce had 8.125, which is a difference of less than 2 points. This greater accrual by Bruce however would bring Bruce on par with Portia, since he was lagging behind in some aspects. If transferred to the party, this accrual may only be significant if in close calls directed at a specific constituency. This percentage difference is insignificant, when compared to the total voting population and the expected turnout. It carries no real value, if assumed gains occur in areas that are JLP strongholds.
Eliminating the 2 predeterminants above, the percentage accrued would be even less important. This is in no way scientific or conclusive.
What the data suggest is that using 4 persons of a population of 2.5 million is using a data sample of less than 1%, as a matter of fact, about 0.00008% . The 8.5 accrued by Bruce vs 6.25 for Portia, as a function of the total, suggest about 56% for JLP and 44% for PNP.
This would mean about 34 seats for Bruce to 26 for Portia. And it gets even more interesting without the 2 predeterminants.
Regarding the preferences of my grandniece, she is just a little girl, and the outcome is of no real importance and like most kids enjoy the couple extra holidays, maybe to play dolly house but is looking forward to school soon and run her classmates 'hot'.
Kindly visit my onlines stores please for some unique jamaican fashion using the links below:
http://www.7jamaica.blogspot.com
http://www.cafepress.com/2007jamaica
http://www.zazzle.com/jonbret
http://www.cafepress.com/jonbretjamaica