Grading Theo Epstein

July 8^th, 2007

Overall Grade: C-

On today's radio show, we had a caller who asked why it seems Theo's moves are either feast or famine.  While we can't answer why this is, it was an apt description.  Two of his three biggest acquisitions (JD Drew and Julio Lugo) have turned out to terrible; the other (Matsuzaka) has turned out very well.  There is the same split for his smaller deals, where signing Romero, Mirabelli and and Piniero has gone badly, but signing Snyder and Okajima and trading for Donnelly have turned out very well.  Overall, though, the amount of dead money he has created in Drew and ..:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Lugo outweighs the good he has done, and Theo earns a C-.

Theo's moves since end of the '06 season

• 10/13/06: allowed Carlos Pena to leave via free agency             F
• 42 runs, 19 hrs, 50 rbis, .287 BA, .994 OPS

It's hard to fault Theo for not seeing Pena's explosion in the first half.  But, he has to be held accountable for missing it, so he gets an F for this one.

• 11/30/06: signed Hideki Okajima to 2 year/$2.5M deal           A+
• 41 IP, 2 wins, 4 saves, 37 K, 0.88 ERA, .78 WHIP

The counterpoint to Pena.  Theo couldn't have seen the amazing results, but, regardless, he credits credit. And that performance at that salary makes it an A+.

• 11/17/06: signed Alex Cora to 2 year/$4.0M deal                    B
• 16 runs, 2 hrs, 15 rbis, .281 BA

Good value in signing this productive role player for short money.

• 12/13/06: signed Julio Lugo to 4-year/$36M deal                     F
• 34 runs, 4 hrs, 38 rbis, 21 sb, .190 BA, .279 SLG

A terrible signing.  Sorry, Red Sox fans, but the Lugo you see right now is the real Lugo.  Add in last year's failed tenure with the Dodgers, and Lugo now has an OBP of less than .550 in his last 162 games.  At this point, he shouldn't be playing in the majors.  Instead, he's collecting $36M in guaranteed money from the Sox over the next four years.  Worse, Francona is going to have to manage getting Lugo continued playing time to justify the signing when he should be going with someone else.

• 12/14/06: signed Daisuke Matsuzaka 6-year/$103M deal          A-
• 114 IP, 10 wins, 119 K, 3.53 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

He's young, is pitching well and has the potential to be dominant.  Well worth the money.  The Yankees got Kei Igawa for roughly half of what the Sox paid for Daisuke, and Igawa is providing about 1% of the Daisuke's value.  The Yankees will regret this error for the next 6 years.

• 12/15/06: acquired Brendan Donnelly for Phil Seibel                  A
• Donnelly: 21 IP, 2 wins, 15 K, 3.05 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
• Siebel: waived on 5/28 by Angels

The Sox essentially get Donnelly for nothing, as Seibel was released by the Angels.  And, the Sox get him for cheap money - $1.4M.  A good power arm for the playoffs.  What were the Angels thinking?

• 12/15/06: signed JC Romero to 1 year/$1.6M deal                    F
• 22IP, 1 win, 1 save, 15 K, 2.78 ERA, 1.90 WHIP
• Released

Any time you release someone you just signed, it's not good.

• 12/15/06: signed Doug Mirabelli to 1 year/$0.7M deal               C
• 3 runs, 3 hrs, 9 rbis, .189 BA, .324 slg

There's not much left to Mirabelli's game.  At least they didn't pay much to retain him.

• 1/4/7: signed Joel Piniero to 1-yr/$4.0M deal                            C           
• 30 IP, 1 win, 16 Ks, 5.04 ERA, 1.62 WHIP

Not much value in this signing.  It's a lot of money for a middle reliever who isn't really producing.

• 1/12/7: signed Kyle Snyder to 1-yr/$0.5M deal                       B+
• 32 IP, 1 win, 25 K, 2.81 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

A good swingman for cheap money.  A good value.

• 1/26/7: signed JD Drew to 5-yr/$70M deal                             D-
• 46 runs, 6 hrs, 33 rbis, 1 sb, .263 BA, .401 SLG, .775 OPS

Another terrible signing.  Almost no production from someone who is being paid $14M per year.  Looking at Drew's historical performance plus his injury history, we question the wisdom of this signing.  Of course, we're not alone in this assessment.  We can't recall anyone saying this was a good move.  It looks like Theo thought he knew something no one else did – and he was wrong.

• 2/14/7: lost Lenny Dinardo to Oakland A's                             F
• 53 IP, 3 wins, 27 K, 3.04 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

Dinardo has been a valuable swingman for the A's, for cheap money.  Teams never want to give up on this type of contribution.  This is similar to letting Carlos Pena go, in that Dinardo has been a surprise.  But Theo needs to be accountable because he didn't see it coming – and that's his job.