Obama wins. What an anti-climax. McCain's given up on contesting any blue state but Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, and has given up on keeping Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico.
He's behind by 15% in both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. He's also behind in Virginia by a substantial margin and will likely lose. McCain's only path to victory is to hold all of the red states he hasn't given up on and win Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. He wins with 272-266:
If he loses even one of the big three eastern battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Florida, or Ohio, he loses. Obama wins 287-251:
Obama wins 286-252:
Obama wins 293-245:
But.... McCain's way behind in a lot of red states, not just Virginia. Even if he somehow pulls off winning in Pennsylvania, he's probably going to lose North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Montana, and Omaha. Obama 379-159:
