PROFORECASTS 10/18/07 THU (Premium with Subscriber and Free parts)
Accuracy yesterday: 89.3%, UP +3575 in futures pips
Best to Use ProForecats and Sample Portfolios:
http://proforecasts.com/guide.htm
To Be a Subscriber or Premium by 9amET:
www.propredict.proforecasts.com/subscribe.htm
To Receive the Free Weekly ProForecasts by Sunday:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ProPredictPredictions/
Today's Featured Article: http://www.investors.com/
Hold on futures, ProFunds and options for today. Stocks of the Day, Example Portfolio, options and futures all beat the market averages except one (CBS MarketWatch). Consider the list of ProStocks just emailed out and listed below as the Stocks of the Day for premium subscribers. Check results right below as of this week we are still ahead of the markets. I still predict the DJIA will be at 14250 by the end of the year.
With 5-10% in futures that would give a portfolio return of about 35-45% (way ahead of the market). Shows that even with less than perfect predictions, you can make an above-average profit. You only need to be accurate 76.5% to make a significant profit. InvestorTools states, "80% of all mutual funds perform under the market."
Results as of Last Week: (add 6.7% for 5% futures, 13.4% for 10% futures)
UP 7.9%, 10.2% annualized in CBS MarketWatch!
UP 10% SP500
UP 13% DJIA
UP 13.8%, 18.0% annualized in DIA!
UP 14.5%, 18.8% annualized in SPY!
UP 15% Nasdaq
UP 17.8%, 23.1% annualized average in stock portfolios since 2003!
(For all major funds the three year annualized return is from 3.49% to at best 20.89%.)
UP 22.0%, 28.6% annualized in QQQQ!
UP 24.5%, 31.8% annualized for Stocks of the Day!
UP 32.0%, 41.7% annualized in ProFunds!
UP 102.7% (133.5% annualized) in futures (all yr-long funds stay same for long-term)!
UP 118% annualized in Recommended Stocks in four days (1.9% in four days)!
>>>Free ProForecasts: World Markets Weekly!
(Subscriber and Premium below if subscriber):
Weekly Market Forecasts and Last Week's Results: 100%
Still practicing on world markets for now.
US:
DJIA (14,093.08) week flat/up (accurate last week)
SP500 (1561.80): this week flat/up (accurate last week)
Nasdaq (2805.68): this week flat/up (accurate last week)
TNotes (102-11): this week flat/down (accurate last week)
Australia: ASX 200 Index (6748.90) flat/up (accurate last week)
New Zealand: NZX 50 FF Index (4313.23) flat/up (accurate last week)
Japan: NIKKEI Index (17,331.17) flat/up (accurate last week)
Hong Kong: Hang Seng Index (28,838.37) flat/up (accurate last week)
China: SHSE-SZSE300 Index (5737.22) flat/up (accurate last week)
Qatar: DSM 20 Index (8497.89) flat/up (accurate last week)
India: BSE SENSEX 30 (18,419.04) flat/up (accurate last week)
UK: FTSE 400 (6730.70) flat/up (accurate last week)
Germany: DAX (8041.26) flat/up (accurate last week)
France: CAC 40 (5843.95) flat/up (accurate last week)
>>>Subscriber ProForecasts: ProFunds, Options, Stocks of the Day,
Stocks per Day, LT Stocks! (Premium below if subscriber):
UltraBull 79.96 +0.27
Total so far: +7.26
From previous position: +4.15
From previous position: -10.15
From previous position: +24.93, total so far: +26.21; 32.0%; annualized 41.7%
Options:
DIA: 139.16 +0.0
Total so far: +6.22
From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007: +1.87
From previous positions: +11.35, total so far: +19.44; 13.8%; annualized 18.0%
SPY: 154.25 +0.47
Total so far: +6.95
From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007: +0.68
From previous positions: +14.95, total so far: +22.58; 14.5%; annualized 18.8%
QQQQ: 53.55 +0.68
Total so far: +3.60
From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007: +1.41
From previous positions: +6.60, total so far: +11.61; 22.0%; annualized 28.6%
Stocks of the Day:
GS 227.62 +2.79
MS 65.81 +0.51
TGT 63.42 -0.24
CAT 77.13 -0.62
BHP 82.86 +0.86
BA 95.59 -0.35
RIG 113.60 -1.00
MDRX 25.22 +0.17
NUE 57.15 +1.45
RIO 34.66 +0.43
Total So Far: +46.06
From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007: +48.19
From previous portfolio closed Thursday, August 11, 2007: -24.97
From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007: -13.3
From previous portfolio closed Monday, April 23, 2007: +72.5 annualized 25.1%
From previous portfolio closed June, 2007 +72.9 annualized 15.2%
Total +218.06, 24.5%; annualized: 31.8%
Stocks to Consider for Significant Movement per Day This Week:
(consider buying now or the day before)
NONE at this time; all cash for now.
Twelve Stocks to Consider for Long-Term Portfolio:
Including price and their ranking on MSN Stock Scouter 1-10
WHR (112.40), 7
BDK (95.19), 8
ATI (115.18), 6
BGC (65.57), 9
HON (57.79), 8
ASD (57.02), 6
JCI (109.91), 8
MDR (70.65), 6
FWLT (95.91), 6
CAT (74.88), 7
TEX (82.34), 9
DE (120.00), 7
Total: 999.05
Now: 1007.42 0.08%
>>>Premium ProForecasts
% is accuracy yesterday;
Quote is yesterday's close;
no * = inaccurate;
d = down (usually indicating stay in position);
s = sideways (usually within 0.5% indicating do nothing);
u = up (usually indicating stay in position)
(if capitalized, forecast has changed since last forecast, usually indicating a potential trade or close position)
PROFUTURES-Finance/Energy (67%)
DJIA 13,892.54 ** S
SP500 1541.24 ** S
Nasdaq 2792.67 ** S
Note10yr 103-12 S
Gold 765.50 ** u
Silver 13.785 ** su
Copper 358.90 S
Oil 87.27 * u
HOil 231.39 u
NGas 7.41 ** su
Example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-FE: DJ106a20S SP1195.70S NA1576S NT1112.9s GD423.5SD SL6.65sd
CP140.15sd OL48.28S HO134.38u NG60.80sd
PROFUTURES-Farm (90%)
Wheat 821.50 ** sd
Corn 362.50 ** su
Soybeans 999.25 ** su
BeanOil 40.15 ** su
Cotton 63.56 ** sd
Cattle 97.50 ** su
Hogs 57.50 ** d
Sugar 10.13 ** su
Coffee 129.55 d
Cocoa 1875 ** SD
example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-F: WH296.5sd CN196d SY513.5d BO28.88u CT46.71su CA91.12u HG75.57su
SG8.84sd CF104.4SU CC14.96d
PROFUTURES-Curriencies (100%):
AustralianD .8903 ** su
GBP 2.0370 ** su
Canadian$ 1.0278 ** u
Euro 1.4248 ** su
Yen .8646 * d
Swiss .8526 ** sd
Real: .5491 ** s
Peso: .092100 ** s
US$ 77.835 ** sd
Yuan (to $): 0.0835 ** s
example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-C: AUD75.33sd GBP18599d CAD81.79SD EUR130.4d JPY98.16su CHF84.16sd
RL.4615s PS.091050s USD83.46su
PROFUTURES-Forex (100%):
AUD/USD: .8932 ** su
GBP/JPY: 237.57 ** su
GBP/USD: 2.0399 ** su
EUR/GBP: .6975 ** s
EUR/JPY: 165.71 ** su
EUR/CHF: 1.6756 ** su
EUR/USD: 1.4229 ** su
USD/CAD: .9734 ** sd
USD/JPY: 116.46 ** s
USD/CHF: 1.1775 * s
example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-X: A/U.7570sd C/Y223.51s G/U1.8650sd E/G.6759s E/Y133.46sd
E/F1.5434s E/U1.3023sd U/C1.2206s U/Y102.48s U/F1.1849su
>>>Results:
All documented and linked at www.proforecasts.com/results.htm
Futures: 2007: +473; 2006: +3855; total +4390
Futures (www.mocktrading.com):
2003-2006: 1020.6%
2006: 219%
2007: 56.7% (annualized 95.1%)
Stocks: CBS MarketWatch (http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/):
2006: 53.21%
2007: 2.19% (3.67% annualized)
Marketocracy (www.marketocracy.com): average: 20.4%
Portfolio-Conservative: 2003-2007: 89.5%; annualized: 20.5%
Portfolio-Aggressive: 2003-2007: 106.7%; annualized: 24.6%
Portfolio-Speculative: 2003-2007: 78.6%; annualized: 18.1%
Portfolio-2006-2007: 29.6%; annualized 18.5%
>>>Documentation:
The Yahoo group is the main group where the predictions have been listed since 2003 but the ProForecasts are also listed by 9:25amET at:
ProForecasts site: http://www.proforecasts.com/today.htm
BayStreet.com: http://www.baystreet.ca/forums/forum.cfm?FID=13
Blogger: http://profutures.blogspot.com/
Google-Groups: http://groups.google.com/group/propredictions/?msg=new
MySpace: http://blog.myspace.com/propredict
MSN: http://groups.msn.com/ProForecasts/_whatsnew.msnw
Topica:
http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredict/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626777
http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958626980
http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions1/prefs/subscribers.html?flush=cache&sid=958627022
>>>Sources We Summarize to Find Consensus:
- Investor’s Business Daily Top 100
- Channeling Stocks
- Guerilla Trades
- Morningstar
- Zacks
- ValueLine
- Barron's ("Barron's Effect")
- CNBC ("CNBC Bounce")
- Mad Money
- Saturday Fox Business four shows (Bull & Bears, etc.)
- over 12 more investing newsletters
- over 24 more 'tips" sources
We read and listen to these respectable sources to obtain the stocks and investments that have great fundamentals, sector and technical analysis (why duplicate what these sources already do well), then use the summary and consensus of them to pick from for our intuitive analysis. If you have any other sources, you think we should be considering, please let us know. Thanks!
>>>Market Timing Accuracy Requirement:
*1"one must be able to predict the market with at least 83% accuracy,
a predictive ability that would be extremely difficult for even the
best market timer to sustain...If one compares the market timer's
return to that of a portfolio of stocks and cash weighted to have the
same standard deviation as the market timer's portfolio, the result
is that the market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to
perform better than the passive portfolio of the same risk. So even
after adjusting for risk, a significant predictive ability still is
required." (William Sharpe, "Likely Gains from Market Timing",
MBA-Finance Dept). http://www.quickmba.com/finance/invest/timing/
>>>Example Portfolio:
XOM 94.80 +0.06
MHS 90.30 +0.09
EPD 32.06 +0.09
RIMM 114.23 +4.14
FCX 110.63 -0.31
COP 87.46 -0.34
GOOG 633.48 +17.48
T 41.93 +0.11
DE 150.60 -0.44
FWLT 150.18 +1.95
Total so far: +142.07
From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007: +39.81
From previous portfolio closed Friday, August 11, 2007: -9.81
From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007: -46.21 Total so far: +137.15
>>>Subscriber Questions and Answers;