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Most blogs seem designed to elicit an emotional response from the reader. This one’s goal is to get people to say "Oh... I hadn’t thought about that." Put your thinking cap on, you’re gonna need it.
Marc

Marc MacYoung


Last Updated: 11/18/2009

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Gender: Male
Status: Married
Age: 49
Sign: Capricorn

City: Castle Rock
State: Colorado
Country: US
Signup Date: 1/29/2007

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Friday, October 09, 2009 
This is a VERY interesting article that will help you understand the difference between science, junk science and News. (Unfortunately the last two are closely related)

http://www.bazian.com/pdfs/HowToReadANewsStory_vers03_26Nov08.pdf

Pay close attention to the part about 'Conference Abstract.' That means it hasn't been peer reviewed yet to see if the idea actually holds up or has more holes than a spaghetti strainer.

Peer review is not blogging, nor is it Kipling-esque monkeys dancing around chanting "This is true, we all say so." It's rough. I often refer to the scientific process as getting 'jumped into a gang.' (The newcomer has to fight everyone in the gang to prove his worth to join.) If you come up with a scientific idea, there are a lot of other very smart people who are going to throw that idea a beating. If the idea stands up to this smack down, THEN and only then does science accept it as fact.

And that's what gives us junk science. Someone gets an idea, presents it as an abstract and the news prints it as though it is carved in stone and already scientifically approved. In fact, a big grumble among scientific type is when someone goes running to the press to get their idea published as THE TRUTH (tm) before it has been fully tested and peer reviewed.

Here's an important thing you may not know. Do you know the difference between
a hypothesis
a theory
and a law?

It's got everything to with being tested and found to stand up (surviving the smackdown).

A hypothesis is an idea that a smart person came up with about a subject.

The dictionary says: A proposition or set of propsitions, set forth as an explanation for the occurrence of some specific group of phenomena either asserted merely as a provisional conjecture to guide investigation.

In other words, it's an idea. An idea that you need to check out to see if it's true.

And that DOESN'T mean it's true because a bunch of people want it to be true. In other words just because someone says "this is how it is" doesn't make it so. This is where the news and publishing industries really muck up people's understanding of science and promote junk science. (As in don't bother going through peer review, run out to the press or get a book published ... folks will believe it's true because you have letters behind your name OR because you're getting them all riled up).

A theory on the other hand is a hypothesis that is halfway through the being jumped in process. There's been some people beating on it for a while and it has withstood what has been thrown at it so far.  Does it work here? Yes. Does it work there? Yeppers. Does it still hold true over there? We don't know, we haven't tested it under those conditions yet.

If it falls down over there, then it's back to the drawing board with the theory.

There is however an interesting exception. That is the Theory of Evolution. There is NO theory that has been as well tested, reviewed, studied and tried to figure out than evolution. It works, they know it works and they got the proof. So why is it still a theory?

Because they haven't figured out HOW it works.

That's the booger. Does evolution work over time or in giant spurts? Uh... yes. Okay so how does it know to do which one? We don't know ... that's why it's still a theory. 

Laws however, are senior gang members. They've not only been jumped in, but they've kicked some ass. It's been tested and proved under all conditions (over here, over there and way over yonder) and found that it works. Most importantly scientists know HOW it works.

For example: Force = mass x  acceleration pretty much works everywhere until you get to quantum. In the physical world laws work reliably every time.

Here's a big issue though, courtesy of the media, news and publishing houses you're going to hear a LOT of hypothesis presented as if they were laws.

In fact, when a person with letters behind his name makes a statement of A=B, unless this idea has gone through the scientific process then what you're hearing is a hypothesis, NOT the undisputed truth.  But see new sources don't care about that slow and boring scientific process, that takes too long. They want to get their story out NOOOOOWWWWW!

So they're going to make it sound as if this "Hey, I got an idea" is as solid as the laws of gravity.

The link
http://www.bazian.com/pdfs/HowToReadANewsStory_vers03_26Nov08.pdf
gives you some ideas how to tell the difference. Because a study is just a tool in the whole peer review process. It isn't proof positive. Which also should make you kind of wonder about people who use studies to promote their agenda.
Nightowl Camille

 
A very nice article, Marc. Thank you for sharing it. Yes, it is surprising (or I guess not so surprising once you become sufficiently cynical) how sloppy and imprecise the media is about repeating things that are hypotheses as though they were absolute fact.

While sometimes the gang-like tendencies of science can keep new theories from coming forward in a timely manner -- I've read numerous times the man who linked stomach ulcers to bacteria had to finally give himself a bleeding ulcer by drinking a solution with that type of bacteria before his colleagues thought there might be any merit to the idea, even though he had lots of cases where patients with bleeding ulcers had been cured by antibiotics, and a lot of circumstantial evidence from finding that particular type of bacteria in the stomach of those with bleeding ulcers -- for the most part the system works fairly well. And it works better than the other alternatives, such as science by popular acclaim or science by blessings from the fourth estate (as you alluded to above).

Sometimes I do find the psychological studies to be interesting, but if I repeat them on my own blogs I try to be diligent about stating they are studies -- and not established fact.

Hope things are going well in Colorado and that you're warmer than we are -- we got a winter storm here in Montana the other day so it's 20 now and we're supposed to get down to 9 tonight.

 
Posted by Nightowl Camille on Saturday, October 10, 2009 - 12:23 AM
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David

 
 
This is good, but "law" isn't exactly the third stage. There's hypothesis and then theory, and that's it. "Law" is a related idea, but it's not strictly the third part of a sequence. You don't exactly promote theories to a higher rank.

Even if someone knew exactly how evolution worked, Darwin's theory wouldn't be renamed the Law of Evolution.

It's too wide a topic. That would be like having "The Law of Physics."

Laws, besides having been thoroughly tested, are very specific. It's often something that can be expressed as a mathematical formula, as in your own example.

You won't see Einstein's theory of special relativity (or his theory of general relativity) be promoted to a law someday, because it encompasses too many things. In contrast, the E=mc2 formula is specific and could be the expression of a law.


 
Posted by David on Saturday, October 10, 2009 - 9:11 AM
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Marc
Marc MacYoung

 
Actually thanks for pointing that out, I realized I'd kind of goofed in explaining that idea, especially by leaving out the idea that laws are VERY specific.  It is important for people to know that.

Conversely, when you're talking about 'specific' people tend to misunderstand. When people think of 'specific' they tend to think narrow (an inch wide, but a mile high). It's often difficult to explain how a law can be a mile wide, but just an inch deep and still be specific.

As you said, laws can usually be demonstrated mathematically. And F=m x a is an example of something that is very specific about the nature of movement. What it's not specific about is what is being moved. Or how that force is going to be expended (impact, friction etc). That's why I use the mile wide/inch deep analogy. There's also about a mile of other laws/formulas stacked on top of  F= m x a that are  going to effect the whole.

The reason I say it's important for people to know this 'specific, yet vague' thing about laws is often people are looking for a 'law' that a monolith. That is to say a mile wide, a mile deep and a mile in depth. In order for a law to be considered a law, a lot of the bells and whistles that make THE TRUTH(tm) in one set of circumstances must be stripped away, because they don't work in other circumstances. 

To me at least, that's the beauty of the scientific process. Before it is acknowledged as law, it must be proven in ALL kinds of circumstance. (e.g. F=m x a not only works with bullets and punches, but it's a huge factor in engineering roller coasters, designing brakes for trucks and cars and countless other safety measures. As I tell people, it isn't enough that you can generate force, you're structure must be such that you can deliver it.) Yes a law will work everywhere. But to get to that point, it has been shaved away until it's only about one specific element (an inch deep)

The idea of a law encompassing all elements and covering all the possible variables is wrong.  And that's another reason why someone promoting their pet hypothesis as 'law' is B.S. It might seem unquestionably true in certain circumstances, but it hasn't been tested out elsewhere. And thank you for pointing out the issue of specific nature of law, because a key for spotting when someone is trying to promote a hypothesis as a law is when it's too all encompassing.

 
Posted by Marc on Saturday, October 10, 2009 - 10:01 PM
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Kevin
Kevin Menard

 
You also have to consider the hierarchy of journals. Any journal has an editorial board and they tend to know each other. Reviewers are often chosen by the fact the editor knows you work in the area and that you also will actually review the paper in a reasonable time. So there is a bias and if you are honest, you try and work with that. Mostly scientists do. (see caveat below)

So you can publish crap if you pick a lousy journal. In a good journal, publishing something that disagrees with the reviewers can be done but its difficult. For most people trying to get tenure, in the publish or perish zone that entails, funding and publish comes more easily if you stay close to the orthodoxy. Despite the attacks, Superfreakomonics (sp?) was dead on that studies too far from the consensus are rare. they take more work to get out and then you have journals where they will refuse to publish opposition pieces (rarer in the experimental sciences that in the "study of existing data and model" sciences - after all, you can check experimental results).

At least, the peer review keeps the personal attacks out of it to a great extent. That's something no internet discussion group or news media has ever done.

 
Posted by Kevin on Sunday, November 01, 2009 - 8:44 PM
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