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Hammer of Truth



Last Updated: 11/17/2009

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Gender: Male
Status: Single
Age: 31
Sign: Libra

City: Washington, DC
State: Washington DC
Country: US
Signup Date: 5/30/2005

Who Gives Kudos:


Friday, December 05, 2008 

Category: News and Politics
Obama has finished filling the major posts in his administration.  I'll list them below and go into what I believe the overall cabinet tells us about Obama and the bipartisan ruling establishment in DC.

Vice President: Joe Biden
Secretary of State: Hillary Clinton
Secretary of Defense: Robert Gates
Treasury Secretary:  Timothy Geithner
Attorney General: Eric Holder
Commerce Secretary: Bill Richardson
Homeland Security Secretary: Janet Napolitano
UPDATE:
Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Eric Shinseki

Other key picks:
Chief Economic Advisor: Larry Summers
Chief of Staff: Rahm Emmanuel
UN Ambassador: Susan Rice
National Security Advisor: Gen. Jim Jones

Obama has been widely praised by the mainstream media for these picks, and is enjoying anywhere from 67-78% approval rating right now (much higher than Bush or Clinton or Bush Sr. had going into office), with similar approval levels for his picks.  Here are some of my thoughts:

1. Obama is a hell of a politician.  There is a reason why he knocked over famous establishment picks like Hillary Clinton and John McCain.  The guy is a very, very savvy politician.  I didn't think we'd see someone as naturally gifted as Bill Clinton for a long time, but Obama is showing impressive political intuition and skill.  He is making sure with his picks that he basically has the entire middle of the country to him, with not being too offensive to his left flank that he loses them.  That's why he is at around 70% support.  He has also neutralized two major establishment bases of power, the Bushes and the Clintons.  They will not throw him under the bus.  He neutralized the Bushes by keeping Gates.  If you don't know much about Robert Gates, think about this:  Bush Sr. (Poppy Bush), ran the CIA in the 70s.  He chose Gates to run the CIA for him in the late 80s.  Gates was involved in or knew about all the Bush dirt that he did in the 70s and 80s.  Iran Contra, etc.  Bush Sr. would never let a lightweight run the CIA. Gates is one of the smartest guys the Bush clan has.  He was brought in to W's cabinet to clean up Rumsfeld's mess.  Now he'll finish cleaning up Bush's mess in Iraq for Obama.  The Clintons are now personally invested in Obama's success with Hillary running the State department.  There's still an outside chance of Hillary running at age 68 in 2016.  She was too ambitious to sit in the Senate.  Even if she helped some kind of universal health care pass, people would contrast how Hillarycare died in 1993 while Obama got it passed.  Obama now coopts the legions of Clintonites who will talk up everything Obama and Hillary do as far as foreign policy.  Hillary will not be trying to cause trouble.  Obama is too popular for her to try shenanigans because they would be blamed on her. 

2. The economic crisis is real and the Establishment is suffering.  The bubble bursting in the last four months was not a planned destruction of the world wide economy.  Sure some people knew it was coming, but they didn't want to see it and they are trying to turn it around.  The big bankers stole hundreds of billions of dollars from the bailout "solution," but they are also worried about the global downturn.  Obama has the best guys the Establishment has on his team.  Larry Summers has been a top guy for a couple decades.  I believe he'll replace Bernanke when his 7 year term is up.  I don't know Geithner but if he was head of the New York Fed, you know he's one of the establishment's TOP, TOP financial guys.  The decades long scheme by the establishment and the federal reserve to print money and make money off of increasing debt is starting to show itself as an unsustainable model.  Once you turn everything into a credit card, like houses, eventually people max out all their credit cards and you can't think of anything else to give them as a credit card.   The dollar is strengthening compared to other currencies because every one is suffering so the most prolific currency looks the best long term.  The Establishment is NOT trying to crash the dollar right now.  They want Obama to use their top guys to turn things around and try not to crash the dollar even though their solution is to spend their way into creating economic growth.

3. The neocons have been pushed to the side.  Obama's foreign policy will not be neocon in nature.  It will be like the foreign policy of Bush Sr. and Bill Clinton.  This is by no means perfect, and definitely not fair or moral, but it's a lot better than the neocons running things in my opinion.  The bipartisan foreign policy establishment of people like Brent Scowcroft, Madeline Albright, Jim Baker, Colin Powell, Wesley Clark, John Kerry, etc. will influence Hillary, Jim Jones, and Joe Biden.  It won't be Bill Kristol and Paul Wolfowitz and Richard Perle.  Iraq has officially failed as a neocon mission.  Remember, Iraq was billed as being something that would be so successful that we will want to repeat the scenario in Syria, Iran, etc.  That has failed utterly.  Now the Establishment is just hoping that maybe the U.S. won't be embarrassed on its way out, and maybe the worst of the ethnic cleansing has already happened that come 2011, 2012, and 2013 you won't see several hundred thousand Iraqis die the way we've seen a million Iraqis die in the last five plus years.  Obama's foreign policy focus will be Afghanistan & Pakistan, not Iran, which is good as well.  You notice, you don't hear so much breathless news things about Iran and nuclear weapons.  Why?  Because it was completely made up in the first place.  Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program.  It was all neocon propaganda trying to get Bush and Cheney to attack Iran.  Now, with Iran's money troubles with the price of oil below $45, Obama and Hillary Clinton should have a fairly easy time getting Iran to agree to more inspections of their benign nuclear power program in exchange for economic incentives, thus making it look like they 'solved' the Iran problem.  The main thing is, Obama's establishment people aren't trying to start another phony war.  They have too many other things to do.  I'll talk about Afghanistan and Pakistan (and India) in another post.
UPDATE: Obama on Sunday made his pick of Sec. of Vet Affairs, General Shinseki.  This pick is a giant middle finger to the neocons.  If you remember, Shinseki was pushed out by Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, and the other neocons for having the audacity to tell congress that walking in to Iraq with only a couple hundred thousand troops would end very badly.  Of course he was correct.

4.  Obama's domestic policy will be a fairly standard democratic establishment one:  I've written many times before about when a democrat is in office, the establishment does certain things and when a republican is in office, the establishment does certian things.  Obama will be no different.  Eric Holder, a Clintonite, will run the justice department the way it was under Bill.  Which is actually an improvement compared to what Bush did with Gonzales.  Overall, there will be more regulations and more spending on people in need.  More spending on healthcare, education, employment programs, infrastructure development, etc.  Republican presidents increase spending just like Democrats, but the spending increases are focused in different areas.  Obama will increase spending on veteran benefits rather than a new missile defense system, for example.  Obama will increase spending on health without regards to religious qualms.  Although the Republican mantra is small government solutions, you have seen how the Republican establishment treats real small government proponents like Ron Paul.  Of course the problem for us out of the mainstream is that a fairly standard democratic administration will seem so good after the clowns who were there under the Bush administration.  Competence is already being seen as manna from heaven.  The bar is so low for Obama right now it's ridiculous.  And the only thing that could bring him down is the economy not turning around.  And as I wrote earlier in this post, the establishment definitely wants the economy turned around and they have their best people with Obama trying to turn it around.  If Obama fails to turn around the economy, it will be the entire financial establishment who has failed. 
Reddz Voice

 
Great blog! Obama has - as you say - already proven to be a hell of a politician. I appreciate his willingness to choose people with strong independent opinions to fill seats in the cabinet. We can look forward to more foreign diplomacy, a more steady economy [within four (4) years], a diverse government which more closely represents the diversity of America, and a better bi-partisan effort to get something accomplished. I'm excited to see how this pans out.


"Although the Republican mantra is small government solutions, you have seen how the Republican establishment treats real small government proponents like Ron Paul.
"

BINGO! The Republicans are elitists, exclusionary, and arrogant about their position. Anyone within their own party who dares to earnestly veer off of the beaten path becomes a leper. McCain's self-proclaimed "maverick" status doesn't count. One's Congressional vote must line up with one's words; and McCain falls severely short.
Ron Paul is the true party MAVERICK!

Peace and love...

Redd
 
Posted by Reddz Voice on Monday, December 08, 2008 - 3:07 AM
[Reply to this
The Truth

 
Picking up on your last sentence, the financial system has already failed( failed the people that is- for it has greatly benefited the 1% that run it). There is simply no way the economy can survive, unless there is 180 degree turn in foreign and domestic policy.

Having done basic research into his choices, I believe it tells us he plans to continue business as usual.. what do you think?
 
Posted by The Truth on Thursday, January 08, 2009 - 10:14 AM
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Hammer of Truth

 
I don't think it's even working that well right now for that top 1%. I think they are going to try and improve things in their minds, but the only way they know how to improve things is massive, massive spending and printing money. So we'll have over 1 trillion dollar deficits the next couple years, and hope that China never decides to really stop taking up our debt. The reason why China and the U.S. has each other by the balls is that if we stop spending, there won't be much of a market for Chinese goods so their economy will collapse too. So it looks like under Obama there will be more spending and more debt and the elite will hope things improve that way.
 
Posted by Hammer of Truth on Thursday, January 08, 2009 - 10:17 AM
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