So here's the scoop on the new MySpace/NBC/WSJ poll of new and lapsed voters that we just came out with. Obama has support of 69% of this key voting bloc, which is an increase from our last poll a month ago. This bloc makes up 13% of the total electorate, which means if they actually come out to vote, they could secure a win for Obama.
70% of these voters are extremely interested in the election and are likely voters. This is also an increase from our last poll, but it is still lower than the likely voter percentage (84%) of those that voted in the last election.
What does this support mean? At this level of support among new and lapsed voters, even if Obama only won half of all other voters (those who DID vote in 2004), he would win the presidency with 52.5% of the vote...again, only assuming that these voters actually vote either early or on election day on November 4. In fact, his support among all other voters could drop as low as 47.3%, and he would still win the presidency with 50.1% of the total vote based on the support of new and lapsed voters. (This is based on popular vote, not necessarily Electoral College).
Thus, if these voters actually come out to the polls, then their support will secure a win for Obama. So this voting bloc is the key to this election. Both Obama and McCain have been vigorously using MySpace and other online tools to reach out to you all (the energetic, online community)!
Some more info:
64% of these voters say no matter who wins, the country will be better off in 4 years. This means that regardless of party affiliation, a huge percentage of new voters think that the country is headed for a change in direction with a new President (this doesn't bode well for the standing of President Bush amongst these voters).
No matter who wins, new voters are demanding a robust agenda for the next administration, all filled with big picture items, like: Good jobs, fixing Wall Street, lowering healthcare costs, insurance for more Americans, Iraq, and lowering the federal deficit. No small task for any President!
All in all, this voting bloc is optimistic about the future, even if they overwhelmingly think the country is currently on the wrong path.
For more info, check out the full poll. And from now thru election night, continue to return to IMPACT (http://impact.myspace.com) and Decision 08 (http://www.myspace.com/decision08) for all things political!