Wild Cards in
Our Future
In
the January 2009 issue of Futurist Update, the World Future
Society’s free e-newsletter, we invited readers to submit their ideas of
“wild cards” that futurists need to be looking at critically right now.
This section showcases a few of the responses.
What is a wild
card? According to FUTURIST editor Edward Cornish, author of Futuring:
The Exploration of the Future, a wild card is “an unexpected event
that would have enormous consequences if it actually occurred.”
Many wild cards
are disasters, such as an asteroid striking the Earth. However, a wild
card might be highly beneficial, such as a revolutionary technology that
leaves zero carbon dioxide, or a surge of peaceful co-existence among
long-standing enemies.
The “advantage”
of disaster scenarios, in terms of futurists, is that they give clear
and urgent reasons for thinking ahead, whereas the possibility of a
pleasant surprise does not normally inspire a need for planning. Some
obvious exceptions to that complacency are when we unexpectedly receive
a marriage proposal or a job offer, or learn of a new baby on the
way—all of which require a great deal of futuring skills.
As you examine
the following wild-card scenarios, think about the trends that may lead
up to these surprise events, what might be done to prevent them (or
promote them, in the case of beneficial wild cards), and how you, your
family, business, and community might prepare for a world that has
suddenly become quite different.
And if you can
think of other wild-card scenarios, feel free to share them with us.
—Cynthia G. Wagner
Cynthia G.
Wagner is managing editor of THE FUTURIST. E-mail cwagner@wfs.org.
For more on
wild cards and other tools of foresight, see Futuring: The
Exploration of the Future by Edward Cornish (WFS, 2004), which may
be ordered at
www.wfs.org/futuring.htm.