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J!



Last Updated: 12/9/2009

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Gender: Male
Age: 30
Sign: Aries

Signup Date: 11/9/2005

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October 6, 2008 - Monday 

Current mood:  hungry
Category: News and Politics

I am in no way, shape, or form like Jerry Seinfeld. But I like to take a similar approach when it comes to blogs.

I blog about "nothing." I blog about small things that people usually don't pay any attention to. I enjoy bringing up things that nobody really thinks about on a normal day. But I have to write about something that's been so big, I can't pay attention to the smaller things until I get this out of the way. And now that I'm thinking about it, I can still bring the subject up Seinfeld-style.

What's the deal with the economy?

In particular, can someone explain to me, this $700 billion financial package that somehow donned a cape and tights and saved our economy single-handedly?

Once upon a time, it was a fad in this country to own your own home. You had to have a piece of the pie. You have to live the American dream. All the commercials on TV said so.

So people went out and got house. All the people in the world with enough money bought houses, and built houses, and got summer houses, and all of a sudden the rich people said "I'm good!"

And so banks needed to keep lending to stay in business. So they got the people who weren't exactly rich, but could still maintain a house off of a decent living. And all the people in the world with just enough money bought houses, and all of a sudden the not-so-rich people said "I'm good!"

And so banks needed to keep lending to stay in business. And who exactly is left? People who don't have decent credit. People who are not exactly financially sound. People who aren't "poor" or "broke," but people who have problems managing money or making correct financial decisions all of the time. For some reason, they're seemed to be a lot of those people. And the banks kept lending, and lending, and lending, and lending.

And then the unthinkable happened. And when I say unthinkable, I don't mean that this would not be imaginable at all. It just means that no one seemed to really care.

The "unthinkable" was that people started to not pay on their mortgages. There are a lot of things to consider, such as gas prices, people losing jobs and income, rising costs of food, or whatever. But for some reason, mortgages are not getting paid.

So now, banks are starting to crash and burn because of the decisions that they made in lending people money for houses that people ultimately could not afford. As a result of the failures of these financial companies, the stocks in these companies are going down, and people who invest in these companies are losing money.

Do I see a problem there? Yes, I do. And it's huge. But is a monetary gift from the feds really going to solve this thing?

It could, if the cash got into the right hands.

I haven't looked at every little detail of the bill, and don't know if everything I'm saying is right. But those people I trust oh-so-much that are called the media, says that most of that money is going directly to those corporations that are failing. There are a few things that benefit us, such as in an increased FDIC insurance max payout, and more educational and housing tax credits. The bottom line, however is that this bill will put the failing lenders on stable feet, and save the investments in those companies, and the other companies that are publicly traded.

I think that's a horrible idea.

Lenders have collateral of mortgages that end up failing. The collateral, oddly enough, is the house that they ended up financing. If someone fails to pay, then the house goes to the bank. Most of the time the bank will sell the house, and make enough money from the sale to take up the loan. And yes, the housing market sucks at this time, but the house isn't going anywhere. The land isn't going anywhere. Is waiting really going to hurt?

The stockholders and the investors? Well... I hate to say it, but the stock market is not a guarantee. Investing money in any form is a risk. Reading any prospectus will tell you that any investment has a chance of losing money. You mean to tell me that just because you're losing money in stocks means that you life is coming to and end and we need a bailout bill to save it? I personally don't believe that things should work that way. Stocks are meant to grow over time, and gain money in the long run. If you want a shorter time on return, then more than likely you're taking a bigger risk on your investments, which means that you'll probably have better luck at a casino.

I've always been leery of investing. I've always believe that stocks should be priced based on the value of the company that we're investing in. However, they're bought and sold based on what people think those companies are going to do, and if the company meets, or sometimes exceeds, those expectations. And on top of that, most people trust investment firms with their money. They expect these firms to make money for them, when, for the most part, the firm is only worried about the people who have invested in it, and not the people it's serving. But I digress...

If this "bailout" is really going to work, why not give the money to the people who are losing their houses? The way the bill is now, the lenders get most of the money while keeping most of the property that it foreclosed. That's just like the lenders having their cake and eating it too. Giving the money to the actual homeowners would eventually work it's way up the system. Mortgages get paid, the finance companies have the payments--and capital that they are expecting to have, and the investors who put their money in these companies can at least be on the same level as investors from other industries. (Even though right now, it doesn't really matter what industry you're in.)

But of course, the things that make sense--at least to me--will never happen. And instead of this bailout helping the people it should be helping, it's only going to help the companies who were dumb enough to make a ton of bad loans in the first place, and the investors who were dumb enough to trust those companies with their money. It's not going to help the people who need to get back into their homes.

And in the meantime, there's still a fad out there that you have to own your own home. What's the deal with that?

Currently playing:
Spore
Release date: 2008-09-07
Enchan♥T♥ress

 
don't really know much about this bill... I know, shame on me...
Good info, J!... I'm going to check into this some more.
Your POV definitely makes sense to me.


 
Posted by Enchan♥T♥ress on October 6, 2008 - Monday - 2:50 PM
[Reply to this
J!

 
It was hard even for me to find "details" about the bill. And I just wonder about how this is going to "save" the economy. Thanks for the comment! :-)
 
Posted by J! on October 8, 2008 - Wednesday - 9:37 AM
[Reply to this
Angela the Philosophizer

 
If we divided the entire 700 bill up among all Americans it would give each person $2300, and that's just not enough to help most people.

From the banks’ perspective: You asked why they can't just hold the asset. The bank loans a person $500k to buy a house; so essentially, the bank has used its customers' money to pay for this home. The house is now worth $200k. The “owners” have stopped paying and it now belongs to the bank (technically it belonged to the bank before because it was mortgaged, but I digress). If the bank holds this house and waits for it to regain its value, not only have they lost the $300k from the devaluation of the home, but they have to continue to pay taxes on the property and they can't sell the house in this horrible market to even get the $200k that the house is worth now.

If the govt buys this bad asset for $150-200k and holds it until the value is $250+ then the taxpayers will get their money back and the bank will not have the bad debt on its books. Theoretically this could be a win/win situation.
 
Posted by Angela the Philosophizer on October 6, 2008 - Monday - 2:51 PM
[Reply to this
XOXOXO
Xoxoxo Xoxoxo

 
I agree with Angela. The government is supposed to be buying the property from banks and holding onto it until the market stabilizes. What I worry about is where the government is borrowing the money from and what the terms are. It feels like America could fall into the wrong hands because of the bad choices made. As for the homeowners losing their homes. I think you failed to mention that inflation, job losses, and gas prices may have something to do with people losing their homes. Sure, there's your property investor, who thought he could buy up a bunch of houses and flip them and found himself in a rutt when the market slowed, but there are also many people who lost their homes because of the condition of our economy.
 
Posted by XOXOXO on October 7, 2008 - Tuesday - 4:39 PM
[Reply to this
Lanne
Lanne Faith

 
just start stocking up on non-perishable food items and water, find an un-used missile silo near you, and print out all of ur writing's and put them in something that is water and fire proof. good luck my friend, good luck.

 
Posted by Lanne on October 8, 2008 - Wednesday - 8:48 PM
[Reply to this
MumbiLaaLaa

 
Problem is that we've gone beyond bailing out home owners and, in a way, financial institutions. First, we waited to nip it in the bud after investment banking went topsy turvy. this delay made foreign investors lose confidence and they began selling off all their stock, mutual funds, etc. They also went to banks by the millions and removed their liquid funds...
We all know banks don't operate with liquid funds, so there was nothing left for the multimillion $ investments, and future loans.

The other thing now is that this has created an international trend that is not soon to be absolved with simple mortgage forgiveness. An empire is falling and everyone is scrambling for cover. China could, in any moment, say 'give us our trillions of dollars back'. This won't happen because China's 1 exporter is US. So, China, europe, etc, instead of asking for their money back, are increasing their currency value to give foreign investors confidence in them. In the meantime, we're sitting on imaginary money. There is no $700billion!!! and this is the big problem! to fix us, we are digging ourselves into an even bigger hole by the minute.

read this article about why banking is in such a mess...the truth is that bad mortgages were just a snowflake in this ridiculous avalanche. it's deregulation so that banks could lend, borrow, and invest in 'future' assetts that are now never going to exist! Far beyond mortgages, it was about finding loops and fitting in them to make the largest return for that fiscal moment. They didn't care about future loss because they got to keep their payoffs and bonuses anyway!

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/business/28melt.html?partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

GREAT BLOG! I love this topic!
 
Posted by MumbiLaaLaa on October 9, 2008 - Thursday - 4:52 PM
[Reply to this