NOTE: Big Thanks to ESPN's HENRY ABBOTT for linking to this on his legendary TRUE HOOP blog.
Since they're both my preseason picks to reach the 2008 NBA Finals, I figured I'd lend a much-needed helping hand to the San Antonio Spurs and Boston Celtics, who both find themselves in a little hole after the first two games of the conference finals.
Let's start with the Spurs. Whenever Kobe Bryant is in the game, Tim Duncan and Bruce Bowen must be in the game. Sounds simple enough, huh? They're both perennial All-Defense first-team award winners so you'd think they'd be in the game 24/7 whenever 24 is on the floor.
But in the first two games alone, there has been 22:35 where Bryant played, while Duncan or Bowen (or both) sat on the sideline. In that span, the Lakers outscored the Spurs, 53-27. In that same span, Kobe dominated with 19 points, 6 assists and 0 turnovers in that 22 ½ minutes.
"YIKES!!!" is right.
In the 54:04 that Kobe had to go against Bruce and Timmy, the Spurs and Lakers are at a draw, 101-101. And Kobe only had 30 points (in 54 minutes, mind you—an incredible feat in slowing down a 33-point-in-41-minute playoff performer), 6 assists and 4 turnovers.
In Game 1 alone, the Spurs had a 57-40 advantage in the 28:55 that Duncan guarded the paint and Bowen guarded the perimeter against Bryant. Had they employed this strategy for just a few of the other 15 1/2 minutes, the Spurs would have blown the Lakers out.
And it's not hard to do. For example ...
Bryant typically takes his 3-to-4-minute rest at the beginning of the second and fourth quarters.
It's similar to what Duncan does, so by getting Bowen's timeclock on a similar schedule, you're easily in place to play every minute mano-a-mano with Kobe.
(UPDATE: I don't know if Gregg Popovich is a MySpace Friend of mine and read this, but he perfectly utilized this strategy in Game 3 Sunday. Duncan and Bowen were in the game for 33:21 of Kobe's 38:47--the longest period they've guarded him in this series. Remember, it was 28:55 in Game 1 and only 25:04 in Game 2. The result was an easy Spurs win--"You're Welcome, Pop!," LOL ... For those of you keeping score at home, the Spurs have a 170-159 advantage when Timmy and Bruce guard Kobe, and Bryant has been contained to 56 points, 7 assists and 8 turnovers in the 87:25 minutes those two NBA All-Defenders have guarded him. Contrastingly, when one or both of them is not in the game, Kobe and the Lakers have gone off--L.A. enjoys a 64-48 edge and Kobe tallied 23 points, 6 assists and 0 turnovers in only 28:01.)
Gregg Popovich is the master at these kinda things, so who am I to talk? In my opinion, he and Phil Jackson are 1a and 1b when it comes to best coaches in the game, not to mention master manipulators of the matchups.
But if I was setting up the minute rotations for the Spurs, I'd have my four key figures in this series all playing 40 minutes (Duncan, Bowen, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili). Then I'd sub in Ime Udoka—the Spurs' best bench player in the playoffs—for Ginobili and Parker, with Ginobili exiting at the four-minute mark at the 1st and 3rd quarters, while Parker rests for four minutes at the end of said quarters (Ginobili serving as his replacement, running the point).
I'd let Michael Finley play the four minutes each half that Bowen rests, divide up the big-man minutes between Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto (56 combined), and the Spurs would be able to tighten up their bench to match the talent of the Lakers' bench (Robert Horry and Jacque Vaughn have been two of the five worst playoff performers this season when using Player Efficiency Ratings, so I'd sit them in this series).
(UPDATE: Horry played such great defense on Lamar Odom in Game 3, I feel stupid for even suggesting this. That's why Pop's Pop, and I'm not.)
Kobe's accounted for, Timmy and Bruce keep their minutes consistent and the 2007-08 MVP is not allowed to shoot over Udoka countless times and take it to the paint over-and-over again when Duncan is taking a breather.
On the Celtics-Pistons front, I am amazed that Doc Rivers has refused to use one of his key road warriors. Leon Powe, who had an All-Star-like PER of 20.97 during the regular season, has virtually disappeared in the playoffs.
The 6-8 240-pound 24 year old has only played 28 minutes in the last 6 games. Somehow, Doc forgot how good this kid was and has gradually decreased his minutes from the Atlanta series (17.7 per game) to the Cleveland series (10.4) to this Detroit series (5.5).
Rivers has been going with the veteran P.J. Brown, playing the 6-11, 240-pound 38 year old a total of 57 minutes in the last three games, after only playing him 11.6 minutes in 18 regular-season games.
And while I know everyone loves P.J. as a leader and warrior, he hasn't offered much offensively.
On the flip side, Powe was a big road dog for the Celtics during the season, playing more minutes on the road (16.4) than he did at home (13.0) and seeing his per-minute stats equaling 20 points and 10 rebounds (with a 61 true shooting percentage) when you translate them to 40 minutes per game.
But for some reason, Rivers--a deserved Coach of the Year candidate--has fallen in love with Brown and his 10.28 PER, even when Brown's best stats—in the most recent three-game windfall—only translate to 13 points and 7 rebounds over 40 minutes.
I'd much rather have a 20 and 10 guy like Powe.
We're seeing Detroit showcase two of its young players off the bench in Rodney Stuckey and Jason Maxiell--and the world is falling in love with them.
Boston has someone just as talented in Powe, but the spark off the bench in the regular season is nowhere to be found in the postseason.
Everybody's wondering why Boston's offense has stagnated during the playoffs. The answer's obvious: Doc Rivers quit playing one of his best players.